Tropical Storm Chris

[cheezyWXguy]

Wow...this thing is just like me...im going thru puberty and im in an early stage of my life and have a long way to go! (plus my name is CHris if yall didnt know)

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 5pm track is slightly different. First it takes Chris WNW, then more W, and then back to WNW again.

[dwg71]

I expect them to back winds down to 45 or 50KTs at 4PM CST udate. JMO

I don't. The recon just found 54 knot winds at the surface.

We will see, there certainly wont be an increase in windspeed.

I agree with you there. I doubt the windspeed will be raised unless they find 60 knot+ surface winds within the next few minutes.

4PM CST - 50KTS -- ding,ding, ding we have a winner -

[WindRunner]

FINALLY some data

URNT11 KNHC 022023
97779 20174 40211 62708 15200 14031 15158 /2567
41420
RMK AF308 0303A CHRIS OB 12

[Air Force Met]

AFM. Your the pro here. Do you see a struggiling system right now? Also do you see it going as far North as the 36hr. track posted right above says?

No. I see a system that had a tstm complex collapse in the NW side...and an outflow boundry was sent out to the NW (you can still see it at 22-23N and 65W...moving N and NW. This creates divergence at the sfc...which causes pressures to rise and a temporary loss of convergence at the sfc. Which is why convection is lacking on the west side.

Once the outflow boundry moves away...the circulation will get back in order...and convection will wrap back around the center...pressures will drop again.

[mvtrucking]

From the 2pm advisory to the 5pm= .4 North/ .3 West(WNW it is)

2pm: 19.5 North
64.0 West

5pm: 19.9 North
64.3 West

[Extremeweatherguy]

I expect them to back winds down to 45 or 50KTs at 4PM CST udate. JMO

I don't. The recon just found 54 knot winds at the surface.

We will see, there certainly wont be an increase in windspeed.

I agree with you there. I doubt the windspeed will be raised unless they find 60 knot+ surface winds within the next few minutes.

4PM CST - 50KTS -- ding,ding, ding we have a winner -

well i've got to give it to you. you were right.

[HouTXmetro]

well looks like a slight southward shift from earlier near the end of the track.

[El Nino]

I'm really not seeing Chris shifting towards Hispanola. Maybe affecting North of Cuba, but I'm going definitely for FL Straights and GOM, and JB theory.

[skufful]

Very little if any change to the projected track.

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/imag ... 3_5day.gif

Looks like we should be seeing a more westerly move by the next expected point, at 2 am

[westmoon]

Chris was just going through puberty.

Just what we need a hormonal teen

[chris_fit]

From the 2pm advisory to the 5pm= .4 North/ .3 West(WNW it is)

2pm: 19.5 North
64.0 West

5pm: 19.9 North
64.3 West

Hmmmm

[WindRunner]

[Extremeweatherguy]

well looks like a slight southward shift from earlier near the end of the track.

yes, toward Sunday you are right, but Monday looks to be at the same location or north of where the earlier track was.

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 PM EDT WED AUG 02 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
CHRIS HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE. MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
WERE 55 KT AND A DROPSONDE SHOWED A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF 55 KT
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT.
THE VERY SMALL INNER CORE...I.E. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF ORDER
10 N MI...THAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY HAS DISAPPEARED.
FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA NOW SHOW THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE 30 TO 40 N
MI FROM THE CENTER. ALSO THE PRESENTATION FROM THE SAN JUAN
WSR-88D DOPPLER SUGGESTS A LESS-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ANIMATION OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS ARC CLOUDS EMANATING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE STORM. ALL OF
THE ABOVE SUGGEST THAT LITTLE INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY IN THE
SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...THE WIND MAXIMUM COULD CONTRACT AND
INTENSIFICATION RESUME. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE STORM AND...BASED ON THE RECON FIX...WHICH IS NEAR THE
5000 FT LEVEL...AND THE RADAR FIXES...WHICH ARE NEAR THE 25000 FT
LEVEL...THE VORTEX IS TILTED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FAIRLY CONDUCIVE FOR
THE INTENSIFICATION OF CHRIS...WITH THE STORM LOCATED BETWEEN TWO
UPPER-LEVEL LOWS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER OTHER GLOBAL
MODELS....SUCH AS THE U.K. MET... SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER WINDS MAY
NOT BE SO CONDUCIVE. THE LATTER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CHRIS
COULD ENCOUNTER A SHARP EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR
AXIS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS IN AROUND 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST DELAYS THE STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE
IN COMPARISON TO THE PAST FEW ADVISORIES...AND IS STILL A LITTLE
ABOVE THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION IS ROUGHLY THE SAME AS BEFORE AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE
300/9. BASED ON THE LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL MODELS...A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS IS PREDICTED TO
MOVE WESTWARD...AND THE DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF
CHRIS IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN. CONSISTENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...THE MODEL CONSENSUS CALLS FOR A
MORE WESTWARD MOTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE THE SOUTHERNMOST OF THE TRACK MODELS
AND THE U.K. MET. IS THE NORTHERNMOST...HOWEVER THE LATTER MODEL
LOSES THE CIRCULATION AFTER 72 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS
ADVISORY IS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BY DAYS 4-5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 19.9N 64.3W 50 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 20.4N 65.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 21.0N 67.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 21.3N 69.2W 65 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 21.7N 71.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 22.5N 75.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 23.5N 80.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 07/1800Z 24.5N 84.5W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[WindRunner]

URNT14 KNHC 022034
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01186 10654 12551 11615 28013
02188 20653 22547 21616 30013
03189 30651 32543 31616 31010
04191 40649 42540 41715 31013
05193 50647 52535 51613 30022
06195 60645 62522 61716 31024
07197 70643 72502 71916 36023
MF196 M0644 MF028
OBS 01 AT 19:11:20Z
OBS 07 AT 19:38:50Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 27010
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01200 10639 12505 11817 12049
02201 20637 22525 21814 13049
03203 30635 32539 31612 14051
04205 40633 42547 41614 14042
05207 50631 52556 51615 13038
06209 60629 62564 61515 15035
07210 70628 72566 71515 14032
MF201 M0637 MF055
OBS 01 AT 19:48:30Z
OBS 07 AT 20:16:20Z
OBS 07 SFC WND 14020
AF308 0303A CHRIS OB 13

[brunota2003]

Lets see...I hope the rule "What doesn't kill him will only make him stronger" does not apply...

[HouTXmetro]

My question, is it just hearsay or is Chris suppose to feel some sort of weakness in the ridge come Monday which will temporarily give it a more northward motion?

[canegrl04]

From listening to the forecaster that was on FOX news,he said Chris likely won't become a hurricane untill Thursday morning.This must be what the NHC believes,too

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 022036
AF308 0303A CHRIS HDOB 25 KNHC
2024. 2110N 06301W 01524 0108 133 032 156 152 033 01673 0000000000
2025 2110N 06303W 01524 0109 130 032 154 154 033 01674 0000000000
2025. 2110N 06305W 01524 0109 129 032 150 150 032 01674 0000000000
2026 2110N 06307W 01528 0109 129 031 150 150 031 01677 0000000000
2026. 2111N 06309W 01523 0109 128 031 148 148 031 01673 0000000000
2027 2111N 06312W 01523 0109 127 032 146 146 033 01672 0000000000
2027. 2111N 06314W 01524 0108 127 033 146 146 034 01672 0000000000
2028 2111N 06316W 01525 0107 126 034 148 146 035 01673 0000000000
2028. 2111N 06318W 01524 0108 128 034 148 142 034 01673 0000000000
2029 2111N 06321W 01523 0109 130 035 146 146 035 01673 0000000000
2029. 2112N 06323W 01525 0109 131 036 146 146 037 01674 0000000000
2030 2112N 06325W 01524 0109 130 036 146 146 037 01673 0000000000
2030. 2112N 06328W 01525 0110 130 037 146 146 037 01675 0000000000
2031 2112N 06330W 01523 0109 127 038 148 148 038 01673 0000000000
2031. 2112N 06332W 01524 0109 123 039 146 146 039 01674 0000000000
2032 2112N 06335W 01524 0108 122 039 146 146 040 01673 0000000000
2032. 2113N 06337W 01523 0108 122 038 148 148 038 01672 0000000000
2033 2113N 06339W 01525 0108 121 035 142 142 038 01674 0000000000
2033. 2113N 06342W 01524 0108 124 033 146 146 034 01672 0000000000
2034 2113N 06344W 01525 0107 124 033 142 142 034 01673 0000000000