Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[AJC3]

This is a plot of the Recon center fixes from today. Someone can feel free to thumbnail this if they so desire.

http://mywebpages.comcast.net/wxman0071 ... xes_IR.png

[dwg71]

its a depression?

[Scorpion]

its not intensifying and has weakened even further

Do you think it will intensify in the near future?

[Brent]

Continues to weaken.

[johngaltfla]

After watching the performance of the last 4 years, my faith in the NHC is totally restored. I think the 3 day forecast cone is still going to be dead on and gang, these westward jogs we are seeing will probably re-verify the forecast we saw at 0500 this morning. Once the Gulfstream IV data is input into the models, then and only then would I take them to heart. The pros here have been preaching not to get addicted to any one model and I follow that advice by heart.

Otherwise, I would be following the VIPIR run I saw at 1800 tonight and freaking out.....

[jwayne]

its not intensifying and has weakened even further

question: won't weak system (like td which it is right now) be more likely to move west with low level flow?

[chrisnnavarre]

its not intensifying and has weakened even further

Derek, does weak mean west??? Guess we'll find out when those 00Z and later models come out tonight.

[Derek Ortt]

weak only means west if it is a shallow system and the low level flow is to the west. This is not really a shallow system

[Sanibel]

If it is stair-stepping the next step should be north. If not, it could finally be under the guiding ridge.

[Derek Ortt]

this is not a 60 m.p.h. TS, closer to 40-45 m.p.h., meaning I wonder if the hurricane watches for the Keys will be changed to TS watches

[Weatherfreak000]

Wouldn't the system at this general moment follow the lower levels and more more West then the NHC is forecasting at the moment?

[Thunder44]

[SWFLA_CANE]

If it keeps this weakening trend up it will have a hard time surviving Cuba.

[ConvergenceZone]

its not intensifying and has weakened even further

Derek, didn't say say that it was intensifying a little while ago? or did you mean it should START intensifying? Like you said, if it stays off the coast of Cuba, it could be a long week!!!!

[kenl01]

Thank God it weakened today !!

[Bgator]

its a depression?

In my opinion no, it jsut has to good of a look, and outflow, all it is missing is convection...

[LeeJet]

this is not a 60 m.p.h. TS, closer to 40-45 m.p.h., meaning I wonder if the hurricane watches for the Keys will be changed to TS watches

Doubt it. The water off the keys will regenerate it.

[rnbaida]

where is the new advisory??? it is 8pm

[ConvergenceZone]

its not intensifying and has weakened even further

question: won't weak system (like td which it is right now) be more likely to move west with low level flow?

yeps, it's actually worse news if a weak system, because they do tend to go more westward...I'm sure intensification is beginning as we speak, The satellites pictures speak for themselves.

[Bgator]

People it is not a TD, why are you saying this, TD's dont have a look like this, if this had convection it would be a cane, there is symmetry, and good outflow...