Tropical Storm Chris

[gtalum]

Andrew had a lot more open water and a lot less land and shear to deal with. It was also a category 4 and 5 well before hitting the Bahamas.

[Derek Ortt]

feel free to continue discussing the storm here, since the previous has reached 25 pages


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Thread 2

[dixiebreeze]

Chris is now 3.5/3.5. I don't see shear being much of an influence on Chris at this point in time, not now nor in the GOM. There is a ridge, but that could weaken, so all we can do is wait and see.

[jpigott]

what is the name of that "box" (Herbert's box i think) where most hurricanes that strike south florida go thru, and is Chris going to go thru that box??

[MJA]

Derek (or anybody), what do you think are the chances of Chris turning N/NW once he enters the GOM?

[x-y-no]

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Thread 2

[jlauderdal]

what is the name of that "box" (Herbert's box i think) where most hurricanes that strike south florida go thru, and is Chris going to go thru that box??

20N/60W...its cleared it with room to spare

[swimaster20]

what is the name of that "box" (Herbert's box i think) where most hurricanes that strike south florida go thru, and is Chris going to go thru that box??

Just a quick note, the name is "Hebert's Box." (Pronunciation: A-Bear)

[mtm4319]

Here are the center fixes of the mission... I calculated a heading of 304° between the first and last... which cover roughly a 5.5 hour time period.

Thanks for doing that caculation, clfenwi! That makes sense to me, seeing it's nearly at 19N now.

By the way, when is the next recon?

Code: Select all

589
NOUS42 KNHC 011500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT TUE 01 AUG 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
         VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z AUG 2006
         TSPOD NUMBER.....06-063

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM CHRIS
       FLIGHT ONE                     FLIGHT TWO
       A. 02/1800,03/0000Z            A. 03/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 0303A CHRIS           B. NOAA9 0403A CHRIS
       C. 02/1700Z                    C. 02/1730Z
       D. 19.2N 65.2W                 D. NA
       E. 02/1730Z TO 03/0000Z        E. NA
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT            F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE
       A.  03/0600,1200Z
       B.  AFXXX 0503A CYCLONE
       C.  03/0500Z
       D.  20.0N 67.3W
       E.  03/0530Z TO 03/1200Z
       F.  SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE 6-HRLYS FIXES
       WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

    3. REMARKS: MISSIONS PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR SUSPECT AREA
       OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND G-IV MISSION ON T.S CHRIS
       CANCELED BY NHC AT 01/1100Z.

I'm not totally sure how to read this, but I would guess takeoff is at 1700Z, or at 1pm Eastern time.

[Eyewall]

You know what?
i think that the government needs to fund research to make intensity forecasting better..
this thing was not supposed to be a cane even past FL
now its almost one and its not even to PR..
lots of work to be done in the intensity forecasting

[Derek Ortt]

too soon to say

right now, I have to worry about possible Miami problems for obvious reasons

[Windsurfer_NYC]

It's ONLY this time of year that a storm in Chris's current location can make it to Texas.

It's all about the ridge.

I follow what you're saying, although according to WxUnderground, only one TS passing within 200 nm of Chris made it into the gulf in August:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200603_climo.html

[jlauderdal]

what is the name of that "box" (Herbert's box i think) where most hurricanes that strike south florida go thru, and is Chris going to go thru that box??

Just a quick note, the name is "Hebert's Box."

as in bobby hebert(saints qb), the guy was pretty effective but could never get them to the promised land, it would be terrible to be a saints fan

[flhurricaneguy]

when is it expected to turn to the west?

[tgenius]

too soon to say

right now, I have to worry about possible Miami problems for obvious reasons

Derek,at what point will you feel more confident with the model guidence? After G IV goes in and gets dropsondes data into them?

[Derek Ortt]

when they stop depicting a near hurricane as a tropical wave

[BatzVI]

Just an update from St. Thomas.....It's almost eerie how still the air is here....we've had a couple of showers, but nothing indicating there's a storm near by...how's it over there in the BVI, bvigal?....San Juan office is saying that most of the weather will happen later this afternoon....but for the time being, it's absolutely still here...I guess it's the "calm before the storm".......

[skysummit]

when they stop depicting a near hurricane as a tropical wave

Yea...no kidding. What' with them! Someone needs to change the batteries

[chris_fit]

when they stop depicting a near hurricane as a tropical wave

Haha NICE

[bvigal]

when they stop depicting a near hurricane as a tropical wave

LOL, that was well said!

Here's this morning's (9:58UTC) scatterometers of Chris, the first pic being regular view, and second the high resolution.