Tropical Storm Chris

[BirdyCin]

I dont like the UKMET or the FSU MM5, I really dont like how they have shifted north alot from yesterday...not worried about being hit at all...just dont like how they have jumped north...

And my question is "Why?" What are they picking up on?

[dwg71]

What i'm seeing from the storm still appears to be a well organized system. Convection is firing heavily near the center and even the latest NHC's Discussion is calling for the storm to continue moving into a FAVORABLE environment.



So what's all this about weakening?

Recent recon and sattelite's show this, maybe its temporary, maybe not.

[ericinmia]

The 18K is slowly coming in for 12z....

its showing that same 'bump' to the N-NW in the next 24 hours...

[Weatherfreak000]

What i'm seeing from the storm still appears to be a well organized system. Convection is firing heavily near the center and even the latest NHC's Discussion is calling for the storm to continue moving into a FAVORABLE environment.



So what's all this about weakening?

Recent recon and sattelite's show this, maybe its temporary, maybe not.

Someone tell me WHAT THEY SHOW.


They show the windfield of the storm getting larger, I see convection building to the West.

[Pebbles]

Derek is right... it is getting sheared some. If you look at a high quality visible rapid scan you can see the cloud tops on the NW side of the storm heading SE towards the center of the storm rather then away. Thus I think outflow isn't as nice as it was this morning. Also outflow boundries are quite evident on the NW side of the system on the high quality visible.

[Noles2006]

LOL Mascpa - it's ok though because Miami can take FSU anytime

Now, back to topic - I, also, don't like the big jump that 2 of these models have taken now...could be a start of a trend or it could be the normal model jumping that happens with storms....have to keep watching to be sure I s'pose...

Nah, man... 10-7, baby, and another FSU "W" in about a month from now. Also, we don't hate Miami... we hate UF.

Back to CHRIS... he's confusing the hell out of all of us. First, he strengthens when we think he's going to weaken... then weakens when we think he's going to strengthen... I guess it goes to show that the tropics are so unpredictable we should ALWAYS keep our eyes on the oceans.

[Grease Monkey]

Anything is possible because with all this reorganization happening with this system, I wouldn't be suprised to see decent shifts in the tracks.

[stormtruth]

Chris is up to something

Looks like he found a power-up box.

I'm not seeing this strenghthening??? I see a storm dealing with shear and an exposed center. What am I missing?

Are you looking at the latest images and seeing the convection increase?

[TexasF6]

Sorry Windrunner! You don't have to yell...my guess is RECON is flying in the Eastern half of the storm to gather info for later model runs.....someone will correct me if I am in error....when is next vort due out? He is powering up again, like I noted earlier with the wrapping comment....

[Extremeweatherguy]

Anything is possible because with all this reorganization happening with this system, I wouldn't be suprised to see decent shifts in the tracks.

I doubt that. The main player (the ridge) is still what will steer this system.

[ConvergenceZone]

looks like it's looking a bit more ragged and not quite as nicely shaped as it was before. I"m thinking that it won't reach hurricane strength until tomorrow morning. It's not looking that great right now.

[dwg71]

What i'm seeing from the storm still appears to be a well organized system. Convection is firing heavily near the center and even the latest NHC's Discussion is calling for the storm to continue moving into a FAVORABLE environment.



So what's all this about weakening?

Recent recon and sattelite's show this, maybe its temporary, maybe not.

Someone tell me WHAT THEY SHOW.


They show the windfield of the storm getting larger, I see convection building to the West.

Recon shows only 47Kt max winds on last pass, and sats show exposed center and evidence of shear.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Not surprised really. Climo history seems to bear out once again. Even the strongest and highest ridge will evantually be eroded by other developing features, like UL's

Look at the difference 3 to 6 hours makes on this map

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html

Looks like weakening to me?

[StormsAhead]

URNT14 KNHC 021834
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01182 10628 12564 11515 19023
02184 20630 22561 21513 19026
03186 30631 32559 31514 19031
04188 40633 42545 41313 18042
05189 50636 52537 51515 23034
06191 60637 62530 61616 24035
07194 70639 72516 71616 26030
MF189 M0634 MF047
OBS 01 AT 17:20:30Z
OBS 07 AT 17:47:50Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 21020
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01198 10641 12503 12015 04029
02200 20643 22523 22012 05029
03201 30645 32537 31813 05030
04203 40647 42548 41515 07034
05205 50649 52553 51616 08029
06207 60651 62554 61616 08026
07208 70653 72558 71616 07023
MF202 M0646 MF036
OBS 01 AT 17:57:10Z
OBS 07 AT 18:23:30Z
OBS 07 SFC WND 07015
AF308 0303A CHRIS OB 06

Max wind 47 knots in the SE quad and 36 knots in the NW quad.

[cheezyWXguy]

i cant read that

[Air Force Met]

what are you seeing that makes you believe this looks better on satellite?

I am seeing the NW outflow become straight, a tell tale sign of shear, and thatthe center is about to become exposed

It's like seeing your own kid play ball, they are always better in your own eye. Whether its a trend or just a temporary situation, Chris does not look as good as it did 12 hours ago.

That's what I was going to say...you would thing that everyone is talking about their kid here...they are getting all defensive at the very mention it might not look as well.

It's kinda funny.

[WindRunner]

Sorry Windrunner! You don't have to yell...my guess is RECON is flying in the Eastern half of the storm to gather info for later model runs.....someone will correct me if I am in error....when is next vort due out? He is powering up again, like I noted earlier with the wrapping comment....

Not yelling, that's just the little graphic I did up for when people start getting a good conversation in this thread! Didn't mean to offend or anything . . .

[Scorpion]

Cheezy, I find it hard to believe after the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons you still cannot understand a recon report. Please don't comment until you learn about these things.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Dry air is hurting it.

[NONAME]

Sorry for asking again but no one told me what column is the Wind in on the USAF FLIGHT LEVEL DATA (MINOBS)