Tropical Storm Chris

Eyewall · #1541 Postby **Eyewall** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:22 am

Do you guys see a bit of NW like motion?

x-y-no · #1542 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:24 am

Eyewall wrote:Do you guys see a bit of NW like motion?

Here comes the wobble-watching!

dwg71 · #1543 Postby **dwg71** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:25 am

Eyewall wrote:Do you guys see a bit of NW like motion?

Its been north of points for a while now. Its just too early to tell... One thing is for sure, the models do not have a good grip on Chris yet. Where he ends up is a huge question. Its still 8 days away from Western Gulf, if that is where he ends up, Gulf could look a lot different by then.

East coast of FL is not out of the question...

Zadok · #1544 Postby **Zadok** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:25 am

What will happen when Chris gets around the gulf stream?

#1545 Postby **deltadog03** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:26 am

WOW!!! there is an eye coming soon. Look at the latest VIS...its coming out soon...imo

#1546 Postby **Lowpressure** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:27 am

x-y-no wrote:
Eyewall wrote:Do you guys see a bit of NW like motion?

Here comes the wobble-watching!

I was about to post the same thing. When an eye develops, it will get even worse with the wobble watching.

Normandy · #1547 Postby **Normandy** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:28 am

If I were in the Keys, I would get out right now.....this might be a bad one.

#1548 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:30 am

Will we make three years in a row? Stay tuned.

Eyewall · #1549 Postby **Eyewall** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:30 am

Lowpressure wrote:
x-y-no wrote:
Eyewall wrote:Do you guys see a bit of NW like motion?

Here comes the wobble-watching!

I was about to post the same thing. When an eye develops, it will get even worse with the wobble watching.

I was kinda watching a loop of about 12 hours and looked a lot more northerly than WNW
yea i know that the wobbles can throw you off, so i try to look at longer loops

Scorpion · #1550 Postby **Scorpion** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:31 am

Normandy wrote:If I were in the Keys, I would get out right now.....this might be a bad one.

I agree. I really wish I wasn't going on a cruise now. This would be a great chase if it hit Florida.

DESTRUCTION5 · #1551 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:31 am

dwg71 wrote:
Eyewall wrote:Do you guys see a bit of NW like motion?

Its been north of points for a while now. Its just too early to tell... One thing is for sure, the models do not have a good grip on Chris yet. Where he ends up is a huge question. Its still 8 days away from Western Gulf, if that is where he ends up, Gulf could look a lot different by then.

East coast of FL is not out of the question...

Agree it is feeling a little more weakness than forecasted...RIGHT NOW anyways...We all know Katrina did a south dive so its not out of the question

Normandy · #1552 Postby **Normandy** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:33 am

You can't accurately determine the motion of a storm if it has no eye....so the wobble watching is ridiculous.

dwg71 · #1553 Postby **dwg71** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:33 am

Last discussion talked about a more northern trend in the forecast. Some have said south of FL and then on to TX from early on in the game. SE Fl is a real possibility. Miami to Daytona should be beginning early preps.

gtalum · #1554 Postby **gtalum** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:34 am

Scorpion wrote:
Normandy wrote:I agree. I really wish I wasn't going on a cruise now. This would be a great chase if it hit Florida.

Maybe you can convince the capain to chase it.

Eyewall · #1555 Postby **Eyewall** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:36 am

Normandy wrote:You can't accurately determine the motion of a storm if it has no eye....so the wobble watching is ridiculous.

try looking at radar...
you can see the center very clearly there... 8-)

dwg71 · #1556 Postby **dwg71** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:36 am

Normandy wrote:You can't accurately determine the motion of a storm if it has no eye....so the wobble watching is ridiculous.

I would have to respectfully disagree, the overall motion of the storm has been N of wNw since yesterday afternoon. It has a 310 heading as last discussion. 315 is NW.

x-y-no · #1557 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:37 am

Eyewall wrote:
Lowpressure wrote:
x-y-no wrote:
Eyewall wrote:Do you guys see a bit of NW like motion?

Here comes the wobble-watching!

I was about to post the same thing. When an eye develops, it will get even worse with the wobble watching.

I was kinda watching a loop of about 12 hours and looked a lot more northerly than WNW
yea i know that the wobbles can throw you off, so i try to look at longer loops

The thing is that it's pretty much impossible to accurately say where the surface center is under the convection based on sattelite imagery. So there's no way to know if a trend in the mean position of the convection is related to an actual change in track or just a change in the convection relative to the center.

Once we get an eye (assuming we do) we can very accurately track the center by sattelite, but then the wobble trap gets even worse, since strong cylones tent to move in a sinusoidal path.

Your basic method of looking at longer loops is the right way, but it's still not terribly reliable without an eye feature to track.

#1558 Postby **Pebbles** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:37 am

If and when the eye pops completely it goes from wobble watching to wobble debates

*snickers*

Yes, I've been around that past couple months... just not posting. Chris looks like he's been working out all night and now is flexing his muscles and showing off this morning. The 11AM should be an interesting read... and if chris continues at this pace no doubt will have 'cane status by 5pm. Am getting quite concerned for south FL and the islands. Would love to see some shear come and whomp on Chris' butt before he has too much more time to 'work out' and "bulk up".

#1559 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:38 am

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png
A lot of the model shifted northward on the 06Z run than last night.

#1560 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:38 am

Eyewall wrote:
Normandy wrote:You can't accurately determine the motion of a storm if it has no eye....so the wobble watching is ridiculous.

try looking at radar...
you can see the center very clearly there...

At that distance...you are looking upwards of 35,000 feet into the storm.

Not really the location of the low level center.

Tropical Storm Chris

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