Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[TheShrimper]

It may not be over Cuba that long.

[craptacular]

466
SXXX50 KNHC 272219
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 47 KNHC
2209. 1802N 07415W 01525 0021 233 015 198 180 016 01579 0000000000
2210 1802N 07413W 01524 0023 232 016 190 186 017 01580 0000000000
2210. 1802N 07411W 01524 0024 217 016 186 186 017 01581 0000000000
2211 1802N 07410W 01522 0023 209 017 194 186 018 01578 0000000000
2211. 1802N 07408W 01526 0023 213 019 198 184 020 01582 0000000000
2212 1802N 07406W 01522 0023 217 023 198 184 025 01578 0000000000
2212. 1802N 07404W 01526 0024 216 027 200 176 028 01583 0000000000
2213 1802N 07402W 01523 0025 209 029 196 184 031 01581 0000000000
2213. 1802N 07400W 01524 0026 205 031 196 184 031 01583 0000000000
2214 1802N 07359W 01524 0027 205 032 196 182 033 01584 0000000000
2214. 1802N 07357W 01524 0028 199 032 190 184 032 01585 0000000000
2215 1802N 07355W 01524 0029 196 033 184 184 034 01585 0000000000
2215. 1801N 07353W 01523 0030 193 034 184 180 035 01585 0000000000
2216 1801N 07352W 01524 0032 194 036 186 166 037 01589 0000000000
2216. 1801N 07350W 01524 0034 197 036 184 168 037 01591 0000000000
2217 1801N 07348W 01525 0036 196 035 180 166 036 01594 0000000000
2217. 1801N 07346W 01523 0037 193 035 180 178 036 01593 0000000000
2218 1801N 07345W 01524 0038 189 036 184 178 036 01595 0000000000
2218. 1801N 07343W 01523 0039 188 035 180 180 036 01595 0000000000
2219 1801N 07341W 01524 0040 182 040 186 160 040 01596 0000000000
;

[SouthFLTropics]

There are plenty of examples that we could bring to the table that would show that rapid intensification in this area with the right conditions is possible. Charley, Dennis, and dare I say 1935 Labor Day Keys storm! I'm sure there are more. Once again, moral of the story is SFL should not let there guard down even it comes of the North coast of Cuba as a depression. I'd rather be safe than sorry. If we're wrong then so what, but if we're right then at least we were prepared. I prefer being overprepared than the alternate choice!

SouthFLTropics

[craptacular]

dropsonde from AF302 (the recon plane we've been tracking)

942
UZNT13 KNHC 272216
XXAA 77228 99180 70744 04484 99004 26209 33517 00037 26008 34518
92725 22803 34513 85461 20416 25514 88999 77999
31313 09608 82207
61616 AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 20
62626 EYE SPL 1802N07436W 2209 MBL WND 34014 AEV 20604 DLM WND 34
013 003898 WL150 34520 076 =
XXBB 77228 99180 70744 04484 00004 26209 11950 25017 22901 21200
33850 20416 44844 19014
21212 00004 33517 11995 35023 22983 33515 33978 35510 44974 00510
55961 31507 66945 33512 77937 32514 88930 34514 99898 32507 11844
25016
31313 09608 82207
61616 AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 20
62626 EYE SPL 1802N07436W 2209 MBL WND 34014 AEV 20604 DLM WND 34
013 003898 WL150 34520 076 =
;

[CrazyC83]

There are plenty of examples that we could bring to the table that would show that rapid intensification in this area with the right conditions is possible. Charley, Dennis, and dare I say 1935 Labor Day Keys storm! I'm sure there are more. Once again, moral of the story is SFL should not let there guard down even it comes of the North coast of Cuba as a depression. I'd rather be safe than sorry. If we're wrong then so what, but if we're right then at least we were prepared. I prefer being overprepared than the alternate choice!

SouthFLTropics

Heck, even if Ernesto degenerates over Cuba, it could very easily regenerate in the Gulf or the Florida Straits...

[cheezyWXguy]

Does that say 37kts at the surface? Sorry, Im not good at reading these and havent been doing it for more than a month or two

[Thatsmrhurricane]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

18Z

[craptacular]

408
SXXX50 KNHC 272229
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 48 KNHC
2219. 1801N 07339W 01523 0041 181 038 186 154 040 01597 0000000000
2220 1802N 07338W 01526 0042 179 038 178 172 038 01601 0000000000
2220. 1802N 07336W 01526 0043 183 037 162 162 040 01602 0000000000
2221 1801N 07334W 01521 0044 188 038 174 174 039 01597 0000000000
2221. 1801N 07332W 01526 0046 190 039 176 164 039 01605 0000000000
2222 1801N 07331W 01522 0046 186 038 172 172 038 01600 0000000000
2222. 1801N 07329W 01525 0047 182 039 170 170 040 01604 0000000000
2223 1801N 07327W 01527 0047 180 037 166 166 041 01607 0000000000
2223. 1801N 07326W 01522 0047 184 037 166 166 038 01602 0000000000
2224 1801N 07324W 01524 0049 179 040 168 168 041 01605 0000000000
2224. 1801N 07322W 01526 0050 180 037 170 170 039 01608 0000000000
2225 1801N 07320W 01523 0050 176 035 168 168 035 01606 0000000000
2225. 1801N 07319W 01523 0051 172 037 166 166 038 01607 0000000000
2226 1801N 07317W 01526 0052 172 037 168 164 037 01610 0000000000
2226. 1801N 07315W 01523 0053 166 035 168 168 036 01608 0000000000
2227 1801N 07314W 01523 0053 164 032 162 162 032 01609 0000000000
2227. 1801N 07312W 01526 0054 166 031 166 166 031 01613 0000000000
2228 1801N 07311W 01523 0054 170 030 166 166 031 01610 0000000000
2228. 1801N 07309W 01523 0055 166 031 162 162 032 01612 0000000000
2229 1801N 07307W 01525 0056 165 031 162 162 032 01613 0000000000
;

[Thunder44]

[Droop12]

The next model runs 00z should have data from the Recon flight that was sampling the atmosphere around Ernie right?

[JPmia]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

18Z

Which selection does one choose to see all of the models? There are so many selections.

[Aquawind]

The next model runs 00z should have data from the Recon flight that was sampling the atmosphere around Ernie right?

Yep

[feederband]

Structurally I think ernie looks good for some quick strengthening tonight...Hopefully Cuba will beat it up alot ..

[cheezyWXguy]

Is this an eye?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

[craptacular]

435
SXXX50 KNHC 272239
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 49 KNHC
2229. 1801N 07306W 01524 0056 164 029 160 160 030 01612 0000000000
2230 1801N 07304W 01524 0057 165 031 160 160 031 01614 0000000000
2230. 1801N 07302W 01524 0057 169 030 160 160 030 01614 0000000000
2231 1801N 07301W 01524 0059 170 031 158 158 032 01616 0000000000
2231. 1801N 07259W 01524 0059 170 031 160 160 032 01616 0000000000
2232 1801N 07257W 01524 0060 170 029 160 160 030 01616 0000000000
2232. 1801N 07256W 01523 0059 178 027 160 160 028 01615 0000000000
2233 1801N 07254W 01523 0060 167 026 160 160 028 01617 0000000000
2233. 1801N 07252W 01530 0060 165 021 158 158 024 01623 0000000000
2234 1801N 07251W 01520 0057 185 030 144 144 032 01610 0000000000
2234. 1801N 07249W 01524 0059 185 030 146 146 031 01616 0000000000
2235 1801N 07247W 01523 0060 177 030 154 154 031 01616 0000000000
2235. 1800N 07246W 01523 0061 174 034 160 160 035 01617 0000000000
2236 1800N 07244W 01524 0062 172 033 154 154 034 01619 0000000000
2236. 1800N 07242W 01525 0064 171 032 162 162 032 01621 0000000000
2237 1800N 07241W 01522 0066 167 031 162 162 033 01621 0000000000
2237. 1758N 07241W 01526 0063 165 026 150 150 029 01622 0000000000
2238 1757N 07242W 01524 0062 152 031 152 152 032 01619 0000000000
2238. 1756N 07243W 01526 0065 158 026 158 158 028 01624 0000000000
2239 1754N 07243W 01519 0063 176 027 160 160 029 01615 0000000000
;

[Aquawind]

Is this an eye?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

The opposite.. a very high cloud top with a shadow from the sun angle.. Intense blowup..

[Thunder44]

[marcane_1973]

I am just happy to finally have a strom to plot that could hit the U.S. even though Ernesto is a weakling.

[vbhoutex]

Not yet, but it is working on it. Looks like it might be working on clearing it out. Not enough subsidence yet to clear out the COC and form an eye, but it could be close.

[wxman57]

Is this an eye?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

I see an overshooting top on that storm just southwest of the western tip of Haiti. The center is located to the southwest of that squall. No ther eis no eye anywhere on that satellite image.