Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[Opal storm]

I thought it was a ULL that killed Chris,not Cuba.Am I wrong?

[AJC3]

When is next recon going in?

I think it takes off at 0230UTC (1030 PM EDT) and is tasked with the center fixes from 0600 UTC (2 AM) to 1200 UTC (8 AM).

[cheezyWXguy]

nope...Chris died before it even hit Cuba...and for another thing, This storm hasnt had its MLC decouple from its LLC

[HURAKAN]

I thought it was a ULL that killed Chris,not Cuba.Am I wrong?

Right. Chris dissipated before reaching Cuba.

[chris_fit]

When is next recon going in?

I think it takes off at 0230UTC (1030 PM EDT) and is tasked with the center fixes from 0600 UTC (2 AM) to 1200 UTC (8 AM).

Thats a long flight!

[saints63213]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 993.0mb/ 59.0kt

[wxman57]

i may be totally wrong but i thought reading here last year that the less organized the storm is, the less land interaction messes with it

That is quite true. Weak systems have less to lose.

[Trugunzn]

Chis died because of strong shear. So this is not like Chris2!

[AJC3]

When is next recon going in?

I think it takes off at 0230UTC (1030 PM EDT) and is tasked with the center fixes from 0600 UTC (2 AM) to 1200 UTC (8 AM).

Thats a long flight!

I went on one once - hard to believe that was all of 6 years ago.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/20sep00recon.html

The center fix flights for well established TC's take about 9 hours - sometimes the low level invest flights, like the one I went on, are shorter.

[chris_fit]

When is next recon going in?

I think it takes off at 0230UTC (1030 PM EDT) and is tasked with the center fixes from 0600 UTC (2 AM) to 1200 UTC (8 AM).

Thats a long flight!

I went on one once - hard to believe that was all of 6 years ago.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/20sep00recon.html

The center fix flights for well established TC's take about 9 hours - sometimes the low level invest flights, like the one I went on, are shorter.

I would do anything to got on one of those flights

[Aquawind]

So is everything on schedule for takeoff from St Croix in 15 minutes?

[craptacular]

I downloaded the ReconExcel file from the storm2k recon page, but it asks for a password when you try to unprotect the sheets so that you can put in new data. Anyone know what it is? It's not blank.

[Aquawind]

I am trying to get it for you craptacular..

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...ERNESTO CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE BAHAMAS.

AT 11 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND
CAYMAN BRAC.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST OR ABOUT 155
MILES...255 KM...WEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 115 MILES...
185 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE
VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HAITI...AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AS
IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
TO THE EAST THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL...ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...18.6 N...74.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
0300 UTC MON AUG 28 2006

AT 11 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND
CAYMAN BRAC.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 74.7W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 150SE 50SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 74.7W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 74.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.6N 75.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.2N 77.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.8N 79.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.0N 81.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 27.0N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 31.0N 81.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 35.0N 77.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 74.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[craptacular]

I am trying to get it for you craptacular..

Thanks. Earlier today, someone asked about a dropsonde reading, and the info I found looked greek to me. The decoder would be nice!

[cycloneye]

[gotoman38]

I downloaded the ReconExcel file from the storm2k recon page, but it asks for a password when you try to unprotect the sheets so that you can put in new data. Anyone know what it is? It's not blank.

as i recall, no need to unprotect the sheet - just paste the data in the blank area as per the instructions and the decoded text will be produced.

[Aquawind]

The guru is gone so hopefully gotoman38 is right.

[flyingphish]

That is not pretty. A slow mover pre-Cuba and a slow mover post Cuba, with 36 hours to strengthen before a Fl. landfall. I hate to bring Charley back in, but he ramped from a one to a four in about half this time.

[chris_fit]

Where is the NHC FTP site where the latest transmissions are placed? I will post the obs while I'm still awake....