Tropical Storm Chris

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cajungal
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#1781 Postby cajungal » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:27 pm

Our weather forecasters on the New Orleans news seem very concerned about Chris. Very understandbly so. People will be on edge every time a storm enters the Gulf Of Mexico. Governor Blanco is going to be holding an emergency meeting soon. The only good news about Chris is that our meterologists say that he will be a very small compact storm. And have a very small wind field.
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Evil Jeremy
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#1782 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:28 pm

can someone please post the big model picture here please?
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#1783 Postby clfenwi » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:28 pm

12Z UKMET guidance... I'm not sure what caused it to forecast such a sharp nw/nnw movement in the short term...

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.08.2006


TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ANALYSED POSITION : 19.3N 63.7W


ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032006


VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 02.08.2006 19.3N 63.7W MODERATE
00UTC 03.08.2006 20.4N 64.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2006 21.5N 67.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.08.2006 22.4N 69.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.08.2006 23.4N 72.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.08.2006 23.8N 74.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.08.2006 24.9N 77.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
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storms in NC
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#1784 Postby storms in NC » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:28 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
Steve wrote:You have to click where you have to click bra.

Steve


???
:?: :?: :?:
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#1785 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:29 pm

does anyone else feel the same about this expanding as it gets closer to the bahamas?
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Evil Jeremy
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#1786 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:29 pm

yes
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#1787 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:29 pm

Trugunzn wrote:Image


It is not good news, look at the big picture - I doubt Chris will stay small and compact for very long - he is in his early stages....

there is no good news here at all I am afraid if it gets into the GOM.
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mtm4319
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#1788 Postby mtm4319 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:29 pm

It still doesn't look like a hurricane yet to me, but I suppose recon may later indicate otherwise.
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#1789 Postby WindRunner » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:29 pm

Image
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Extremeweatherguy
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#1790 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:30 pm

It looks like Chris may already be expanding. This storm looks much bigger than it was yesterday.
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gerrit
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#1791 Postby gerrit » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:31 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
Steve wrote:You have to click where you have to click bra.

Steve


???


Image
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#1792 Postby Trugunzn » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:31 pm

I think its expanding now
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Derek Ortt

#1793 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:32 pm

based upon sat, this is not yet a cane, though I'd estimate the pressure to be 998mb
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#1794 Postby clfenwi » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:33 pm

OB from the southeast corner of the storm.

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: CHRIS (03L)
Mission Number: 03
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 02
Time: 1717Z
Latitude: 18.1°N
Longitude: 62.7°W
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: In & out of clouds
Pressure Altitude: 5000 feet
Flight level wind: SSW (200°) @ 25 mph
Temperature: 61°F
Dewpoint: 59°F
Weather: Rainshowers
850mb height: 5100 feet
Surface Wind: SW (210°) @ 23 mph
Remarks: None
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LightningInTheEye
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#1795 Postby LightningInTheEye » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:33 pm

According to the latest visible satellite loop (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html), Chris appears to be taking a more due westerly path. This is a good sign for South Florida.
Last edited by LightningInTheEye on Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1796 Postby WindRunner » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:33 pm

They've made the turn inward for the first pass, SE to NW. Probably 30 minutes out from center or so.
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Evil Jeremy
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#1797 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:33 pm

gerrit wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:
Steve wrote:You have to click where you have to click bra.

Steve


???


Image



i dont see the option! its a white background, with a big empty picture box. below it is the model text.
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#1798 Postby StormsAhead » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:36 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 021736
AF308 0303A CHRIS HDOB 07 KNHC
1724. 1823N 06256W 01523 0109 201 025 156 144 026 01672 0000000000
1725 1824N 06257W 01518 0107 197 025 154 136 026 01666 0000000000
1725. 1825N 06259W 01530 0106 197 029 154 154 029 01677 0000000000
1726 1827N 06300W 01521 0107 198 027 156 148 029 01669 0000000000
1726. 1828N 06301W 01527 0108 196 027 160 126 027 01676 0000000000
1727 1829N 06303W 01524 0108 197 027 156 138 028 01672 0000000000
1727. 1830N 06304W 01524 0106 195 031 158 132 032 01671 0000000000
1728 1832N 06305W 01521 0103 189 030 130 130 032 01666 0000000100
1728. 1833N 06306W 01526 0106 200 030 146 146 030 01672 0000000000
1729 1834N 06308W 01524 0105 198 030 154 138 030 01670 0000000000
1729. 1835N 06309W 01525 0104 196 031 150 144 031 01670 0000000000
1730 1837N 06310W 01525 0104 197 031 146 146 032 01669 0000000000
1730. 1838N 06312W 01523 0103 198 033 148 144 033 01667 0000000000
1731 1839N 06313W 01523 0103 201 033 152 122 034 01667 0000000000
1731. 1840N 06314W 01524 0100 198 034 148 132 035 01665 0000000000
1732 1842N 06316W 01525 0098 197 038 144 118 038 01664 0000000000
1732. 1843N 06317W 01524 0097 198 038 140 136 040 01661 0000000000
1733 1844N 06318W 01524 0094 197 037 148 138 039 01658 0000000000
1733. 1845N 06319W 01528 0092 189 040 132 132 042 01661 0000000000
1734 1847N 06321W 01522 0090 190 042 122 122 043 01654 0000000000
;
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Derek Ortt

#1799 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:36 pm

From the sat images I am looking at, it is continuing WNW
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#1800 Postby skysummit » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:37 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:From the sat images I am looking at, it is continuing WNW


I concur...still on track.
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