Tropical Storm Chris

[WindRunner]

[AJC3]

This was posted in the past 30 minutes, from the Miami WSFO Forecast Discussion:

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...... AT 18Z CHRIS WAS LOCATED A SHORT DISTANCE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISS ON A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK (ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST TRACK ACCORDING TO SJU DOPPLER RADAR). GLOBAL MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH NAM TAKING THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD...GFS AND UKMET KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING WESTWARD BUT WEAKENING IT TO AN OPEN WAVE BY THE TIME IT BEGINS TO HAVE ANY EFFECT ON SOUTH FLORIDA AND NOGAPS BEING THE ONLY ONE TO KEEP A CYCLONE CROSSING THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY SUNDAY. OTHER GUIDANCE LIKE GFDL MOVE THE SYSTEM ON A WSW TRACK GOING OVER HISPANIOLA AND EVENTUALLY OVER CUBA...NEEDLESS TO SAY...IF IT DOES THIS...IT COULD BE ITS DEMISE.

For the life of me, I can't see at all what MIA is seeing. I'm looking at a 11 hour loop, going forward and backward on it, and there is no semblance of a southward component to its motion at the end. The center gets difficult to ascertain as the radar presentation deteriorates, but it improves right at the end - still WNW from what I can see, with perhaps the occasional due westward wobble.

I'll be updating the SJU loop in a few...

[robbielyn]

If it had truly been 1007mb they would have explained why instead of just stating it.

[TS Zack]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg.gif

they have the system as an "L" by the time it reaches the tx/la coast...does that mean they think it will weaken as closes in on the coast?

Here is the 7 day loop.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

They follow the NHC, their forecast only goes through 5 days. After that they just keep it a low.

[JonathanBelles]

when willl the next vortex be in?

also what is the highest wind (not multiplied by .8) since 2? highest wind in general?

[BensonTCwatcher]

Hmmm

I guess all the models and forecasts indicate a more west ward turn about 23N. check out the 1016mb line

24 hrs http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc24_latestBW.gif

72 hrs http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif

We've seen it happen before but, but it still seems like a pretty steep left turn out 72 hours.

[flhurricaneguy]

flhurricaneguy wrote:
i think i am sick of chris, where is the next storm.


excuse me!!!!

sorry

[WindRunner]

They should be hitting the center in the next dataset, which should be out in the next 4 minutes or so . . . as to the actual VDM, that could be anywhere from 5 to 15 minutes out by my guess.

Highest FL wind hasn't been impressive . . . something like 56kts I think, but you'd have to check back (page 2/3 area) to be sure of it . . .

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 021944
AF308 0303A CHRIS HDOB 18 KNHC
1914. 1842N 06519W 01523 0094 310 016 150 150 017 01658 0000000000
1915 1843N 06518W 01524 0094 310 016 156 156 016 01659 0000000000
1915. 1844N 06517W 01523 0093 307 015 156 156 015 01657 0000000000
1916 1846N 06515W 01525 0093 305 014 156 156 014 01659 0000000000
1916. 1847N 06514W 01525 0093 305 014 156 156 015 01659 0000000000
1917 1848N 06513W 01523 0092 307 014 156 156 014 01656 0000000000
1917. 1849N 06512W 01526 0092 300 013 162 156 013 01658 0000000000
1918 1850N 06511W 01522 0091 300 013 160 160 013 01654 0000000000
1918. 1852N 06509W 01529 0091 297 013 164 164 015 01661 0000000000
1919 1853N 06508W 01519 0091 303 014 160 160 014 01650 0000000000
1919. 1854N 06507W 01526 0091 306 014 158 158 014 01658 0000000000
1920 1855N 06506W 01524 0090 308 014 162 162 015 01655 0000000000
1920. 1856N 06504W 01523 0090 313 013 162 162 015 01654 0000000000
1921 1857N 06503W 01523 0090 313 012 162 162 014 01654 0000000000
1921. 1859N 06502W 01524 0089 312 013 162 162 014 01655 0000000000
1922 1900N 06501W 01526 0089 302 010 166 164 010 01656 0000000000
1922. 1901N 06459W 01523 0089 292 010 166 166 010 01653 0000000000
1923 1902N 06458W 01525 0087 300 013 162 162 014 01653 0000000000
1923. 1903N 06457W 01523 0086 315 014 166 166 017 01649 0000000000
1924 1905N 06456W 01526 0086 309 013 162 162 014 01653 0000000000

Old obs came in.

[dixiebreeze]

Vortex Data Message
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT12 KNHC 021815
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/17:52:30Z
B. 19 deg 35 min N
063 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 1490 m
D. 30 kt
E. 154 deg 037 nm
F. 199 deg 047 kt
G. 146 deg 052 nm
H. 1006 mb
I. 11 C/ 1514 m
J. 23 C/ 1533 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.12 / 2 nm
P. AF308 0303A CHRIS OB 03
MAX FL WIND 47 KT SE QUAD 17:35:40 Z
LIGHTNING OBSERVED ON EAST SIDE OF STORM
;

[mvtrucking]

This was posted in the past 30 minutes, from the Miami WSFO Forecast Discussion:

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...... AT 18Z CHRIS WAS LOCATED A SHORT DISTANCE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISS ON A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK (ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST TRACK ACCORDING TO SJU DOPPLER RADAR). GLOBAL MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH NAM TAKING THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD...GFS AND UKMET KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING WESTWARD BUT WEAKENING IT TO AN OPEN WAVE BY THE TIME IT BEGINS TO HAVE ANY EFFECT ON SOUTH FLORIDA AND NOGAPS BEING THE ONLY ONE TO KEEP A CYCLONE CROSSING THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY SUNDAY. OTHER GUIDANCE LIKE GFDL MOVE THE SYSTEM ON A WSW TRACK GOING OVER HISPANIOLA AND EVENTUALLY OVER CUBA...NEEDLESS TO SAY...IF IT DOES THIS...IT COULD BE ITS DEMISE.

For the life of me, I can't see at all what MIA is seeing. I'm looking at a 11 hour loop, going forward and backward on it, and there is no semblance of a southward component to its motion at the end. The center gets difficult to ascertain as the radar presentation deteriorates, but it improves right at the end - still WNW from what I can see, with perhaps the occasional due westward wobble.

I'll be updating the SJU loop in a few...

It seems that the storm is right on the Trop Fcst Pts the NHC has on its sat shots?

[WindRunner]

AHA! The missing dataset is in.

EDIT: StormsAhead beat me to it. And that's an old VDM, dixie.

[Swimdude]

Thanks for the decoding Starburst!

[StormsAhead]

That vortex is old

[AJC3]

This was posted in the past 30 minutes, from the Miami WSFO Forecast Discussion:

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...... AT 18Z CHRIS WAS LOCATED A SHORT DISTANCE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISS ON A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK (ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST TRACK ACCORDING TO SJU DOPPLER RADAR). GLOBAL MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH NAM TAKING THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD...GFS AND UKMET KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING WESTWARD BUT WEAKENING IT TO AN OPEN WAVE BY THE TIME IT BEGINS TO HAVE ANY EFFECT ON SOUTH FLORIDA AND NOGAPS BEING THE ONLY ONE TO KEEP A CYCLONE CROSSING THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY SUNDAY. OTHER GUIDANCE LIKE GFDL MOVE THE SYSTEM ON A WSW TRACK GOING OVER HISPANIOLA AND EVENTUALLY OVER CUBA...NEEDLESS TO SAY...IF IT DOES THIS...IT COULD BE ITS DEMISE.

For the life of me, I can't see at all what MIA is seeing. I'm looking at a 11 hour loop, going forward and backward on it, and there is no semblance of a southward component to its motion at the end. The center gets difficult to ascertain as the radar presentation deteriorates, but it improves right at the end - still WNW from what I can see, with perhaps the occasional due westward wobble.

I'll be updating the SJU loop in a few...

It seems that the storm is right on the Trop Fcst Pts the NHC has on its sat shots?

Could be, my comment was directed toward the WSW radar-based motion. Just don't see it at all.

[Bailey1777]

AFM why do they show it as a low at day 6 - 7?

[cheezyWXguy]

Vortex Data Message
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT12 KNHC 021815
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/17:52:30Z
B. 19 deg 35 min N
063 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 1490 m
D. 30 kt
E. 154 deg 037 nm
F. 199 deg 047 kt
G. 146 deg 052 nm
H. 1006 mb
I. 11 C/ 1514 m
J. 23 C/ 1533 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.12 / 2 nm
P. AF308 0303A CHRIS OB 03
MAX FL WIND 47 KT SE QUAD 17:35:40 Z
LIGHTNING OBSERVED ON EAST SIDE OF STORM
;

Isnt that the old one?

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 021947
AF308 0303A CHRIS HDOB 20 KNHC
1934. 1929N 06430W 01522 0068 317 023 166 160 024 01630 0000000000
1935 1930N 06429W 01525 0066 318 024 172 152 025 01632 0000000000
1935. 1931N 06428W 01526 0065 319 024 180 148 026 01631 0000000000
1936 1933N 06426W 01522 0061 319 024 182 154 025 01623 0000000000
1936. 1934N 06425W 01526 0059 316 019 182 168 020 01626 0000000000
1937 1935N 06424W 01521 0056 322 022 180 172 022 01618 0000000000
1937. 1936N 06423W 01525 0054 327 025 176 170 027 01620 0000000000
1938 1937N 06421W 01526 0052 344 027 180 178 028 01619 0000000000
1938. 1938N 06420W 01524 0049 354 025 182 178 027 01614 0000000000
1939 1939N 06419W 01523 0048 360 023 190 166 024 01611 0000000000
1939. 1940N 06418W 01525 0045 357 020 198 160 022 01612 0000000000
1940 1941N 06416W 01525 0043 347 016 202 156 019 01609 0000000000
1940. 1941N 06414W 01521 0040 331 015 206 154 016 01603 0000000000
1941 1941N 06413W 01527 0039 324 016 210 148 017 01606 0000000000
1941. 1942N 06411W 01521 0036 322 016 214 142 017 01598 0000000000
1942 1943N 06409W 01528 0035 313 015 218 136 017 01603 0000000000
1942. 1944N 06408W 01519 0034 329 011 222 134 012 01594 0000000000
1943 1945N 06407W 01529 0033 307 010 224 132 011 01603 0000000000
1943. 1946N 06406W 01522 0032 310 007 226 134 008 01595 0000000000
1944 1948N 06404W 01526 0030 277 006 236 122 007 01596 0000000000

[Grease Monkey]

because past the 5 day mark they always just show a low.

[StormsAhead]

UZNT13 KWBC 021934
XXAA 52192 99260 70728 08062 99019 27450 ///// 00171 26039 30005
92854 21050 35008 85581 16230 01010 70212 07446 02513 50592 06161
18009 40763 17963 15012 30972 33957 14518 25096 43764 20033 20243
54369 16022 88999 77999
31313 09608 81901
61616 NOAA9 0403A CHRIS OB 04
62626 SPL 2603N07283W 1915 LST WND 015 MBL WND 30504 AEV 20604 DL
M WND 15506 018197 WL150 29004 089 =
XXBB 52198 99260 70728 08062 00019 27450 11850 16230 22773 12656
33700 07446 44685 06221 55654 05837 66593 00417 77578 00036 88570
00360 99560 01159 11546 01766 22531 03558 33475 08561 44459 09768
55414 15961 66349 24765 77336 27166 88324 29357 99305 32957 11207
53371 22178 57366
21212 00019 ///// 11018 27504 22850 01010 33795 03510 44739 01515
55692 03510 66521 17510 77467 14013 88455 15511 99443 14513 11430
17015 22400 15012 33390 16012 44377 14015 55334 15016 66294 14018
77282 16013 88268 19018 99245 20036 11228 20029 22208 17021 33203
15523 44178 15536
31313 09608 81901
61616 NOAA9 0403A CHRIS OB 04
62626 SPL 2603N07283W 1915 LST WND 015 MBL WND 30504 AEV 20604 DL
M WND 15506 018197 WL150 29004 089 =