Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[brunota2003]

Florida Declares State Of Emergency sorry if its already been posted...dont have time to look through to see whether or not it has...

[miamicanes177]

Did you know it had it to 946mb? I knew the track but I did not know the mb pressure it brought it to. Besides, 18Z GFDL wont be out for a couple more hours.

[Opal storm]

12Z of the GFDL brings this to 946mb before making landfall in the panhandle.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... hour=114hr

This will probably shift further east with the rest of the models.

[Evil Jeremy]

if it takes the northern part of the cone, we could have a Cat. 2, but if it stays towards the center, its a 1.

[6SpeedTA95]

12Z of the GFDL brings this to 946mb before making landfall in the panhandle.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... hour=114hr

This will probably shift further east with the rest of the models.

Sure it might, or we could be in an entirely new boat tomorrow

[miamicanes177]

Opal Storm, the GFDL has shifted west the past couple runs and instead of curving to the east at the end, it curves to the west.

[Thunder44]

[JtSmarts]

Georges (1998) also crossed over DR, Haiti and parts of Cuba, and managed to get back to a Cat 2 in the gulf.

[Opal storm]

12Z of the GFDL brings this to 946mb before making landfall in the panhandle.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... hour=114hr

This will probably shift further east with the rest of the models.

Sure it might, or we could be in an entirely new boat tomorrow

Well...the track does seem to shift dramtically every 24 hrs.

[Jevo]

Looks like Ernies got his wheels back on, finally moving again, banding is improving... should have a clear view of some water in the next 2 - 4 hours

[LAwxrgal]

This is a perplexing storm, to say the least. Wow. Everything I thought I knew about the tropics has just gone out the window. Gonna have to start from scratch. This one will have our heads spinning for weeks.

[craptacular]

three sets of data, one from each plane

506
URNT11 KNHC 272053
97779 20504 10189 75400 15200 08025 16168 /2504
40820
RMK AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 17
;


798
UZNT13 KNHC 272055
XXAA 77215 99210 70850 08115 99012 29650 09509 00104 28646 07510
92793 23041 07511 85526 19058 07513 70167 10472 08514 50588 07168
08018 40758 18750 88999 77999
31313 09608 82031
51515 10190 30967
61616 AF309 0705A ERNESTO OB 04
62626 SPL 2100N08500W 2043 MBL WND 08010 AEV 20604 DLM WND 07514
012500 WL150 08010 075 =
XXBB 77218 99210 70850 08115 00012 29650 11939 23619 22877 20860
33850 19058 44797 16467 55714 10667 66705 10676 77644 07273 88624
05666 99603 04069 11524 04364 22514 05170 33453 12768 44437 14359
55412 16958 66386 20533 77368 22765 88346 24958 99316 30556
21212 00012 09509 11006 08011 22850 07513 33797 06515 44731 08013
55713 06014 66685 09516 77618 08518 88591 06017 99539 08511 11500
08018 22316 14528
31313 09608 82031
51515 10190 30967
61616 AF309 0705A ERNESTO OB 04
62626 SPL 2100N08500W 2043 MBL WND 08010 AEV 20604 DLM WND 07514
012500 WL150 08010 075 =
;


627
UZNT13 KWBC 272050
XXAA 77212 99169 70722 04462 99010 28039 15022 00091 27234 15023
92777 21831 16530 85508 17656 17527 70152 10257 19028 50587 05522
22026 40759 16129 23527 30970 30137 23519 25097 39942 19509 20245
523// 16007 88999 77999
31313 09608 82030
51515 10190 15425
61616 NOAA9 0805A ERNESTO OB 03
62626 SPL 1695N07214W 2045 MBL WND 15523 AEV 20604 DLM WND 20020
010161 WL150 15022 076 =
XXBB 77218 99169 70722 04462 00010 28039 11952 23210 22850 17656
33814 15857 44793 16659 55631 05646 66581 00831 77544 02357 88533
03115 99519 04158 11503 05327 22466 09514 33455 10557 44428 13925
55342 22931 66251 39742 77203 51561
21212 00010 15022 11961 15523 22930 16030 33885 17524 44850 17527
55687 19030 66566 23024 77495 22026 88461 24027 99382 23529 11285
23515 22263 18511 33251 19510 44215 16010 55167 25002
31313 09608 82030
51515 10190 15425
61616 NOAA9 0805A ERNESTO OB 03
62626 SPL 1695N07214W 2045 MBL WND 15523 AEV 20604 DLM WND 20020
010161 WL150 15022 076 =

[rnbaida]

when is the next vortex?

[craptacular]

heading back south on the west side

227
SXXX50 KNHC 272059
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 39 KNHC
2049. 1850N 07520W 01524 0048 079 022 164 162 023 01605 0000000000
2050 1851N 07521W 01523 0049 076 023 162 162 023 01605 0000000000
2050. 1852N 07523W 01526 0050 079 023 166 160 024 01608 0000000000
2051 1854N 07524W 01523 0050 077 024 166 158 025 01606 0000000000
2051. 1855N 07525W 01525 0051 077 024 164 156 025 01609 0000000000
2052 1856N 07526W 01523 0051 076 022 160 160 022 01607 0000000000
2052. 1857N 07528W 01524 0051 077 023 160 160 024 01608 0000000000
2053 1858N 07529W 01528 0057 078 023 156 156 023 01618 0000000000
2053. 1857N 07530W 01523 0054 073 023 156 156 024 01609 0000000000
2054 1855N 07530W 01522 0051 064 020 156 156 020 01606 0000000000
2054. 1853N 07531W 01524 0051 065 020 156 156 021 01608 0000000000
2055 1852N 07531W 01524 0050 064 018 156 156 019 01607 0000000000
2055. 1850N 07531W 01523 0050 064 017 156 156 017 01606 0000000000
2056 1848N 07531W 01526 0049 059 018 150 150 019 01608 0000000000
2056. 1847N 07531W 01522 0049 066 014 144 144 017 01605 0000000000
2057 1845N 07532W 01526 0049 053 015 160 160 016 01608 0000000000
2057. 1843N 07532W 01521 0049 045 013 166 158 015 01602 0000000000
2058 1841N 07532W 01525 0048 042 012 168 154 014 01606 0000000000
2058. 1840N 07532W 01524 0048 040 013 160 160 017 01605 0000000000
2059 1838N 07532W 01525 0048 049 014 164 152 014 01605 0000000000
;

[HurricaneJim]

These models have been all over the place. NHC just changed track again...some sort of crazy S turn over Cuba as a TS then re-emerging as a hurricane.

Navy Wave model seems more logical considering the SAT loops are showing a continued drift that's more north than west...which would mean a clip hit off east Cuba, grab the slot and run the gulf stream north like a rat race. Broward might get a head on hit and east FL is gonna get buzz saw'd by wind and rain, but I'm not seeing a "Major" landfall here.

That does NOT mean, however, that residents of FL should let their guard down for one minute. This storm is acting like the guy that's standing in the subway muttering to himself...no telling what he's gonna do.

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

[fci]

Look at the latest 5 day outlook it looks like Ernesto won't be in the GOM as long as initially anticipated. These turn of events are amazing. On Friday there was talk of a possible cat.5 threatening the Western or N.Central GOM and we have the possibility of weaker storm barely in the SE GOM.

I still feel that it may never reach the GOM.
Seems like each run the amount of time forecasted in the GOM is less and less and I would nto be surprised if this trend comtinued and this went right up the center of the state or East Coast.

Hope not.

[BOPPA]

Hurricane Jim - Don't know if I am supposed to ask this - but is the NHC change in track you are talking about the 5:00 posted that shows Ernesto right at Ft. Myers?

[chrisnnavarre]

Note: For all residents in the Panhandle, looks like the GFDL is triggering a gas run. Just went to fill up and also fill my gas cans in Navarre. Two other folks were doing the same thing. But I got mine just the same. At $2.71 a gallon, the way this season is going eventually it's gonna be a bargain!

[craptacular]

when is the next vortex?

So far, they've been at 17:54, 18:59, and 20:19, so we're likely looking at around 21:30 or so.

edit: Actually, it seems like they continued further on this last leg, so it'll likely take longer to get back south and turn NE towards the center.

[Thunder44]