bkdelong wrote:re: the other thread. Does anyone have Long/Lat for each of the 4 points for the Hebert Boxes ?
Box one: 15-20°N 60-65°W
Box two: 15-20°N 80-85°W
Tropical Storm Chris
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CajunMama
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Peeps...i've been trying to read about Chris in these threads but it's hard to wade through all the one liners that are unnecessary. If you want a conversation about Chris please go into chat. It's hard to get information with all the chitchat going on in the threads. It's especially hard during the day when you're at work and can only pop in for a few minutes at a time and you have to wade through alot of chitchat. We want you to post but ask yourself if your post is really really substantial to the topic. You may want to reread this http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85432
Thanks,
CM
Thanks,
CM
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LightningInTheEye
- Tropical Low
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thanks for that link
Last edited by LightningInTheEye on Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:40 am, edited 2 times in total.
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skysummit
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From Eglin AFB....
Tropical Storm Chris continues to exceed forecaster expectations. The latest reconnaissance aircraft pass through the center of the storm, just after 1100z this morning, found winds at 5000 feet as strong as 67 knots. Considering that as late as early Tuesday morning, the possibility was being discussed by National Hurricane Center forecasters that the system would dissipate as it moved toward the Bahamas, Chris is a surprisingly robust cyclone that may become a hurricane later today if it continues to organize. Its satellite appearance is much more symmetrical than 12 hours ago, suggesting the possibility exists of significant intensification if it were to form an eye.
The expected course of Chris (appended below the satellite image) over the next five days now puts it into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico near Key West early Monday morning. Historically, that is not good news for the north-central Gulf Coast since storms in the Gulf typically begin to bend northward at some point. The timing of that northward turn is critical to determining whether it is the Florida Panhandle, or points further to the west, that are ultimately threatened. Again, it must be stressed that this storm is still 1300 miles from Eglin and poses no threat to any spot on the northern Gulf Coast for the next 125 or more hours. Late Tuesday would be the earliest landfall opportunity in the Panhandle if it maintains its expected forward speed.
Tropical Storm Chris continues to exceed forecaster expectations. The latest reconnaissance aircraft pass through the center of the storm, just after 1100z this morning, found winds at 5000 feet as strong as 67 knots. Considering that as late as early Tuesday morning, the possibility was being discussed by National Hurricane Center forecasters that the system would dissipate as it moved toward the Bahamas, Chris is a surprisingly robust cyclone that may become a hurricane later today if it continues to organize. Its satellite appearance is much more symmetrical than 12 hours ago, suggesting the possibility exists of significant intensification if it were to form an eye.
The expected course of Chris (appended below the satellite image) over the next five days now puts it into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico near Key West early Monday morning. Historically, that is not good news for the north-central Gulf Coast since storms in the Gulf typically begin to bend northward at some point. The timing of that northward turn is critical to determining whether it is the Florida Panhandle, or points further to the west, that are ultimately threatened. Again, it must be stressed that this storm is still 1300 miles from Eglin and poses no threat to any spot on the northern Gulf Coast for the next 125 or more hours. Late Tuesday would be the earliest landfall opportunity in the Panhandle if it maintains its expected forward speed.
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Josephine96
After hours of expanding the last couple of hours seem to show it contracting just a bit.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12
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dwg71 wrote:After hours of expanding the last couple of hours seem to show it contracting just a bit.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12
Eyewall being formed perhaps? I was under impression when a storm contracts its strengthening?
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flhurricaneguy
- Tropical Storm
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LightningInTheEye
- Tropical Low
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- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 5:43 pm
Well the following certainly doesn't sound as reassuring as last night's "It's a northern Cuba storm" prediction...
"http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
A lot of the model shifted northward on the 06Z run than last night."-SouthFloridawx
"Chris is ever so slightly north of the previous track. There is little change in the forecast reasoning from 12 hours ago. Only slight difference is a slight right shift in the longer term forecast locations, in agreement with the latest guidance. This keeps the storm over the Florida Straits, very near the southern Keys in a little less than 5 days. The ridge may not be quite as strong as the models were suggesting."-Derek Ortt
"too soon to say right now, I have to worry about possible Miami problems for obvious reasons"-Derek Ortt
In response to..."the gfdl is south of cuba also"-flhurricaneguy
"Derek,at what point will you feel more confident with the model guidence? After G IV goes in and gets dropsondes data into them?"-tgenius
"when they stop depicting a near hurricane as a tropical wave"-Derek Ortt
"http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
A lot of the model shifted northward on the 06Z run than last night."-SouthFloridawx
"Chris is ever so slightly north of the previous track. There is little change in the forecast reasoning from 12 hours ago. Only slight difference is a slight right shift in the longer term forecast locations, in agreement with the latest guidance. This keeps the storm over the Florida Straits, very near the southern Keys in a little less than 5 days. The ridge may not be quite as strong as the models were suggesting."-Derek Ortt
"too soon to say right now, I have to worry about possible Miami problems for obvious reasons"-Derek Ortt
In response to..."the gfdl is south of cuba also"-flhurricaneguy
"Derek,at what point will you feel more confident with the model guidence? After G IV goes in and gets dropsondes data into them?"-tgenius
"when they stop depicting a near hurricane as a tropical wave"-Derek Ortt
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flhurricaneguy
- Tropical Storm
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- Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2005 10:21 am
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x-y-no
- Category 5
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- Age: 65
- Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
- Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL
dwg71 wrote:After hours of expanding the last couple of hours seem to show it contracting just a bit.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12
I don't know about that ... the thing I'm mostly noticing is the increasingly cold cloud tops in the center of the convection. There's a pretyy good sized area of < -70 degree tops which has developed over the last hour and a half.
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flhurricaneguy
- Tropical Storm
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- Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2005 10:21 am
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 AM AST WED AUG 02 2006
...CHRIS CONTINUES TO SKIRT THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE
INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST.
BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN IS DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANGUILLA...AND
ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST OR ABOUT 120
MILES...190 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS.
CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME
OF THE STRONG RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS MAY AFFECT
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
ANOTHER AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE CHRIS
THIS AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES...120 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...19.2 N...63.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 AM AST WED AUG 02 2006
...CHRIS CONTINUES TO SKIRT THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE
INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST.
BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN IS DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANGUILLA...AND
ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST OR ABOUT 120
MILES...190 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS.
CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME
OF THE STRONG RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS MAY AFFECT
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
ANOTHER AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE CHRIS
THIS AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES...120 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...19.2 N...63.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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#neversummer
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
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- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
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TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1500 UTC WED AUG 02 2006
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE
INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST.
BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN IS DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANGUILLA...AND
ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 63.4W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 65NE 50SE 25SW 35NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 63.4W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 63.1W
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.8N 64.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.3N 66.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.8N 68.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.4N 70.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 23.5N 79.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 24.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 63.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1500 UTC WED AUG 02 2006
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE
INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST.
BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN IS DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANGUILLA...AND
ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 63.4W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 65NE 50SE 25SW 35NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 63.4W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 63.1W
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.8N 64.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.3N 66.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.8N 68.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.4N 70.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 23.5N 79.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 24.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 63.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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