Tropical Storm Chris

[Brent]

They must be waiting for recon...

[BensonTCwatcher]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200603_climo.html

I know no 2 storms are the same, but historically a W or WNW track from Chris's location through the straits all the way into central/ west gulf is not that common.

Good post. The ridge is strong this year, and we will have to wait another 48 or so hours to see how/if it stays in place to push this system on the currrent forecast track. In one corner, climo history, the other the ridge. The models are seated ringside......

[stormtruth]

It should be a minimal hurricane now. If not then I'm wrong.

[chris_fit]

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
200 PM AST WED AUG 02 2006

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS THAT CHRIS HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANGUILLA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...165 KM...NORTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME
OF THE STRONG RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS MAY AFFECT
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES...120 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...19.5 N...64.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

NNNN

[Evil Jeremy]

MB went up!!!

[MiamiensisWx]

No new reports yet... could this be another missed (not issued) observation like occurred several times yesterday on last mission?

[Derek Ortt]

does not seem to ahve intensified absed upon the first pass

[Brent]

I don't think I've ever seen it this late before...

[cheezyWXguy]

thats crazy!!!

[dixiebreeze]

MB went up!!!

Could that be an error??

[chris_fit]

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...19.5 N...64.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.


1007MB? eh? comments?

[StormsAhead]

Looks like yet another missing data set. At least this one is on the inbound leg and we will see the maximum wind on the VDM.

[Derek Ortt]

and the winds are probabl closer to 45-50 m.p.h. based upon the first recon pass, using the same differences as yesterday with the SE and NE quad

[Grease Monkey]

I have a feeling this advisory came out too soon. I'm curious to see what recon finds when they're finished with their mission.

[HardCard]

Recon is no where near finished their mission.. I would expect that there could possible be a special tropical update like yesterday with an increase in wind/classification

[Swimdude]

I think they're just going on the most recent data from RECON. I SERIOUSLY doubt the pressure has risen. That seems too strange. 1007 for a near-hurricane? Nah...

[tgenius]

So on first pass Chris is actually weaker.. well thats a good sign, no?

[Extremeweatherguy]

hmm..seems like this statement is a little foolish from the NHC considering their planes have JUST recently entered the storm and have been there for barely any time at all:

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS THAT CHRIS HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...

[HURAKAN]

Have the RECON informed any pressure measurement?

[Canelaw99]

I haven't checked out the recon reports thread to see where they've been already, but could it be that they haven't hit the center or the stronger quad yet and that's the reason for the higher pressure? Or, could it be that it's getting ready to strengthen...? Don't storms go up in pressure a bit before rapid strengthening?