Tropical Storm Chris

[gatorcane]

FSU model showing a SE Florida hit

[Derek Ortt]

what are you seeing that makes you believe this looks better on satellite?

I am seeing the NW outflow become straight, a tell tale sign of shear, and thatthe center is about to become exposed

[ericinmia]

Hmm just connected some dots... why are the fsumm5 and the UKmet on the same average path?

What are they seeing that other models aren't?

[hriverajr]

According to JB, he continues to insist on a texas hit. His rationale is that the ridge to the north is going to move in lock step with Chris, unlike the situation with Andrew when it backed off. One glimmer of good news from him was that waters are a little cooler off the texas coast and that Chris may be weakening as it comes in.

[gatorcane]

what are you seeing that makes you believe this looks better on satellite?

I am seeing the NW outflow become straight, a tell tale sign of shear, and thatthe center is about to become exposed

Convection is blowing up and the outflow looks good to me. Derek we know the area it is heading is notorious for rapidly strenghthening storms. It has also grown in size.

[dwg71]

what are you seeing that makes you believe this looks better on satellite?

I am seeing the NW outflow become straight, a tell tale sign of shear, and thatthe center is about to become exposed

It's like seeing your own kid play ball, they are always better in your own eye. Whether its a trend or just a temporary situation, Chris does not look as good as it did 12 hours ago.

[stormtruth]

Chris is up to something

Looks like he found a power-up box.

[brunota2003]

I dont like the UKMET or the FSU MM5, I really dont like how they have shifted north alot from yesterday...not worried about being hit at all...just dont like how they have jumped north...

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 021836
AF308 0303A CHRIS HDOB 13 KNHC
1824. 2051N 06517W 01525 0104 068 022 164 152 022 01670 0000000000
1825 2053N 06518W 01523 0105 071 022 166 154 023 01669 0000000000
1825. 2054N 06520W 01526 0110 073 021 166 158 022 01677 0000000000
1826 2053N 06521W 01525 0110 066 018 166 154 018 01676 0000000000
1826. 2052N 06522W 01519 0106 062 017 166 156 018 01665 0000000000
1827 2050N 06522W 01527 0105 064 016 162 160 017 01672 0000000000
1827. 2048N 06522W 01523 0105 066 017 162 160 019 01668 0000000000
1828 2047N 06522W 01525 0105 065 019 164 156 019 01671 0000000000
1828. 2045N 06522W 01523 0105 065 020 166 154 020 01669 0000000000
1829 2043N 06522W 01526 0105 064 020 166 152 021 01671 0000000000
1829. 2041N 06523W 01523 0104 061 021 164 156 021 01668 0000000000
1830 2040N 06523W 01525 0104 058 020 164 158 021 01669 0000000000
1830. 2038N 06523W 01524 0103 058 018 168 156 019 01668 0000000000
1831 2036N 06523W 01523 0102 057 017 170 154 018 01666 0000000000
1831. 2034N 06523W 01525 0102 052 019 162 156 019 01668 0000000000
1832 2033N 06523W 01524 0102 052 019 160 160 020 01666 0000000000
1832. 2031N 06524W 01523 0102 052 019 160 160 020 01666 0000000000
1833 2029N 06524W 01525 0102 058 019 162 156 019 01668 0000000000
1833. 2027N 06524W 01523 0102 059 017 162 154 017 01666 0000000000
1834 2026N 06524W 01525 0102 053 017 164 156 018 01668 0000000000

[wxmann_91]

It might be weakening a little, the ULL to the west has intensified and another ULL has formed just to the north which is starting to provide northerly shear, in addition to the powerful westerly shear already present. In conjunction with dry air, it really isn't a surprise that Chris is weakening.

Sorta like Debby in 2000, except thankfully Chris is being hyped out of proportion. (BTW, by no means am I saying Chris will die, but this was sorta like the beginning of Debby's demise)

[mascpa]

FSU model showing a SE Florida hit

Everyone knows that FSU hates Miami!

[dwg71]

Chris is up to something

Looks like he found a power-up box.

I'm not seeing this strenghthening??? I see a storm dealing with shear and an exposed center. What am I missing?

[WindRunner]

[Grease Monkey]

Chris is up to something

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Derek, should we place any credence into the new FSU run? That surely seems to point to a different ball game.

[Canelaw99]

LOL Mascpa - it's ok though because Miami can take FSU anytime

Now, back to topic - I, also, don't like the big jump that 2 of these models have taken now...could be a start of a trend or it could be the normal model jumping that happens with storms....have to keep watching to be sure I s'pose...

[gatorcane]

FSU model showing a SE Florida hit

Everyone knows that FSU hates Miami!

Ha Ha!

Guys look at the historical maps - no storm has ever gone through the FL straits this time of year....keep that in mind

[ericinmia]

Derek, should we place any credence into the new FSU run? That surely seems to point to a different ball game.

at that resolution... its not much to be trusted as of A TRACK....

18K is a different story...

But it still depends on what backgounrd its run off of, the nogaps, or the gfs

[dwg71]

FSU model showing a SE Florida hit

Everyone knows that FSU hates Miami!

College football references always encouraged...

I don't think anybody really has a good feel on Chris.. this is just another example of something different. UKMET North, FSU North, GFDL bizarre turn southwest, BAMM's due west.

At least he has been entertaining.

[Weatherfreak000]

What i'm seeing from the storm still appears to be a well organized system. Convection is firing heavily near the center and even the latest NHC's Discussion is calling for the storm to continue moving into a FAVORABLE environment.



So what's all this about weakening?