Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[craptacular]

They're flying in circles ... must be looking for the true center.

[Stratosphere747]

They're flying in circles ... must be looking for the true center.

That what I started thinking..

Could be a reason why no VDM..

[mtm4319]

[PTPatrick]

I think at this point Skywarn, anything could happen...I would NOT be surprised at all if the track trends back west a little possibly more toward panama city. Now that we have handle on the short term and that has brought the overall cone eastward, I think we will still have to deal with the little problems of models wanting to recurve things too quickly in the 4 day time frame, that we often see when storms are moving through this area. I will be very interested to see how the NOAA info factors in tonight. At this point, nothing would surprise me, everybody from LA/MS all the way to NC should be watching Ernie like a hawk

[cycloneye]

They're flying in circles ... must be looking for the true center.

Also there are Haiti issues in terms of airspace.

[mtm4319]

They're flying in circles ... must be looking for the true center.

Yep...
http://img117.imageshack.us/img117/7702 ... n21ao5.jpg

[WindRunner]

They initially missed it . . . take a look at it with my comments.

SXXX50 KNHC 271719
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 17 KNHC
OK. Heading it like normal.
1709. 1742N 07349W 03049 0135 036 006 130 046 008 03230 0000000000
1710 1744N 07350W 03046 0135 028 009 130 042 012 03227 0000000000
1710. 1745N 07352W 03049 0134 012 010 140 030 011 03230 0000000000
1711 1746N 07353W 03048 0134 018 008 140 030 010 03229 0000000000
1711. 1747N 07355W 03047 0132 028 011 136 036 013 03225 0000000000
1712 1748N 07356W 03049 0134 051 016 128 042 020 03230 0000000000
1712. 1749N 07358W 03051 0137 057 021 120 056 024 03234 0000000000
1713 1750N 07359W 03045 0144 064 020 116 060 024 03236 0000000000
Now starting to head south and back east - a u-turn.
1713. 1748N 07401W 03050 0145 044 014 132 044 015 03242 0000000000
1714 1747N 07400W 03047 0136 023 009 132 038 011 03230 0000000000
1714. 1745N 07400W 03045 0137 327 004 132 036 007 03229 0000000000
1715 1743N 07359W 03050 0138 245 005 132 032 006 03234 0000000000
1715. 1741N 07359W 03050 0139 222 003 128 038 003 03236 0000000000
1716 1740N 07358W 03046 0139 227 005 124 044 010 03231 0000000000
1716. 1738N 07358W 03048 0138 241 007 120 048 010 03233 0000000000
1717 1736N 07358W 03049 0138 228 006 114 052 008 03233 0000000000
1717. 1734N 07358W 03050 0137 224 011 110 052 013 03234 0000000000
1718 1733N 07358W 03047 0136 263 007 112 050 010 03230 0000000000
1718. 1731N 07358W 03044 0136 266 011 112 048 011 03226 0000000000
1719 1729N 07358W 03054 0137 264 010 110 048 011 03238 0000000000
1719. 1727N 07358W 03044 0139 268 011 112 050 012 03230 0000000000
1720 1725N 07358W 03050 0141 274 013 114 052 014 03238 0000000000
1720. 1724N 07356W 03049 0143 255 013 112 052 013 03238 0000000000
OK - found it! Heading back on the NW track again.
1721 1724N 07354W 03046 0142 240 012 110 054 012 03235 0000000000
1721. 1725N 07353W 03051 0146 210 012 112 052 013 03243 0000000000
1722 1727N 07352W 03048 0144 198 011 116 050 013 03239 0000000000
1722. 1728N 07354W 03046 0140 200 008 114 050 009 03232 0000000000
1723 1729N 07355W 03048 0140 229 006 114 046 007 03235 0000000000
1723. 1730N 07356W 03046 0139 277 007 116 044 007 03231 0000000000
1724 1732N 07358W 03049 0136 253 007 114 046 009 03231 0000000000
1724. 1733N 07359W 03049 0136 243 006 110 050 006 03231 0000000000
1725 1734N 07400W 03048 0135 207 006 108 058 008 03230 0000000000
1725. 1735N 07402W 03047 0137 225 002 110 058 004 03230 0000000000
1726 1736N 07403W 03049 0140 149 004 110 058 007 03235 0000000000
1726. 1738N 07405W 03047 0139 196 005 114 054 007 03233 0000000000
1727 1739N 07406W 03048 0139 188 006 116 050 007 03233 0000000000
1727. 1740N 07407W 03049 0140 160 005 120 050 006 03236 0000000000
1728 1741N 07409W 03046 0140 151 006 120 048 007 03233 0000000000
1728. 1743N 07410W 03048 0138 135 004 120 046 005 03233 0000000000
1729 1744N 07412W 03048 0138 080 003 120 042 003 03232 0000000000

So if we don't have it within 5-10 minutes, then I'd get worried.

[Stratosphere747]

I've never heard about recon having issues with Haitian airspace. Cuba of course is another story...

[Javlin]

1713 1750N 07359W 03045 0144 064 020 116 060 024 03236 0000000000

Thats in minutes 63213.

[Wx_Warrior]

1200z GFDL has Florida panhandle...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

[Thunder44]

Flight level winds look much weaker than this morning so far.

Because they came in from the SE quad. According to the quickscat pass and common sense this should be the second strongest quad, but it is far from impressive. Still a possibility of better winds to the N and NE.

This looks weak even for the SE Quad. But we don't know if they even found the center yet.

[Pebbles]

here's the question though... I'm wondering how it can stay together going over cuba like that.

[PTPatrick]

I was afraid of that...

I cant wait to see some new NOGAPS and UKMET...

[Wx_Warrior]

Good point peb...best case scenario for all would be - IT WONT

[ronjon]

Here's a nice summary of Ernie by a MET from another site. Basically, there's two paths this storm can take - one NW through Cuba and then impacting the keys & the FL peninsula much further south or another one where the storm gets back under the subtropical ridge, rides more W-NW, and gradually turns NW and then N in the eastern GOM (more like the 06Z GFDL). I'll be anxiously watching which one unfolds as model guidance I think is of little help now.

http://flhurricane.com/blog.php?met=Clark

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 271731
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO 05L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 27

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.3 73.4 305./ 8.0
6 18.0 74.2 310./10.2
12 18.6 74.8 311./ 8.3
18 19.1 75.8 298./10.5
24 19.8 76.3 327./ 8.5
30 20.8 77.4 310./14.0
36 21.3 78.4 299./11.2
42 21.7 79.6 287./11.9
48 22.1 80.4 300./ 8.1
54 22.7 81.2 303./ 9.7
60 23.4 82.0 315./10.1
66 23.7 82.8 290./ 8.2
72 24.5 83.2 334./ 8.4
78 25.3 83.8 322./ 9.8
84 25.7 84.2 314./ 5.8
90 26.2 84.6 327./ 5.8
96 27.0 84.7 353./ 7.8
102 27.7 84.7 359./ 7.0
108 28.6 84.8 350./ 9.2
114 29.6 85.1 345./10.5
120 30.4 85.5 334./ 8.6
126 31.1 86.1 320./ 8.3



12z GFDL has a track to Florida Panhandle.

[JTD]

If it moved WNW/W without any NW/NNW jogs from the position it is at now, how much of Cuba would it cross before going into the GOM?

[WindRunner]

SXXX50 KNHC 271739
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 19 KNHC
1729. 1745N 07413W 03048 0138 019 006 120 044 006 03233 0000000000
1730 1746N 07414W 03049 0137 023 007 120 052 009 03233 0000000000
1730. 1748N 07416W 03047 0138 019 011 116 056 013 03232 0000000000
1731 1749N 07417W 03049 0138 022 013 112 064 013 03233 0000000000
1731. 1750N 07418W 03049 0139 042 016 104 072 017 03234 0000000000
1732 1751N 07420W 03048 0140 045 017 096 080 017 03235 0000000000
1732. 1752N 07421W 03048 0139 054 017 092 080 018 03234 0000000000
1733 1754N 07423W 03047 0140 057 020 096 078 020 03233 0000000000
1733. 1755N 07424W 03049 0140 065 022 090 084 023 03235 0000000000
1734 1756N 07425W 03047 0139 068 022 090 080 023 03233 0000000000
1734. 1758N 07427W 03049 0139 069 022 090 076 022 03235 0000000000
1735 1759N 07428W 03048 0140 074 021 090 078 021 03234 0000000000
1735. 1800N 07430W 03047 0139 075 020 092 074 021 03233 0000000000
1736 1801N 07431W 03048 0138 077 018 108 062 019 03232 0000000000
1736. 1803N 07432W 03048 0138 071 014 106 070 016 03233 0000000000
1737 1804N 07434W 03049 0140 081 017 092 082 018 03235 0000000000
1737. 1805N 07435W 03048 0141 088 017 088 086 018 03236 0000000000
1738 1806N 07437W 03048 0141 088 015 088 082 016 03235 0000000000
1738. 1808N 07438W 03048 0142 088 016 088 084 016 03236 0000000000
1739 1809N 07440W 03048 0141 089 016 090 080 016 03235 0000000000

Still NW quad.

[craptacular]

They're back on the SE to NW track ... hopefully we get a VDM now.

edit: Windrunner correctly pointed that out earlier ... I just wanted to see another full 10 minutes in a straight line.

[chris_fit]

84 degrees F of Dewpoint if that matters