Tropical Storm Chris

[mtm4319]

924
SXXX50 KNHC 022246
AF308 0303A CHRIS HDOB 38 KNHC
2234. 1906N 06259W 01525 0105 191 026 152 118 026 01671 1101000000
2235 1908N 06259W 01527 0105 188 026 150 134 026 01672 1101000000
2235. 1910N 06258W 01514 0104 193 024 148 134 025 01659 1101000000
2236 1912N 06259W 01529 0103 192 022 136 136 023 01673 1101000000
2236. 1914N 06259W 01521 0101 188 026 150 150 029 01663 1101000000
2237 1916N 06259W 01528 0103 178 031 154 138 034 01672 1101000000
2237. 1917N 06259W 01526 0104 183 027 154 144 028 01671 1101000000
2238 1919N 06259W 01526 0104 182 028 152 136 032 01670 1101000000
2238. 1922N 06259W 01535 0103 173 036 150 128 037 01680 0000000000
2239 1925N 06300W 01525 0105 172 036 150 132 037 01671 0000000000
2239. 1927N 06300W 01522 0104 172 034 150 132 035 01668 0000000000
2240 1928N 06259W 01530 0106 175 031 146 134 035 01677 1101000000
2240. 1931N 06300W 01524 0106 171 034 142 138 036 01672 0000000000
2241 1933N 06300W 01525 0106 172 035 144 134 036 01673 0000000000
2241. 1936N 06300W 01525 0106 169 035 146 126 036 01672 0000000000
2242 1938N 06300W 01531 0106 169 035 142 128 037 01679 0000000000
2242. 1941N 06300W 01527 0106 168 038 146 118 038 01675 0000000000
2243 1943N 06300W 01525 0107 168 039 146 110 039 01673 0000000000
2243. 1945N 06300W 01525 0106 170 039 150 098 040 01673 0000000000
2244 1948N 06300W 01523 0106 168 039 148 122 040 01672 0000000000
;

[max]

to update that pic...anyone with GR3 or can see the radar out of PR, can see its almost a ring now.

I have to agree with you after looking in GR3 . . . that actually is the center of rotation, and there have been 4 lightning strikes in that area in the last 20 minutes . . . it also aligns perfectly with that little puff of convection just west of smack in the middle of the CDO, and where the recon made the last vortex fix. I believe it is an eye!

And now we have a complete ring of 45dBZ+ returns surrounded by and surrounding 30dBZ returns. Granted the beam is at 22,000 feet, but it still looks like an eye to me!

I am seeing the exact same thing.

[Toadstool]

Well I may have missed it before so forgive me but, it looks like the UKMET has chimed in on this one.

Can I ask, am I the only one that is puzzled by the XTRAP being included in every plot? It's not a forecast (in fact, it usually is the opposite). Why do they include it with the models?

It's certainly not the opposite, it's just the current direction extended.

i think a lot of people use it as a point of reference to see where and how the models expect it to change course

I see, thank you for the replies. I can see how it would be interesting, though not useful (unless Jacksonville, FL should start evacuating now). (kidding by the way).

[darkclouds]

I beleive Chris is weakening a bit due to shear, but it may get stronger once it can get away from the high shear.

Umm, your saying the same thing Derek and the other mets have already stated. You bash a met and then indirectly quote what they've already stated.

[Noles2006]

maybe an eyewall setting up?? High DBZ as well as nice rotation and light...

I think you are pointing at an outerband, not the center.

Nah.

[Extremeweatherguy]

hmm, looking at the WV, it seems like Chris may actually be heading a bit south as a system to it's north moves south. However, it also looks like Chris will be shot back WNW or NW once it gets a little further west. Here is the loop so you can judge for yourself:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

[HurricaneHunter914]

Its because I have been looking at some of the data he's been looking at and not only that there is still some SAL this TS has to go through. I was just kinda mad at the time because I thought he was saying this is going to weaken alot.

[Noles2006]

I beleive Chris is weakening a bit due to shear, but it may get stronger once it can get away from the high shear.

Umm, your saying the same thing Derek and the other mets have already stated. You bash a met and then indirectly quote what they've already stated.

Good point.

Let's see what Dr. Steve says... "not showing any signs of organizing"... shows the wind shear from the north... hoping it gets tangled up in the islands [Cuba] and weakens.

[mvtrucking]

I am seeing that also ExtremeWG. It looked like the last couple of frames have been almost sw?

[HurricaneHunter914]

I beleive Chris is weakening a bit due to shear, but it may get stronger once it can get away from the high shear.

Umm, your saying the same thing Derek and the other mets have already stated. You bash a met and then indirectly quote what they've already stated.

Good point.

Let's see what Dr. Steve says... "not showing any signs of organizing"... shows the wind shear from the north... hoping it gets tangled up in the islands [Cuba] and weakens.

I'm entitled to change my mind when I want. I just looked at the current conditions and then I realized that he was right. You know, I'm not perfect.

[Extremeweatherguy]

PR radar seems to be showing a brief SW motion too:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

What do the pro mets think? Is this temporary or it is really be shunted southward?

[Blown Away]

hmm, looking at the WV, it seems like Chris may actually be heading a bit south as a system to it's north moves south. However, it also looks like Chris will be shot back WNW or NW once it gets a little further west. Here is the loop so you can judge for yourself:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

The models keep shifting South! Seems the track through DR and through Cuba is more likely, especially w/ the hint of a SW jog if that continues the GFDL is loking accurate.

[tgenius]

I am watchin the local news here in miami and it sure does look like a slight jog southwest..but need more frames to make sure...

[JonathanBelles]

are there any live satelites that dont have frames?

[darkclouds]

Its because I have been looking at some of the data he's been looking at and not only that there is still some SAL this TS has to go through. I was just kinda mad at the time because I thought he was saying this is going to weaken alot.

and so what if it does? Are you then going to get mad because it did that? Unless, your met or someone with a lot of experience and I mean a lot, I would just sit back and learn just like I am. I am no met or experienced person, but when it comes to this, I shut up, listen, and learn..

[HurricaneHunter914]

Its because I have been looking at some of the data he's been looking at and not only that there is still some SAL this TS has to go through. I was just kinda mad at the time because I thought he was saying this is going to weaken alot.

and so what if it does? Are you then going to get mad because it did that? Unless, your met or someone with a lot of experience and I mean a lot, I would just sit back and learn just like I am. I am no met or experienced person, but when it comes to this, I shut up, listen, and learn..

I guess I do have trouble shutting up. I guess I'll start now.

[miamicanes177]

It is running away from the higher shear. 5-10kts just ahead of it. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[mtm4319]

140
SXXX50 KNHC 022256
AF308 0303A CHRIS HDOB 39 KNHC
2244. 1950N 06300W 01526 0107 165 038 144 134 038 01674 0000000000
2245 1953N 06301W 01526 0107 165 039 142 128 039 01674 0000000000
2245. 1955N 06301W 01526 0108 163 039 140 134 040 01675 0000000000
2246 1957N 06301W 01524 0108 161 038 142 134 038 01673 0000000000
2246. 2000N 06301W 01527 0108 161 037 148 138 037 01677 0000000000
2247 2002N 06301W 01523 0109 156 037 152 132 038 01674 0000000000
2247. 2005N 06301W 01527 0108 156 039 156 124 039 01677 0000000000
2248 2007N 06301W 01525 0108 155 038 158 120 039 01675 0000000000
2248. 2009N 06302W 01526 0107 156 038 156 122 038 01675 0000000000
2249 2012N 06303W 01526 0106 155 039 156 120 039 01674 0000000000
2249. 2014N 06303W 01525 0106 155 040 150 128 040 01673 0000000000
2250 2016N 06304W 01524 0106 152 038 150 130 038 01672 0000000000
2250. 2019N 06305W 01527 0107 150 040 156 120 040 01676 0000000000
2251 2021N 06306W 01525 0106 148 038 156 124 039 01673 0000000000
2251. 2023N 06307W 01523 0107 146 036 156 132 037 01671 0000000000
2252 2026N 06307W 01527 0107 149 036 160 124 036 01675 0000000000
2252. 2028N 06307W 01524 0107 148 037 164 114 037 01673 0000000000
2253 2030N 06307W 01527 0109 149 036 164 114 037 01678 0000000000
2253. 2033N 06307W 01522 0109 146 035 158 144 035 01673 0000000000
2254 2035N 06307W 01527 0110 144 036 156 150 037 01679 0000000000
;

[Innotech]

this little guy is fighting the odds. Its going to zigzag and flip flop for a while before getting its act together as storms often do. Dont expect every hurricane to just bomb out like they did last year. Last year we must have gotten switched with an alien planet atmosphere or something

[HouTXmetro]

I think it's just a wobble because the intense ball of convection has somewhat of a SW movement. Overall it's still northwest as far as the center is concerened. Just My opinion.