Tropical Storm Chris

[Nimbus]

Back of the ridge is sinking but that is probably in the upper levels which is causing the shear.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM AST WED AUG 02 2006

...CHRIS TURNS WESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI TO SANTO DOMINGO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST OR ABOUT 95
MILES...155 KM...NORTH OF ST. THOMAS AND ABOUT 125 MILES...200 KM...
NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...ALTHOUGH THE
CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE WOBBLED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
CHRIS WOULD STAY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...A CONTINUED
MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF DUE WEST COULD BRING THE CENTER OF CHRIS
VERY CLOSE TO PUERTO RICO THURSDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF THE
TRACK OF THE CENTER...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PUERTO RICO AND U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE
CHRIS IN A FEW HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...19.8 N...64.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

000
WTNT23 KNHC 030244
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
0300 UTC THU AUG 03 2006

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI TO SANTO DOMINGO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 64.9W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 64.9W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 64.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.1N 66.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.4N 68.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.8N 70.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.2N 72.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.0N 77.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.5N 82.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 23.5N 87.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 64.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[f5]

i bet he won't be looking like Rita if he gets tangled up in those islands as Dr.Lyons suggest

[Extremeweatherguy]

Chris still 60mph, 1007mb. Moving west. 5-day forecast keeps Chris a TS and moves it over Cuba, but STILL brings it into the Gulf (where it could become a Hurricane later on).

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/imag ... 3_5day.gif

[MississippiHurricane]

CHRIS TURNS WESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI TO SANTO DOMINGO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST OR ABOUT 95
MILES...155 KM...NORTH OF ST. THOMAS AND ABOUT 125 MILES...200 KM...
NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...ALTHOUGH THE
CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE WOBBLED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
CHRIS WOULD STAY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...A CONTINUED
MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF DUE WEST COULD BRING THE CENTER OF CHRIS
VERY CLOSE TO PUERTO RICO THURSDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF THE
TRACK OF THE CENTER...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING OCCASIONAL HEAVY
RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PUERTO RICO AND U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE
CHRIS IN A FEW HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...19.8 N...64.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Chris still 60mph, 1007mb. Moving west. 5-day forecast keeps Chris a TS and moves it over Cuba, but STILL brings it into the Gulf (where it could become a Hurricane later on).

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/imag ... 3_5day.gif

If it follows that track it wont make it out of Havanna..

[JonathanBelles]

this is where i stand on the turn: i think it may have wobbled but a turn maybe a few degrees but a turn to the SW, no. not yet. i think we all agree that this will re-intensify, but i think it will happen in the early mornng hours into a maximal tropical storm or peripheral hurricane. 60-65 kts at most in the morning. short term i think it will be 50kts/55kts with a movement at 10/11 mph going 270 to 290 +/- 10 degrees. right now i think it wil skirt cuba and move into the GOM. this is my first forecast and should not be taken officialy.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Chris still 60mph, 1007mb. Moving west. 5-day forecast keeps Chris a TS and moves it over Cuba, but STILL brings it into the Gulf (where it could become a Hurricane later on).

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/imag ... 3_5day.gif

If it follows that track it wont make it out of Havanna..

I disagree. Western Cuba is not that mountainous (compared to the DR).

[AJC3]

I do not think this has dipped to the SW

This on nighttime visible looks like more NW shear and the center may become exposed again

Just discussing this point on the "SJU radar" thread. If you look at the last half hour or so, it becomes evident that this is indeed likely occurring.

Note the fine line to the west of the CDO. I think it's representative of the low cloud bands and its curvature implies the LLC is north of the SW-ward moving CDO. What's spinning in the middle of the CDO is the MLC, not the LLC.

Decoupling would be a possibility if the trend were to continue for several more hours. However, Chris has already shown itself to be a pretty tenacious TC. Interesting night coming up.

[ROCK]

Chris still 60mph, 1007mb. Moving west. 5-day forecast keeps Chris a TS and moves it over Cuba, but STILL brings it into the Gulf (where it could become a Hurricane later on).

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/imag ... 3_5day.gif

that takes him out of the LPC somewhat which is good news I guess.

[MississippiHurricane]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 5day?large

[DESTRUCTION5]

Chris still 60mph, 1007mb. Moving west. 5-day forecast keeps Chris a TS and moves it over Cuba, but STILL brings it into the Gulf (where it could become a Hurricane later on).

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/imag ... 3_5day.gif

If it follows that track it wont make it out of Havanna..

I disagree. Western Cuba is not that mountainous (compared to the DR).

That track does not enter Western Cuba

[Brent]

Chris still 60mph, 1007mb. Moving west. 5-day forecast keeps Chris a TS and moves it over Cuba, but STILL brings it into the Gulf (where it could become a Hurricane later on).

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/imag ... 3_5day.gif

If it follows that track it wont make it out of Havanna..

I disagree. Western Cuba is not that mountainous (compared to the DR).

But Central Cuba is... I don't know whether it'd die there, but it would certainly weaken significantly.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Well, now the forecast track has it going over Cuba.

[Tampa_God]

Any chance this could wobble back to the North or NW?

[wxman22]

NEW TRACK:

[Pebbles]

Oh man.. i can't wait for the discussion now *drools*

[Extremeweatherguy]

Any chance this could wobble back to the North or NW?

yes. The whole cone of error needs to be realized. The chance this is exactly where the NHC says it will be on day 3-5 is not that great.

[MississippiHurricane]

It shows the storm at 70 MPH before cuba, 50 MPH on land and then right back to 70 MPH