Tropical Storm Chris

[JonathanBelles]

the latest dropsonde looks like it was dropped in the center

[WindRunner]

Decoded:

Dropsonde Observations
Storm Name: CHRIS (03L)
Mission Number: 04
Flight ID: NOAA9
Observation Number: 06
Time: 2000Z
Latitude: 24°N
Longitude: 70.7°W
Location: 389 mi NNE of Port-au-Prince, Haiti
Surface: 1019 mb; Temp: 83°F; Dewpt: 74°F; N (N/A°) @ N/A mph
1000mb height: 541 ft; Temp: 81°F; Dewpt: 74°F; E (100°) @ 10 mph
925mb height: 2789 ft; Temp: 71°F; Dewpt: 65°F; ESE (110°) @ 12 mph
850mb height: 5184 ft; Temp: 65°F; Dewpt: 50°F; E (85°) @ 9 mph
700mb height: 10545 ft; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 27°F; W (270°) @ 12 mph
500mb height: 19423 ft; Temp: 22°F; Dewpt: -7°F; SW (225°) @ 7 mph
400mb height: 25066 ft; Temp: 3°F; Dewpt: -13°F; SSW (200°) @ 14 mph
300mb height: 31955 ft; Temp: -26°F; Dewpt: -38°F; SW (225°) @ 24 mph
250mb height: 36089 ft; Temp: -44°F; Dewpt: -69°F; SW (215°) @ 13 mph
200mb height: 40879 ft; Temp: -68°F; Dewpt: -89°F; SW (225°) @ 15 mph
SPL 2403N07068W 1947 LST WND 012 MBL WND 10008 AEV 20604 DL
M WND 20506 017176 WL150 10508 087 =

1019mb winds: N (N/A°) @ N/A mph
1017mb winds: ESE (110°) @ 9 mph
880mb winds: E (95°) @ 14 mph
850mb winds: E (85°) @ 9 mph
691mb winds: W (265°) @ 14 mph
666mb winds: W (275°) @ 12 mph
484mb winds: E (100°) @ 1 mph
452mb winds: SW (220°) @ 12 mph
428mb winds: SSW (200°) @ 16 mph
388mb winds: SSW (195°) @ 13 mph
365mb winds: SSW (205°) @ 12 mph
343mb winds: WSW (250°) @ 17 mph
305mb winds: SW (235°) @ 25 mph
285mb winds: WSW (240°) @ 22 mph
245mb winds: SSW (205°) @ 14 mph
231mb winds: SW (220°) @ 15 mph
214mb winds: SSW (210°) @ 15 mph
198mb winds: SW (230°) @ 14 mph
193mb winds: SSW (205°) @ 10 mph
186mb winds: SSE (155°) @ 18 mph
169mb winds: S (170°) @ 25 mph

Now 24.0/70.7 - closer.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

They basically told me the L can be TS or Hurricane.

[MiamiensisWx]

Maybe the Gulfstream or NOAA jet should be used instead for better estimates, as they are having quite a bit of technical problems. Just great...

[Scorpion]

Where's the VDM?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it keeps moving northward it will run into even stronger wind shear...If it moves westward faster then it will run into a more faverable enviroment. As of right now the tutt/ULL has moved to 58 west. With it shearing the northeastern side with eastly winds. With 10 knot increase at 60 west. To the west shows decreasing wind shear. Which is why I say it needs to go westward as the west ULL backs westward. Overall the system looks to have fair to good outflow on all quads but the northeast which has poor. In the convection(Cdo)is about over the center. Based on visible I would say the mid level center was displaced to the southeastern side. While radar and Cimss data shows the center near the center of the deepest convection.

So overall this system looks good. In the steering maps show a ridge at 500 millibars forming to its north right now. Which should turn it to the west or west-northwest. So it will likely start out running the tutt/ULL some more. I don't understand the 1007 millibars, or why the system that has better outflow and stronger convection then yesterday weaking. But it could be dry air getting into the lower layers. We will see what he doe's.

[WindRunner]

Maybe the Gulfstream or NOAA jet should be used instead for better estimates, as they are having quite a bit of technical problems. Just great...

Oh, that's been suggested many-a-time, the only problem is the difficulty that jet engines have in turbulence, much less full-fledged storms or hurricanes. This is why the NOAA jets are relegated to the cirrus deck and the trusty prop machines get to be the low riders.

[StormsAhead]

URNT12 KNHC 022006
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/19:43:30Z
B. 19 deg 47 min N
064 deg 05 min W
C. 850 mb 1483 m
D. 20 kt
E. 234 deg 030 nm
F. 343 deg 028 kt
G. 239 deg 019 nm
H. 1005 mb
I. 18 C/ 1527 m
J. 24 C/ 1527 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF308 0303A CHRIS OB 08
MAX FL WIND 47 KT SE QUAD 17:35:40 Z
LIGHTNING OBSERVED ON EAST SIDE OF STORM

[WindRunner]

URNT12 KNHC 022006
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/19:43:30Z
B. 19 deg 47 min N
064 deg 05 min W
C. 850 mb 1483 m
D. 20 kt
E. 234 deg 030 nm
F. 343 deg 028 kt
G. 239 deg 019 nm
H. 1005 mb
I. 18 C/ 1527 m
J. 24 C/ 1527 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF308 0303A CHRIS OB 08
MAX FL WIND 47 KT SE QUAD 17:35:40 Z
LIGHTNING OBSERVED ON EAST SIDE OF STORM

[cheezyWXguy]

25mph...this thing his huge

[MiamiensisWx]

Oh, that's been suggested many-a-time, the only problem is the difficulty that jet engines have in turbulence, much less full-fledged storms or hurricanes. This is why the NOAA jets are relegated to the cirrus deck and the trusty prop machines get to be the low riders.

Correct. I was referring to using another plane, but I just couldn't come up with it at first.

[miamicanes177]

raw T3.9...almost a hurricane according to this.

[marcane_1973]

So what is the dealio here!!! At 5:00 a.m. it shows the pressure 1001mbs and now the 5:00 p.m. is saying 1007mbs. If this is true this is a weak storm that has weakened 6mbs today which is a big blow to this storm getting started on his change into a hurricane.

[Scorpion]

Wow...where'd that temp difference go? This is strange..

[tgenius]

Dvorak estimates are overruled by Recon data aren't they? (Yes I know recon hasn't hit NE quad yet)

[flhurricaneguy]

i dont see any dry air and it looks like chris is recovering from whatever was damaging him earlier

[WindRunner]

Yeah, the WC-130s are getting a little old . . . but it only ever seems like the problem is the transmission equipment. There's always data from the missing sets on the supp. vortex message (which might be coming out soon, we can't be sure), so they are collecting the data OK.

[JonathanBelles]

vortex has it at 1005 mb

[WindRunner]

UZNT13 KNHC 022009
XXAA 52208 99199 70640 04394 99006 25406 11054 00056 24811 11055
92741 22200 12529 85480 23257 10032 88999 77999
31313 09608 81945
61616 AF308 0303A CHRIS OB 11
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1989N06400W 1948 MBL WND 11046 AEV 20604 DLM W
ND 11536 006854 WL150 11054 075 =
XXBB 52208 99199 70640 04394 00006 25406 11919 22000 22893 21425
33876 23456 44850 23257 55843 21050
21212 00006 11054 11990 11053 22977 11043 33932 12528 44890 12535
55872 11525 66860 10527 77854 10032 88843 10031
31313 09608 81945
61616 AF308 0303A CHRIS OB 11
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1989N06400W 1948 MBL WND 11046 AEV 20604 DLM W
ND 11536 006854 WL150 11054 075 =

Decode shows 1006 mb with 62mph surface winds

[Air Force Met]

raw T3.9...almost a hurricane according to this.

Forget T-Numbers when recon is present. There is no reason to even look at them when a plane is available.