Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 282319
AF309 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 41 KNHC
2310 2207N 07734W 00305 5021 065 029 224 224 029 00295 0000000000
2310. 2206N 07733W 00304 5021 066 028 224 224 028 00293 0000000000
2311 2205N 07732W 00305 5021 068 023 226 226 023 00294 0000000000
2311. 2203N 07731W 00305 5021 072 022 226 226 023 00294 0000000000
2312 2202N 07730W 00304 5022 070 021 226 226 022 00292 0000000000
2312. 2201N 07729W 00306 5023 066 020 226 226 021 00293 0000000000
2313 2200N 07728W 00305 5024 065 020 226 226 021 00291 0000000000
2313. 2159N 07727W 00306 5024 062 021 226 226 021 00292 0000000000
2314 2158N 07726W 00303 5025 063 023 228 228 023 00288 0000000000
2314. 2157N 07725W 00304 5026 065 021 226 226 022 00289 0000000000
2315 2155N 07724W 00305 5027 063 020 226 226 021 00288 0000000000
2315. 2154N 07723W 00305 5028 073 017 228 228 018 00288 0000000000
2316 2153N 07722W 00303 5029 108 010 228 228 012 00284 0000000000
2316. 2152N 07721W 00305 5028 114 010 222 222 011 00288 0000000000
2317 2151N 07720W 00305 5027 115 011 228 228 011 00289 0000000000
2317. 2150N 07719W 00306 5027 114 011 226 226 013 00289 0000000000
2318 2150N 07717W 00305 5027 136 016 222 222 018 00288 0000000000
2318. 2149N 07716W 00304 5028 133 018 226 226 018 00286 0000000000
2319 2148N 07714W 00305 5028 128 019 224 224 019 00287 0000000000
2319. 2148N 07713W 00304 5029 127 022 226 226 023 00286 0000000000

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 282329
AF309 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 42 KNHC
2320 2147N 07712W 00305 5029 124 024 226 226 024 00286 0000000000
2320. 2146N 07711W 00305 5028 123 024 224 224 024 00287 0000000000
2321 2146N 07710W 00305 5028 126 025 224 224 025 00287 0000000000
2321. 2145N 07708W 00305 5029 126 027 226 226 027 00287 0000000000
2322 2144N 07707W 00305 5030 129 027 222 222 028 00285 0000000000
2322. 2143N 07706W 00305 5029 130 028 222 222 028 00286 0000000000
2323 2142N 07705W 00305 5029 130 027 220 220 028 00286 0000000000
2323. 2142N 07704W 00305 5028 129 027 220 220 028 00287 0000000000
2324 2141N 07703W 00305 5028 125 028 218 218 029 00287 0000000000
2324. 2140N 07701W 00305 5028 128 028 220 220 028 00288 0000000000
2325 2139N 07700W 00304 5027 124 027 218 218 027 00287 0000000000
2325. 2139N 07659W 00306 5027 124 027 220 220 028 00289 0000000000
2326 2138N 07658W 00301 5028 124 029 224 224 029 00284 0000000000
2326. 2137N 07657W 00306 5028 126 028 224 224 029 00289 0000000000
2327 2136N 07656W 00305 5028 122 028 224 224 029 00288 0000000000
2327. 2135N 07655W 00304 5028 122 030 228 224 031 00286 0000000000
2328 2135N 07654W 00305 5028 119 029 224 224 029 00287 0000000000
2328. 2134N 07652W 00304 5029 122 030 222 222 030 00286 0000000000
2329 2133N 07651W 00305 5029 125 030 222 222 031 00287 0000000000
2329. 2132N 07650W 00304 5028 126 031 220 220 032 00286 0000000000

[Stratosphere747]

True Calm. But there is also a certain distance they have to stay offshore as well.

[gopherfan21]

The recon NEVER flies over land due to atmospheric turbulence due to boundary layer interactions with the friction of the land.

Cuba almost 100% always allows the planes in their airspace because it is a data reconnaissance gathering and it saves the lives of people in both Cuba and the United States.

Now, let's refrain from making unknowledgeable comments about the politics of both countries and get back to Ernesto.

[Thunder44]

[Jevo]

what were we talking about again.... oh a possible landfalling hurricane keep your eye on the ball people

[Stormavoider]

what were we talking about again.... oh a possible landfalling hurricane keep your eye on the ball people

RECON

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 282339
AF309 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 43 KNHC
2330 2132N 07649W 00304 5028 124 031 220 220 032 00287 0000000000
2330. 2131N 07648W 00305 5027 128 031 222 222 032 00288 0000000000
2331 2130N 07647W 00305 5027 129 031 224 224 032 00289 0000000000
2331. 2129N 07646W 00304 5027 133 033 224 224 033 00288 0000000000
2332 2129N 07645W 00305 5026 133 033 224 224 033 00290 0000000000
2332. 2128N 07644W 00304 5026 132 034 222 222 034 00288 0000000000
2333 2127N 07642W 00306 5025 135 033 224 224 033 00291 0000000000
2333. 2126N 07641W 00303 5024 135 032 222 222 033 00289 0000000000
2334 2126N 07640W 00305 5023 130 031 218 218 032 00293 0000000000
2334. 2126N 07639W 00305 5022 134 032 220 220 033 00294 0000000000
2335 2128N 07639W 00308 5022 135 035 222 222 036 00296 0000000000
2335. 2128N 07641W 00303 5023 130 036 226 222 036 00290 0000000000
2336 2129N 07642W 00306 5025 128 037 222 222 038 00291 0000000000
2336. 2130N 07644W 00304 5025 126 037 220 220 039 00289 0000000000
2337 2131N 07646W 00304 5026 122 037 218 218 037 00288 0000000000
2337. 2132N 07647W 00306 5027 124 036 220 220 037 00290 0000000000
2338 2133N 07649W 00304 5027 121 035 220 220 036 00287 0000000000
2338. 2134N 07651W 00304 5027 119 035 220 220 035 00287 0000000000
2339 2135N 07652W 00306 5027 119 034 218 218 035 00289 0000000000
2339. 2136N 07654W 00304 5027 117 034 220 220 034 00288 0000000000

[kevin]

I am yet to see how my answering a question was so horrible, when there are half a dozen posts saying the same thing about how horrible it is.

Last word. Continue.

[Stratosphere747]

The recon NEVER flies over land due to atmospheric turbulence due to boundary layer interactions with the friction of the land.

Cuba almost 100% always allows the planes in their airspace because it is a data reconnaissance gathering and it saves the lives of people in both Cuba and the United States.

Now, let's refrain from making unknowledgeable comments about the politics of both countries and get back to Ernesto.

I'll stand by my statement, and I doubt for this mission they have been given clearance within the 12 mile zone. Being that the planes are operating near Cuba, it is on-topic.


Q. Does Cuba Permit or Even Support Operations When the Storm is over the Island?

A. Cuba does permit operations by both NOAA and the US Air Force Reserves in its territorial waters when a hurricane is in the vicinity of the Island. Both units operate for the most part outside the 12-mile limit, although NOAA have been permitted to operate over land occasionally. The Cuban government is very supportive of this operation as aircraft reconnaissance information is the main source of information to them before the storm makes landfall.

Source

http://www.aoc.noaa.gov/faq.htm

[Brent]

The recons don't fly over land anyway so I'm not sure what the issue is here.

[Thunder44]

[craptacular]

The last two passes have both shown an area where the wind changes direction by 50-80 degrees in a matter of minutes. The vortex (if there is one) still seems to be onshore or just barely offshore, but somewhere south of the 22N, 77.5W area.

2241. 2141N 07701W 00304 5036 131 026 224 224 027 00278 0000000000
2242 2141N 07703W 00306 5036 130 026 222 222 027 00280 0000000000
2242. 2142N 07705W 00304 5035 127 024 222 222 025 00280 0000000000
2243 2143N 07706W 00305 5035 121 024 224 224 025 00281 0000000000
2243. 2144N 07708W 00305 5033 117 023 224 224 024 00283 0000000000
2244 2144N 07710W 00304 5033 114 023 222 222 023 00282 0000000000
2244. 2145N 07711W 00306 5032 110 024 216 216 024 00284 0000000000
2245 2146N 07713W 00304 5032 108 025 224 224 025 00282 0000000000
2245. 2146N 07715W 00304 5031 108 025 226 226 025 00283 0000000000
2246 2147N 07716W 00307 5030 103 023 222 222 024 00287 0000000000
2246. 2148N 07718W 00302 5030 087 025 228 228 025 00282 0000000000
2247 2149N 07719W 00306 5029 085 025 226 226 025 00288 0000000000
2247. 2150N 07721W 00304 5028 079 024 228 228 025 00287 0000000000


2313. 2159N 07727W 00306 5024 062 021 226 226 021 00292 0000000000
2314 2158N 07726W 00303 5025 063 023 228 228 023 00288 0000000000
2314. 2157N 07725W 00304 5026 065 021 226 226 022 00289 0000000000
2315 2155N 07724W 00305 5027 063 020 226 226 021 00288 0000000000
2315. 2154N 07723W 00305 5028 073 017 228 228 018 00288 0000000000
2316 2153N 07722W 00303 5029 108 010 228 228 012 00284 0000000000
2316. 2152N 07721W 00305 5028 114 010 222 222 011 00288 0000000000
2317 2151N 07720W 00305 5027 115 011 228 228 011 00289 0000000000
2317. 2150N 07719W 00306 5027 114 011 226 226 013 00289 0000000000
2318 2150N 07717W 00305 5027 136 016 222 222 018 00288 0000000000

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
800 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

...CENTER OF ERNESTO STILL INLAND OVER CUBA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
FLORIDA FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...FROM
SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CHOKOLOSKEE NORTHWARD
TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO NEW
SMYRNA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS...THE BIMINIS AND...GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND
GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND
CAMAGUEY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS JUST INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA...ABOUT 30 MILES...
45 KM...EAST OF CAMAGUEY.

OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...19 KM/HR. HOWEVER...A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA INTO THE ATLANTIC
DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER
WATER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
HAITI. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
BAHAMAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...21.4 N...77.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Thunder44]

8pm NHC position included.

[cycloneye]

Thunder44,it says 5 PM not 8 PM at the pic.

[tallywx]

Ernesto continues to do itself disfavors. 8 p.m. position is FARTHER inland that 5 p.m.

[Thunder44]

Thunder44,it says 5 PM not 8 PM at the pic.

I just changed it.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Ernesto continues to do itself disfavors. 8 p.m. position is FARTHER inland that 5 p.m.

Please everybody . . . stop . . . think . . . post.

09 GMT 08/28/06 19.6N 75.4W 50 1002 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/28/06 20.3N 75.7W 40 1006 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/28/06 21.3N 76.9W 40 1007 Tropical Storm

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... track.html

[cycloneye]

Definitly a more WNW motion as Thunder44 posted the 5 and 8 pm positions.