Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[superfly]

I don't think this will survive Cuba if it crosses where the NHC has it crossing.

[boca]

So far big hype for this system. If that little piece of land in Haiti dropped Ernesto from 75mph to 50mph. The mountains of Cuba should finish this to depression status or maybe a wave if were lucky. I'll be suprised if Ernesto makes it back to hurricane status if it makes it across Eastern Cuba.

[Brent]

I don't think this will survive Cuba if it crosses where the NHC has it crossing.

I'm having doubts as well.

[WxGuy1]

The problem with the Charley comparison is that Charley hit, as others have noted, with a well-organized inner core. Ernesto was a developing tropical storm, which will now traverse Cuba with what is likely to be a very disorganized core. Additionally, folks continue to give 2-3 examples of storms that have traversed Cuba and still hit the Gulf coast as a major hurricane... There are MANY more storms that have been significantly weakened by Cuba, almost to the point of coming out into the Gulf as a disorganized tropical storm. So yes, there have been some storms that have been able to rapidly intensify after passing through Cuba, but there have been many more that have not.

I'm NOT saying that we won't see intensification after Ernesto passes Cuba. I do think that Ernesto will come away from Cuba as a weak tropical storm if it doesn't rapidly organize before traversing that country. Rapid intensification cycles are extraordinarily difficult to forecast (see the 5am NHC discussion, which noted that Ernesto was likely rapidly intensifying this morning...), so it's a wait-and-see game. It may be able to rapidly deepen in the Gulf, but I think the odds are not in that favor.

[Aquawind]

Is the center under that small ball of convection on N side of peninsula?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg

According to recon just go back a page in this thread..

[tallywx]

Do we have any historical tracks of a storm actually crossing over that mountainous flank of Cuba?

I know that Georges did in '98, but it had a vigorous and LARGE circulation envelope aided along by PERFECT upper-level conditions.

Any others?

[JonathanBelles]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... climo.html

[LCfromFL]

The highest point in Haiti is Pic la Selle at 2,680 meters (8,793 feet). Pic la Selle is located in the Southeastern part of the country (not on that thumb of land Ernesto has been interacting with all day.

The highest point in Cuba is Pico Turquino located about mid-way across that 'foot' in the Southeastern part of the island. Pico Turquino is 1,975 meters (6,749 feet).

[marcane_1973]

Alright guys this is no Dennis and sure as hell no Charley and not to mention conditions are not that favorable right now. There is still a lot of shear surrounding Ernesto. The latest satellite photo looks even more ragged. Because of last years storms people think every storm in this region is going to blow up in no time like Katrina. IT AINT GONNA HAPPEN THIS TIME AROUND. It takes more than warm water to strengthen a storm. Ernesto has not even formed a eye yet. Charley and Dennis were way better looking than this storm at its stage in the game. Cuba is going to rip it apart if it goes over the eastern side where all the mountains are at.

[StormWarning1]

Do we have any historical tracks of a storm actually crossing over that mountainous flank of Cuba?

I know that Georges did in '98, but it had a vigorous and LARGE circulation envelope aided along by PERFECT upper-level conditions.

Any others?

This one did.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at190001.asp

[jhamps10]

Alright guys this is no Dennis and sure as hell no Charley and not to mention conditions are not that favorable right now. There is still a lot of shear surrounding Ernesto. The latest satellite photo looks even more ragged. Because of last years storms people think every storm in this region is going to blow up in no time like Katrina. IT AINT GONNA HAPPEN THIS TIME AROUND. It takes more than warm water to strengthen a storm. Ernesto has not even formed a eye yet. Charley and Dennis were way better looking than this storm at its stage in the game. Cuba is going to rip it apart if it goes over the eastern side where all the mountains are at.

IT'S CALLED LAND INTERACTION!!!!! THERE IS NO SHEAR IN THIS AREA OTHER THAN THE SHEAR CREATED BY THE MOUNTAINS!!!!!!!!! Get real man.

[CronkPSU]

i may be totally wrong but i thought reading here last year that the less organized the storm is, the less land interaction messes with it

[boca]

I think Ernesto will go poof like Chris did earlier this month after crossing Cuba into a wave. My 2cents.

[Blown Away]

Based on the satellite, Looks like the center is over or just N of the peninsula?

[Evil Jeremy]

if it only goes through the area that is currently under the Hurricane Warning, it should be ale to restrengthen back into a hurricane.

[benny]

this is not a 60 m.p.h. TS, closer to 40-45 m.p.h., meaning I wonder if the hurricane watches for the Keys will be changed to TS watches

Derek I dont mean to argue with you, but some of your comments the last 2 days have really surprised me.

#1 you stated Ernesto "will not strike the west coast of florida"
#2 Hurricane watches/ warnings are posts if they expect hurricane conditions. They obviously expect this to intensify. What does the current intensity have to do with the expected winds in 48 hours?

I'm not Derek, but as far as #1, NOTHING is set in stone with these storms.

Remember, was it yesterday? , that it was going to hit Texas?

I know this is the most likely scenario TODAY it hitting western Florida, but it COULD change again.

Nature is crazy like that.

We are all slaves to the models.. when you realize that they know more than we do...

[chris_fit]

When is next recon going in?

[Aquawind]

When is next recon going in?

10:30pm..

[jinftl]

what a challenge this storm is for all those forecasting it and in emergency management....if the storm is dismissed it could blow up in their faces, if they put up hurricane watches and warnings and it fizzles, they will get slammed by the public. Tough couple of days for them!

[cinlfla]

I been looking at the satellite and watching the movement. I have a feeling it's not going to go over Cuba maybe north of it maybe skirt it, but I don't think through it. Just my opinion