Tropical Storm Chris

[clfenwi]

SXXX50 KNHC 021957
AF308 0303A CHRIS HDOB 21 KNHC
1944. 1949N 06403W 01518 0027 049 001 226 144 002 01586 0000000000
1945 1950N 06402W 01530 0027 145 009 226 144 011 01598 0000000000
1945. 1951N 06401W 01518 0025 132 016 232 140 021 01584 0000000000
1946 1952N 06400W 01528 0029 105 024 212 154 026 01598 0000000000
1946. 1953N 06358W 01526 0033 100 034 212 152 040 01599 0000000000
1947 1954N 06357W 01517 0034 100 041 216 156 042 01592 0000000000
1947. 1955N 06356W 01529 0039 102 043 200 166 044 01608 0000000000
1948 1956N 06355W 01524 0043 105 042 192 168 043 01608 0000000000
1948. 1957N 06354W 01522 0046 114 045 184 172 047 01609 0000000000
1949 1959N 06353W 01528 0053 122 045 180 172 049 01621 0000000000
1949. 2000N 06352W 01523 0055 125 040 178 176 040 01619 0000000000
1950 2001N 06351W 01524 0060 129 042 182 166 042 01625 0000000000
1950. 2002N 06349W 01526 0063 126 042 178 156 044 01629 0000000000
1951 2003N 06348W 01519 0065 121 046 172 154 047 01625 0000000000
1951. 2004N 06347W 01523 0066 128 051 164 156 053 01630 0000000000
1952 2005N 06346W 01523 0065 131 050 168 156 051 01629 0000000000
1952. 2006N 06345W 01526 0067 130 051 172 140 051 01633 0000000000
1953 2007N 06344W 01525 0069 131 052 176 132 055 01634 0000000000
1953. 2008N 06342W 01522 0071 133 051 176 136 054 01634 0000000000
1954 2010N 06341W 01523 0071 135 047 176 134 049 01635 0000000000


SXXX50 KNHC 022007
AF308 0303A CHRIS HDOB 22 KNHC
1954. 2011N 06340W 01525 0073 136 049 176 126 049 01638 0000000000
1955 2012N 06339W 01524 0076 136 050 172 132 051 01642 0000000000
1955. 2013N 06338W 01523 0078 136 051 162 148 052 01642 0000000000
1956 2014N 06336W 01527 0081 135 051 158 146 052 01649 0000000000
1956. 2015N 06335W 01518 0083 134 051 152 148 051 01642 0000000000
1957 2016N 06334W 01526 0084 137 049 154 152 050 01650 0000000000
1957. 2018N 06333W 01525 0084 139 052 152 132 053 01651 0000000000
1958 2019N 06332W 01525 0085 140 053 158 116 054 01651 0000000000
1958. 2020N 06330W 01523 0085 142 050 164 120 051 01648 0000000000
1959 2021N 06329W 01525 0087 141 049 170 120 049 01652 0000000000
1959. 2022N 06328W 01524 0087 143 048 170 128 048 01652 0000000000
2000 2023N 06327W 01523 0090 141 046 168 124 046 01653 0000000000
2000. 2024N 06325W 01525 0089 142 043 172 118 044 01656 0000000000
2001 2026N 06324W 01522 0091 141 041 174 110 042 01654 0000000000
2001. 2027N 06323W 01524 0092 141 042 174 104 042 01657 0000000000
2002 2028N 06322W 01525 0093 142 041 168 122 042 01658 0000000000
2002. 2029N 06320W 01523 0093 141 043 160 134 043 01657 0000000000
2003 2030N 06319W 01525 0094 141 043 154 144 043 01660 0000000000
2003. 2031N 06318W 01524 0095 141 043 156 148 044 01659 0000000000
2004 2033N 06317W 01523 0095 141 045 144 144 047 01659 0000000000





[StormsAhead]

Just looked at FTP and all the dropsondes are there...I have no idea why they're not getting to the Recon page...

UZNT13 KNHC 022008
XXAA 52200 99196 70644 04394 99010 25607 31023 00091 24612 31528
92775 22420 85510 20022 88999 77999
31313 09608 81936
61616 AF308 0303A CHRIS OB 09
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1956N06440W 1938 MBL WND 31529 AEV 20604 DLM W
ND 31529 010980 WL150 31526 075 =
XXBB 52208 99196 70644 04394 00010 25607 11850 20022 22844 19023
21212 00010 31023 11991 31533 22980 31532 33844 32519
31313 09608 81936
61616 AF308 0303A CHRIS OB 09
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1956N06440W 1938 MBL WND 31529 AEV 20604 DLM W
ND 31529 010980 WL150 31526 075 =

Surface wind is 23 knots in the "Max wind band"

UZNT13 KNHC 022009
XXAA 52208 99198 70641 04394 99005 27620 24510 00048 27223 25011
92736 23424 03007 85480 25262 30004 88999 77999
31313 09608 81943
61616 AF308 0303A CHRIS OB 10
62626 EYE SPL 1979N06407W 1945 MBL WND 25510 AEV 20604 DLM WND 34
003 005872 WL150 25511 077 =
XXBB 52208 99198 70641 04394 00005 27620 11941 23005 22912 23636
33901 25657 44850 25262 55843 24062
21212 00005 24510 11967 25510 22933 31501 33914 04510 44910 03511
55901 04516 66884 03514 77872 35509 88843 27004
31313 09608 81943
61616 AF308 0303A CHRIS OB 10
62626 EYE SPL 1979N06407W 1945 MBL WND 25510 AEV 20604 DLM WND 34
003 005872 WL150 25511 077 =

1005mb in the center with 10kt wind, so pressure is no longer rising.

UZNT13 KNHC 022009
XXAA 52208 99199 70640 04394 99006 25406 11054 00056 24811 11055
92741 22200 12529 85480 23257 10032 88999 77999
31313 09608 81945
61616 AF308 0303A CHRIS OB 11
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1989N06400W 1948 MBL WND 11046 AEV 20604 DLM W
ND 11536 006854 WL150 11054 075 =
XXBB 52208 99199 70640 04394 00006 25406 11919 22000 22893 21425
33876 23456 44850 23257 55843 21050
21212 00006 11054 11990 11053 22977 11043 33932 12528 44890 12535
55872 11525 66860 10527 77854 10032 88843 10031
31313 09608 81945
61616 AF308 0303A CHRIS OB 11
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1989N06400W 1948 MBL WND 11046 AEV 20604 DLM W
ND 11536 006854 WL150 11054 075 =

54 knots at the surface in the NE quad!

[skysummit]

18z Plots...

[dwg71]

I expect them to back winds down to 45 or 50KTs at 4PM CST udate. JMO

[WindRunner]

A drop in the "max wind band" just gave a reading of 1006 mb / 62mph at the surface, and this of course supports at least a 50kt storm.

[Derek Ortt]

54KT in the NE quad... about 45 at the surface

shear should only be temporary

[Bocadude85]

according to mike lyons on news channel 10 recon just reported 1005mb

[Scorpion]

Well thats good. So it hasn't weakened in wind speed really.

[curtadams]

Eye measurements gave a temp of 24 and a dewpoint temp of 12. That's really dry for the inside of a TS, isn't it?

[miamicanes177]

raw T3.9...almost a hurricane according to this.

Forget T-Numbers when recon is present. There is no reason to even look at them when a plane is available.

when we have people saying this is rapidly weakening...and the hurricane aircraft has not reached the NE section...we need T numbers.

[Scorpion]

Well it looks like mainland Florida is pretty safe for now.

[dwg71]

raw T3.9...almost a hurricane according to this.

Forget T-Numbers when recon is present. There is no reason to even look at them when a plane is available.

when we have people saying this is rapidly weakening...and the hurricane aircraft has not reached the NE section...we need T numbers.

I have yet to see one post say "rapid weakening"... It is weaker though, will it stay, who knows.

[mvtrucking]

If it keeps moving northward it will run into even stronger wind shear...If it moves westward faster then it will run into a more faverable enviroment. As of right now the tutt/ULL has moved to 58 west. With it shearing the northeastern side with eastly winds. With 10 knot increase at 60 west. To the west shows decreasing wind shear. Which is why I say it needs to go westward as the west ULL backs westward. Overall the system looks to have fair to good outflow on all quads but the northeast which has poor. In the convection(Cdo)is about over the center. Based on visible I would say the mid level center was displaced to the southeastern side. While radar and Cimss data shows the center near the center of the deepest convection.

So overall this system looks good. In the steering maps show a ridge at 500 millibars forming to its north right now. Which should turn it to the west or west-northwest. So it will likely start out running the tutt/ULL some more. I don't understand the 1007 millibars, or why the system that has better outflow and stronger convection then yesterday weaking. But it could be dry air getting into the lower layers. We will see what he doe's.

Not sure about its speed (At 2pm update NHC said WNW at 10mph) but the north jog seems to have ended as of the 1915 sat loop.

[Cyclenall]

I would just keep the strength at 55 Knots at this time. It doesn't look like it's weakening on SAT and recon is maybe not in the strongest part yet?

[stormie_skies]

Basically, he is weakened some .... but certainly not on life support .... more like a head cold, or a bit of food poisoning.....

[N2FSU]

Here is the 18km resolution of the FSU MM5 model run at 12Z today (only out to 36hrs so far):

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/CHRIS.d2.track.png

[miamicanes177]

I have yet to see one post say "rapid weakening"... It is weaker though, will it stay, who knows.

for the 100th time

that recon report seems valid

Satellite also has not improved. I am not sure what has caused this, but Chris has rapidly weakened is seems, NW quad winds are barely at TS force

There is the 1 post.

[Grease Monkey]

more like a mild allergy.

[dwg71]

touche'

[Canelaw99]

Here is the 18km resolution of the FSU MM5 model run at 12Z today (only out to 36hrs so far):

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/CHRIS.d2.track.png

Not too keen on that somewhat northerly component so far (up to 36 hrs)....