Tropical Storm Chris

[Stratosphere747]

Some may not want to hear this..

But there is a possiblity that Chris does not even make landfall on the CONUS.

[Bailey1777]

Thanks AFM. Thanks for taking the time to explain to us amatuers what is going on from the point of fact of somebody who knows. What an education I'm getting!

[StormsAhead]

UZNT13 KWBC 022035
XXAA 52202 99248 70670 07947 99020 27450 06508 00178 25837 06508
92859 20022 11506 85585 15830 11509 70216 09069 11005 50593 05358
16506 40764 16963 10501 30974 32364 34008 25100 43163 30015 20247
53768 36013 88999 77999
31313 09608 82003
51515 10190 15427
61616 NOAA9 0403A CHRIS OB 08
62626 SPL 2484N06705W 2017 MBL WND 06508 AEV 20604 DLM WND 05503
018179 WL150 07008 086 =
XXBB 52208 99248 70670 07947 00020 27450 11946 21217 22850 15830
33827 14837 44820 15259 55798 15671 66784 14263 77735 10461 88705
09271 99643 05262 11627 04675 22606 02881 33595 02262 44587 01665
55581 01259 66565 00158 77505 04959 88469 09159 99456 10363 11440
11760 22425 13757 33415 14765 44392 18160 55317 28967 66253 42563
77214 49771 88169 60763
21212 00020 06508 11945 08005 22850 11509 33823 11510 44801 09510
55394 00000 66293 33010 77239 30517 88228 30510 99212 04010 11195
35514 22187 01515 33179 05014 44169 12017
31313 09608 82003
51515 10190 15427
61616 NOAA9 0403A CHRIS OB 08
62626 SPL 2484N06705W 2017 MBL WND 06508 AEV 20604 DLM WND 05503
018179 WL150 07008 086 =

[WindRunner]

Well, it appears they are making the north leg of their flight at this point, though we aren't getting any minobs out of them.

EDIT: Never mind, minobs just came in . . .

[Canelaw99]

From the 2pm advisory to the 5pm= .4 North/ .3 West(WNW it is)

2pm: 19.5 North
64.0 West

5pm: 19.9 North
64.3 West

But, over a 6 hr. span, from the 11a to the 5p, it was .7N and .9W:

11a: 19.2N 63.4 W

5p: 19.9N 64.3 W

[Air Force Met]

well looks like a slight southward shift from earlier near the end of the track.

yes, toward Sunday you are right, but Monday looks to be at the same location or north of where the earlier track was.

The 5 day foreacst point has moved 2 degrees west since the 5am advisory this morning.

[HouTXmetro]

Some may not want to hear this..

But there is a possiblity that Chris does not even make landfall on the CONUS.

Chris may want to eat some authentic Mexican food.

[WindRunner]

[skufful]

From the 2pm advisory to the 5pm= .4 North/ .3 West(WNW it is)

2pm: 19.5 North
64.0 West

5pm: 19.9 North
64.3 West

Am I missing something, or is .4 North, and .3 West not NW ( a little more northerly than westerly)?

[skysummit]

Thunderstorms are really building in the SW'n quadrant....lots of lightning too.

[cheezyWXguy]

ya looking a lot better on satelite appearance

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

[Blown Away]

At 11am the 12 hour NHC position was 19.8/64.8!

At 5pm the position was 19.9/64.3! Chris is already .1 N of the position it was forecasted to be at 11pm tonight!

[WindRunner]

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 022046
AF308 0303A CHRIS HDOB 26 KNHC
2034. 2113N 06346W 01525 0107 125 035 142 142 036 01672 0000000000
2035 2113N 06349W 01524 0107 124 035 146 144 036 01671 0000000000
2035. 2114N 06351W 01524 0107 123 036 150 138 036 01671 0000000000
2036 2114N 06353W 01524 0107 124 035 156 132 035 01672 0000000000
2036. 2114N 06355W 01523 0106 119 034 156 150 034 01670 0000000000
2037 2114N 06358W 01522 0106 112 036 156 152 036 01668 0000000000
2037. 2114N 06400W 01526 0106 114 036 154 152 037 01673 0000000000
2038 2114N 06402W 01523 0106 115 032 158 148 033 01670 0000000000
2038. 2115N 06405W 01524 0106 113 033 162 134 034 01671 0000000000
2039 2115N 06407W 01524 0106 114 034 162 136 035 01671 0000000000
2039. 2115N 06409W 01523 0105 114 034 158 130 034 01669 0000000000
2040 2115N 06412W 01524 0105 111 033 160 118 033 01670 0000000000
2040. 2115N 06414W 01524 0105 113 033 162 094 033 01670 0000000000
2041 2115N 06416W 01524 0105 110 032 160 100 033 01669 0000000000
2041. 2116N 06419W 01524 0104 106 031 160 130 032 01668 0000000000
2042 2116N 06421W 01525 0103 106 033 156 142 033 01668 0000000000
2042. 2116N 06423W 01523 0103 107 033 160 130 033 01666 0000000000
2043 2116N 06426W 01526 0103 105 033 160 132 034 01670 0000000000
2043. 2116N 06428W 01524 0103 104 033 164 136 034 01667 0000000000
2044 2116N 06430W 01523 0103 103 031 168 130 032 01666 0000000000
;

[cheezyWXguy]

UZNT13 KWBC 022035
XXAA 52202 99248 70670 07947 99020 27450 06508 00178 25837 06508
92859 20022 11506 85585 15830 11509 70216 09069 11005 50593 05358
16506 40764 16963 10501 30974 32364 34008 25100 43163 30015 20247
53768 36013 88999 77999
31313 09608 82003
51515 10190 15427
61616 NOAA9 0403A CHRIS OB 08
62626 SPL 2484N06705W 2017 MBL WND 06508 AEV 20604 DLM WND 05503
018179 WL150 07008 086 =
XXBB 52208 99248 70670 07947 00020 27450 11946 21217 22850 15830
33827 14837 44820 15259 55798 15671 66784 14263 77735 10461 88705
09271 99643 05262 11627 04675 22606 02881 33595 02262 44587 01665
55581 01259 66565 00158 77505 04959 88469 09159 99456 10363 11440
11760 22425 13757 33415 14765 44392 18160 55317 28967 66253 42563
77214 49771 88169 60763
21212 00020 06508 11945 08005 22850 11509 33823 11510 44801 09510
55394 00000 66293 33010 77239 30517 88228 30510 99212 04010 11195
35514 22187 01515 33179 05014 44169 12017
31313 09608 82003
51515 10190 15427
61616 NOAA9 0403A CHRIS OB 08
62626 SPL 2484N06705W 2017 MBL WND 06508 AEV 20604 DLM WND 05503
018179 WL150 07008 086 =

Can you translate this for me?

[AJC3]

At 11am the 12 hour NHC position was 19.8/64.8!

At 5pm the position was 19.9/64.3! Chris is already .1 N of the position it was forecasted to be at 11pm tonight!

Minor bone pick - Keep in mind the H12 forecast point is from the synoptic time of 12Z (8AM), not the forecast init time 15Z (11AM). So that point you gave is for 8PM this evening. Still north of it already...but just wanted to clarify for you.

INITIAL 02/1500Z 19.2N 63.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 19.8N 64.8W 60 KT

[CronkPSU]

ya looking a lot better on satelite appearance

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

looks pretty impressive on that sat image

[Stratosphere747]

Some may not want to hear this..

But there is a possiblity that Chris does not even make landfall on the CONUS.

Chris may want to eat some authentic Mexican food.

It's just so far out HouTex. My first concern if for our neighbors to the east. Then and IF it gets into the Gulf, of course the attention will shift.

If the high is strong enough, and there is no weakness, this just might be a Mexico storm.

[WindRunner]

Decoded by request:

Dropsonde Observations
Storm Name: CHRIS (03L)
Mission Number: 04
Flight ID: NOAA9
Observation Number: 08
Time: 2000Z
Latitude: 24.8°N
Longitude: 67°W
Location: 445 mi N of San Juan, Puerto Rico
Surface: 1020 mb; Temp: 81°F; Dewpt: 72°F; ENE (65°) @ 9 mph
1000mb height: 584 ft; Temp: 78°F; Dewpt: 72°F; ENE (65°) @ 9 mph
925mb height: 2818 ft; Temp: 68°F; Dewpt: 64°F; ESE (115°) @ 7 mph
850mb height: 5200 ft; Temp: 60°F; Dewpt: 55°F; ESE (115°) @ 10 mph
700mb height: 10551 ft; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 14°F; ESE (110°) @ 6 mph
500mb height: 19455 ft; Temp: 22°F; Dewpt: 8°F; SSE (165°) @ 7 mph
400mb height: 25066 ft; Temp: 2°F; Dewpt: -22°F; ESE (105°) @ 1 mph
300mb height: 31955 ft; Temp: -26°F; Dewpt: -51°F; NNW (340°) @ 9 mph
250mb height: 36089 ft; Temp: -46°F; Dewpt: -69°F; WNW (300°) @ 17 mph
200mb height: 40912 ft; Temp: -65°F; Dewpt: -97°F; N (360°) @ 15 mph
SPL 2484N06705W 2017 MBL WND 06508 AEV 20604 DLM WND 05503
018179 WL150 07008 086 =

1020mb winds: ENE (65°) @ 9 mph
945mb winds: E (80°) @ 6 mph
850mb winds: ESE (115°) @ 10 mph
823mb winds: ESE (115°) @ 12 mph
801mb winds: E (95°) @ 12 mph
394mb winds: N (0°) @ 0 mph
293mb winds: NNW (330°) @ 12 mph
239mb winds: NW (305°) @ 20 mph
228mb winds: NW (305°) @ 12 mph
212mb winds: NE (40°) @ 12 mph
195mb winds: N (355°) @ 16 mph
187mb winds: NNE (15°) @ 17 mph
179mb winds: NE (50°) @ 16 mph
169mb winds: ESE (120°) @ 20 mph

Still a long ways out, sampling the area supposedly containing that outflow boundary from that collapse earlier today.

[mempho]

Some may not want to hear this..

But there is a possiblity that Chris does not even make landfall on the CONUS.

I was about to agree with you wholeheartedly, but when I was reasoning out my post I realized that while a lot has to go right for Chris to survive, it will be difficult for Chris to not find some weakness in the ridge as he tears across the GOM. I will agree that it's much more than a remote possibility, however. In fact, the possibility still exists for Chris to follow the GFDL and slam into Hispaniola.