Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

[Bonedog]

yup early this morning it was 94L

[WmE]

Yeah it was 94L for a couple of hours.

[Bonedog]

I think this will be Helene by the 5pm. Just my unoffical newbie guess.

Looks like its getting its act together fast

[southerngale]

Thanks for the responses, all. It looks like fish is most likely. Of course I'll be watching and tracking anyway, but it's nice to know that should anything strong develop from this, people should be spared.

I sure hope your wong. I really do. I hope it at least has a chance.

Who are you talking to?

[Derek Ortt]

center appears to be somewhat south of the NHC position based upon sat imagery

[Lowpressure]

NE side of system eating some dry air in what appears to be the mid-levels. If the NE side can get symetrical, we will be well on our way to TS status, if not, it will be longer.

[Thunder44]

I think this will be Helene by the 5pm. Just my unoffical newbie guess.

Looks like its getting its act together fast

Looking at the drospondes this morning winds seem to be 25mph max sustained at the surface, with a lowest pressure so far at 1010mb. I don't think this is anywhere near a TS yet.

[gatorcane]

how much farther south?

[Bonedog]

Looking at the drospondes this morning winds seem to be 25mph max sustained at the surface, with a lowest pressure so far at 1010mb. I don't think this is anywhere near a TS yet.

Still trying to figure out those dropsonde things. When I saw all the 35s 45s and 50s I figured it was in diffrent quadrants. Didnt realize the surface was only 25kts. Your right then. It will be a few days out.. NE side needs to fill in I guess.

[Thunder44]

Looking at the drospondes this morning winds seem to be 25mph max sustained at the surface, with a lowest pressure so far at 1010mb. I don't think this is anywhere near a TS yet.

Still trying to figure out those dropsonde things. When I saw all the 35s 45s and 50s I figured it was in diffrent quadrants. Didnt realize the surface was only 25kts. Your right then. It will be a few days out.. NE side needs to fill in I guess.

I said 25mph.

Well if you want to use the winds reported at 700mb and the standard reduction of .9, you get winds around 35mph max. But the highest surface wind reported I've seen is 22mph.

[dixiebreeze]

Looks like lots more behind TD 8, too:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/rb-l.jpg

[robbi1972]

wow is the baby TD but he ave the eye?

[flhurricaneguy]

no definetly not an eye yet.

[flhurricaneguy]

but it is a very impressive system for the time being

[sma10]

To my eye systems that jump off Africa at that latitude generally recurve unless forced down by a strong ridge. There's no strong ridge out there.

Exactly.

All else equal, a system that forms that far to the east has a very small chance of making the entire Atlantic trek (climatologically speaking). However, it IS possible (Donna, Georges, for example), but it needs a very special setup in order to make the whole 10-12 day journey to the US.

Initially, the first 4-5 days or so, there is potential. As Derek predicts, (and to some extent the GFS, GFDL and NHC) TD8 can skip along rapidly to the west at fairly low latitudes to a position around 15N-18N and 50-55W. However, this is where is appears TD8 will hit a speed bump. For the system to continue west or WNW there HAS to be a strong ridge to continue to propel it. The GFS has been steadfastly consistent in destroying the ridge. Unless that changes, TD8 in the long term has no choice but to turn northwards. In fact, the UK and Euro have been even more bearish. They think the ridge isn't strong enough to bring TD8 very much past 40W. Odds are stacked against this system for the time being.

Anyone drawing comparisons with Georges must realize this is nowhere near the same situation. With Georges, it was apparent early that the ridge would hold Georges down for a long time.

[Nimbus]

No cat phives this year?

[Bonedog]

sorry i did just notice the mph. Stupid newbie mistakes

[quandary]

Wait until after October 25 to say 'no more cat phives.'

No matter what, we have had Hurricane Wilma just last year and Hurricane Mitch in mid and late October.

Also, one of my personal favorite storms, Hurricane Lenny, hit 155 mph in November. It also moved west to east.

Of course, we haven't had a Cat 3 yet.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS turns "Helene" northward between 40W-45W. I really don't see anything to carry this storm all the way to the Caribbean yet.

[AJC3]

12Z GFS turns "Helene" northward between 40W-45W. I really don't see anything to carry this storm all the way to the Caribbean yet.

Indeed. The 12Z GFS has trended closer to the EURO/UKM solutions of an earlier turn to the north. It appears the persistent pattern of a pronounced weakness in the H50 pattern over the western Atlantic shows no sign of abating anytime soon.

Caveats about day 5+ speculations and the utility of extended range guidance notwithstanding, here are a few thoughts...

Even though the center of 08L has continued to lose latitude today (it looks like it's closer to 11.8N or so on the NRL site, a due westward track at a farther south latitude for the next 3 days or so may not mean so much this time around as far as the proverbial "will it miss or catch the trough?" Why?

The pattern is not one where a short wave trough embedded in the westerlies puts a trasient "dent" in the western portion of the ST ridge, which then rebuilds back westward in short order. What we're seeing is a persistent longer wave trough of farily significant amplitude, that has shorter wave features riding through it. Once the short wave lifts out, what we've been left with up til now has STILL been a broad weakness west of 60W (give or take).

Sure this pattern can change, but usuallly there would be at least some sign of this change possibly occurring in the global models. There is none, so far as I can tell.

Like most of us here have said, nothing is set in stone, especially this far out in time, however there isn't any compelling evidence out there to think otherwise. After all, we've seen how speculations about Flo and Gordo "missing the trough" have turned (and are turning) out.