Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[Thunder44]

Highest FL winds were 49 knots, shown on the map I posted on page 12 of the recon reports thread.

They weren't at operational alitutde or close to where the center should be.

[WindRunner]

I'm starting to think it is already turning and could miss Florida entirely...

Yeah, looks like the center on satellite made a big ENE relocation to a spot on the coast (well, at least IMO anyways). And since recon still hasn't sent a VDM, I have a feeling that there is no longer a center near the 11am advisory position.

[Droop12]

Looks like Ernie finally has the twist going on. Over the last few days we havent seen alot of rotation like we normally do with these storms due to all the shear. Look at the newest visible and you can now see the entire storm rotating around itself, and that leads me to believe he is doing alright, just wait for a blowup of convection.

[Brent]

URNT12 KNHC 271756
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/17:54:50Z
B. 17 deg 45 min N
073 deg 52 min W
C. 700 mb 3143 m
D. 35 kt
E. 135 deg 015 nm
F. 186 deg 030 kt
G. 136 deg 075 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 10 C/ 3046 m
J. 14 C/ 3052 m
K. 3 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12 45/ 7
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 07
MAX FL WIND 30 KT SE QUAD 16:49:20 Z
SFC CNTR 191 / 21 NM FROM FL CNTR
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
RADAR BANDING EVIDENT

[mtm4319]

Finally --

053
URNT12 KNHC 271756
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/17:54:50Z
B. 17 deg 45 min N
073 deg 52 min W
C. 700 mb 3143 m
D. 35 kt
E. 135 deg 015 nm
F. 186 deg 030 kt
G. 136 deg 075 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 10 C/ 3046 m
J. 14 C/ 3052 m
K. 3 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12 45/ 7
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 07
MAX FL WIND 30 KT SE QUAD 16:49:20 Z
SFC CNTR 191 / 21 NM FROM FL CNTR
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
RADAR BANDING EVIDENT

[JonathanBelles]

i now have access to real time weather flying up to 15 minutes, and i will be flying at 12:30 today. it may not be 100% accurate but ill let you know what i find.

What are you talking about, fact?

im not drunk, i can carry out a recon mission that has real time weather, so far ive made one pass, 17.8 n 73.8 w, with winds of up to 70 mph, pressure 997mb. I use FS2004, and so far this is my first tropical fly through and its good right now.

[Pearl River]

I think the path right now is being dictated by the land interaction more than actual atmospheric changes.JMHO.

[craptacular]

VDM - 1007 MB ?!?!?!

[HurricaneHunter914]

70 mph looks right for Ernesto, he's alot more disorganized than yesterday.

[Brent]

Significantly weaker.

URNT12 KNHC 271756
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/17:54:50Z
B. 17 deg 45 min N
073 deg 52 min W
C. 700 mb 3143 m
D. 35 kt
E. 135 deg 015 nm
F. 186 deg 030 kt
G. 136 deg 075 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 10 C/ 3046 m
J. 14 C/ 3052 m
K. 3 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12 45/ 7
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 07
MAX FL WIND 30 KT SE QUAD 16:49:20 Z
SFC CNTR 191 / 21 NM FROM FL CNTR
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
RADAR BANDING EVIDENT

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not sure land would hinder it yet since the inflow is mainly from the south, from the water.

It's not so much that the core is being sheared, but that outflow in the NW quad is restricted, even compared to yesterday. I assume that this is temporary, but I have zero confidence in a global model shear forecast

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...ERNESTO MOVING NEAR THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI...MAY HAVE
WEAKENED BUT BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
RANMA... OLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA
KEYS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST OR ABOUT
105 MILES...165 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND
ABOUT 165 MILES...260 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL PASS VERY NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND BE
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE
THAT ERNESTO MAY HAVE WEAKENED BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...AND IF
THIS IS CONFIRMED THE SYSTEM WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM
ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. STRENGTHENING IS NOT LIKELY UNTIL THE CENTER
MOVES AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINOUS SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF EASTERN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...17.8 N...73.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HurricaneHunter914]

Does that make Ernesto a Depression?

[Thunder44]

This is barely a TS.

[WindRunner]

Dang, that's barely a TS. Excuse me, but .

[HurricaneHunter914]

This is good that Ernesto is weker, looks like Haiti was too tough for him.

[Trugunzn]

not looking good.

[mtm4319]

[miamicanes177]

NHC maintains hurricane intensity at 2pm advisory...75mph

[Bgator]

There is no way it weakened that much! 1007mb! weird.....and theres even banding evident now...