Tropical Storm Chris

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KFDM Meteorologist
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#2681 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:41 pm

Possible. I see a pattern change toward the end of the month that would favor Florida and the east Coast.
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#2682 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:41 pm

On another note, IF the high is centered over LA/E-TX, wouldn't that open the door for a weakness in the MS/AL/FL panhandle area?
Last edited by HouTXmetro on Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:42 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#2683 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:41 pm

It only changes during the complete advisories, not the intermediate
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#2684 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:42 pm

Image

00:00z BAM Models Graphic.
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Noles2006
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#2685 Postby Noles2006 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:48 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:On another note, IF the high is centered over LA/E-TX, wouldn't that open the door for a weakness in the MS/AL/FL panhandle area?


Bah! Shush yo' mouth!

Nothing is showing that right now, though, so I'm not worried.
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#2686 Postby dwg71 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:48 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:On another note, IF the high is centered over LA/E-TX, wouldn't that open the door for a weakness in the MS/AL/FL panhandle area?


the steering currets move clockwise around a high and i would not expect it to go east of the high.
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Bluefrog
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#2687 Postby Bluefrog » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:51 pm

not mississippi please ... we've had enough :roll:
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#2688 Postby CourierPR » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:53 pm

It looks like someone has earned the Mel Gibson Award.
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#2689 Postby f5 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:55 pm

will Chris get that buzzsaw look like Katrina had we will see
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#2690 Postby wxman22 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 7:59 pm

The latest Model run shows that the models seem to be considilating closer together(Espeecialy the BAMM)
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#2691 Postby wxwonder12 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:03 pm

is the UKMET a pretty accurate model???
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#2692 Postby CronkPSU » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:05 pm

wxwonder12 wrote:is the UKMET a pretty accurate model???


sometimes...the NHC seems to trust the GFDL and GFS a lot more though
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mvtrucking
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#2693 Postby mvtrucking » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:06 pm

You can sure see where the top of Chris was flatened with the shear to the north in the 2245-2345 frames. Almost like a big boot stepped on it..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html
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#2694 Postby tgenius » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:06 pm

RadarSat imagery deff shows a WSW or due West motion in the last few frames.. anyone concur?
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#2695 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:06 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:latest from JB says that he thinks this storm is very weak right now, but that it can come back. He said that if it did come back it could be stronger than ever and likely be a TX Gulf coast storm. However, he said a track further south along TX rather than further north is more likely at this time.


Ok, well that seals is for now, the consensus is South Texas/ Northern Mexico. I've uniformly heard this from most mets. Things can change but until the synoptic setup changes thats what I'm going with.
actually the consensus is south or central TX. This is probably not a Mexico storm. However, we are still a good week out and a forecast THAT accurate THAT far out is usually never accurate, so stay tuned for updates. All it will take is the strength or position of the high to be slightly different and the path will change.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2696 Postby Aquawind » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:08 pm

mvtrucking wrote:You can sure see where the top of Chris was flatened with the shear to the north in the 2245-2345 frames. Almost like a big boot stepped on it..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html



Yep.. Some shear is shrinking Chris a tad.
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#2697 Postby Grease Monkey » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:10 pm

It really does look to be moving SW in the last couple of frames.
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#2698 Postby mtm4319 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:11 pm

I suggest we lock this once the new recon flight takes off (and after this post, one more reply will put it on the 25th page).
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#2699 Postby Grease Monkey » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:13 pm

I'll make it official. :cheesy:
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LeeJet

#2700 Postby LeeJet » Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:14 pm

Is this sw turn just a wobble?
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