Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

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cycloneye
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#2741 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:56 am

That last set has very light winds including a 1kt one.
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Eyewall

#2742 Postby Eyewall » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:58 am

very odd.
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Patrick99
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#2743 Postby Patrick99 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:59 am

Scorpion wrote:I still expect a high pressure. The pressure just doesn't seem to be dropping at all with this storm.


I'm surprised the pressure hasn't dropped yet. It does look better. Pretty naked of convection on the south/southwest quad though. Maybe that fills in more as it pulls away from Cuba.
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#2744 Postby craptacular » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:59 am

They made a jog east, then looks like they found it at about 23.3N, 75.2W, or 3/10 of a degree east of where the NHC put it at 11AM.

edit: Sorry if this caused confusion ... this was just my guess based on the minobs. Wait for the VDM.
Last edited by craptacular on Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2745 Postby jpigott » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:00 am

cycloneye wrote:That last set has very light winds including a 1kt one.


makes you wonder if the center is getting its act together
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MiamiensisWx

#2746 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:01 am

Although several of the latest flight-level winds have been very low, they are likely in the vicinity of the LLC. Also, the storm is still rather disorganized and is in the slow process of reorganization. Higher winds may be found in the eastern and northern sides.
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StormsAhead
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#2747 Postby StormsAhead » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:02 am

URNT40 KWBC 291450
NOAA2 1505A ERNESTO
144100 2430 07823 7553 +0396 142022 +140 +094 142023 032 000
144200 2433 07827 7552 +0398 140023 +142 +093 143026 035 000
144300 2435 07832 7553 +0401 142025 +137 +105 144027 036 001
144400 2437 07836 7551 +0399 137027 +139 +096 139029 034 000
144500 2439 07840 7553 +0399 138028 +137 +099 138029 032 000
144600 2441 07845 7553 +0401 135026 +135 +098 134027 032 000
144700 2443 07849 7551 +0401 135024 +133 +104 135025 032 000
144800 2446 07853 7552 +0399 133024 +131 +115 132026 030 001
144900 2448 07858 7552 +0400 131025 +130 +118 130027 030 001
145000 2450 07902 7552 +0399 129025 +132 +114 131026 030 001

A lot of 30-35 knots at the surface, higher than at FL.

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Thunder44
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#2748 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:04 am

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Scorpion

#2749 Postby Scorpion » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:05 am

Whats taking the VDM so long to come?
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#2750 Postby StormsAhead » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:05 am

SXXX50 KNHC 291502
AF308 1605A ERNESTO HDOB 19 KNHC
1452. 2310N 07904W 00427 5022 176 024 230 230 026 00417 0000000000
1453 2309N 07903W 00427 5022 169 025 232 232 026 00416 0000000000
1453. 2308N 07902W 00428 5022 171 029 208 208 033 00417 0000000000
1454 2307N 07901W 00423 5023 171 032 206 206 033 00412 0000000000
1454. 2306N 07900W 00430 5022 171 031 204 204 032 00420 0000000100
1455 2305N 07859W 00426 5021 172 034 226 226 035 00416 0000000000
1455. 2304N 07858W 00427 5021 172 032 222 222 032 00418 0000000000
1456 2303N 07857W 00428 5020 173 034 216 216 035 00419 0000000000
1456. 2302N 07856W 00423 5019 182 034 226 226 036 00416 0000000000
1457 2301N 07855W 00428 5018 177 031 202 202 032 00422 0000000100
1457. 2300N 07854W 00428 5016 177 033 212 212 033 00424 0000000000
1458 2259N 07853W 00425 5015 178 033 226 226 033 00422 0000000000
1458. 2259N 07852W 00427 5014 180 031 226 226 032 00425 0000000000
1459 2258N 07851W 00426 5013 180 032 226 226 032 00425 0000000000
1459. 2257N 07850W 00426 5012 183 032 226 226 032 00426 0000000000
1500 2256N 07849W 00427 5011 181 032 226 226 032 00427 0000000000
1500. 2255N 07848W 00427 5010 182 032 230 230 033 00428 0000000000
1501 2254N 07847W 00427 5009 183 033 230 228 033 00429 0000000000
1501. 2253N 07846W 00426 5009 185 035 230 222 036 00429 0000000000
1502 2252N 07845W 00427 5008 184 034 230 222 035 00430 0000000000

30-36 knots at FL in the eastern quad
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StormsAhead
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#2751 Postby StormsAhead » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:06 am

Scorpion wrote:Whats taking the VDM so long to come?


They passed the center only 20 minutes ago. It always takes 20-30 minutes. We should get it soon.
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#2752 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:08 am

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#2753 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:13 am

URNT12 KNHC 291510
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/14:43:20Z
B. 23 deg 29 min N
079 deg 26 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 30 kt
E. 301 deg 051 nm
F. 045 deg 028 kt
G. 301 deg 050 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 23 C/ 430 m
J. 24 C/ 430 m
K. 22 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 8 nm
P. AF308 1605A ERNESTO OB 06
MAX FL WIND 28 KT NW QUAD 14:26:20 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
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#2754 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:16 am

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#2755 Postby StormsAhead » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:16 am

URNT40 KWBC 291500
NOAA2 1505A ERNESTO
145100 2452 07906 7550 +0399 119026 +139 +102 118028 028 000
145200 2454 07911 7553 +0401 117026 +150 +097 118027 029 000
145300 2456 07915 7549 +0404 116028 +144 +100 119029 031 001
145400 2453 07917 7546 +0396 107027 +140 +098 107027 028 001
145500 2449 07917 7551 +0391 104024 +141 +100 103026 027 002
145600 2445 07916 7552 +0387 102021 +141 +100 101022 029 000
145700 2441 07916 7553 +0387 100022 +139 +098 099024 029 000
145800 2437 07916 7553 +0382 100023 +140 +094 098024 029 000
145900 2433 07916 7553 +0377 098025 +142 +108 100026 032 003
150000 2429 07916 7556 +0373 107025 +144 +114 104025 034 001
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#2756 Postby StormsAhead » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:17 am

SXXX50 KNHC 291512
AF308 1605A ERNESTO HDOB 20 KNHC
1502. 2251N 07844W 00427 5007 183 032 230 224 033 00431 0000000000
1503 2250N 07843W 00427 5007 184 032 226 226 033 00432 0000000000
1503. 2249N 07842W 00428 5006 185 029 226 226 030 00433 0000000000
1504 2248N 07841W 00427 5006 184 028 220 220 030 00433 0000000000
1504. 2247N 07840W 00425 5005 170 021 202 202 021 00432 0000000000
1505 2246N 07839W 00428 5005 170 026 198 198 028 00435 0000000100
1505. 2245N 07838W 00427 5004 176 027 216 216 028 00435 0000000000
1506 2244N 07836W 00425 5004 178 028 226 226 029 00433 0000000000
1506. 2243N 07835W 00427 5002 180 027 230 230 028 00437 0000000000
1507 2243N 07834W 00427 5001 177 027 228 228 027 00437 0000000000
1507. 2242N 07832W 00426 5000 172 027 226 226 028 00437 0000000000
1508 2242N 07831W 00427 0000 169 026 226 226 027 00439 0000000000
1508. 2242N 07829W 00426 0001 170 025 226 226 026 00438 0000000000
1509 2241N 07828W 00428 0002 170 025 226 226 026 00442 0000000000
1509. 2241N 07826W 00427 0003 168 025 226 226 025 00441 0000000000
1510 2240N 07825W 00427 0004 166 026 226 226 027 00442 0000000000
1510. 2240N 07823W 00427 0004 163 027 226 226 028 00442 0000000000
1511 2240N 07821W 00427 0005 163 028 226 226 029 00444 0000000000
1511. 2239N 07820W 00427 0005 163 029 226 226 029 00443 0000000000
1512 2239N 07818W 00427 0005 167 028 230 230 028 00444 0000000000
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#2757 Postby chris_fit » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:17 am

URNT12 KNHC 291510
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/14:43:20Z
B. 23 deg 29 min N
079 deg 26 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 30 kt
E. 301 deg 051 nm
F. 045 deg 028 kt
G. 301 deg 050 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 23 C/ 430 m
J. 24 C/ 430 m
K. 22 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 8 nm
P. AF308 1605A ERNESTO OB 06
MAX FL WIND 28 KT NW QUAD 14:26:20 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.


Back to bed... lol
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Thunder44
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#2758 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:20 am

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#2759 Postby StormsAhead » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:22 am

URNT11 KWBC 291500
97779 15004 30244 79349 23000 11024 15118 /8011
RMK NOAA2 1505A ERNESTO OB 14 KWBC

Turning back to the south
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StormsAhead
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#2760 Postby StormsAhead » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:23 am

URNT40 KWBC 291510
NOAA2 1505A ERNESTO
150100 2425 07917 7557 +0364 107026 +147 +116 104029 036 002
150200 2421 07918 7551 +0355 094025 +142 +118 095028 037 004
150300 2417 07918 7556 +0343 093030 +138 +122 093034 039 007
150400 2413 07919 7552 +0328 108028 +143 +133 112035 039 012
150500 2409 07920 7555 +0332 099019 +142 +122 095025 031 002
150600 2405 07920 7554 +0329 099015 +146 +102 097016 031 002
150700 2400 07921 7555 +0326 080014 +153 +102 076015 029 005
150800 2356 07921 7557 +0327 090014 +151 +102 088019 020 001
150900 2352 07922 7558 +0331 103011 +152 +078 102011 010 000
151000 2347 07923 7556 +0330 103015 +145 +090 107017 007 000

35 knots FL, 39 knots SFMR

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