Tropical Storm Chris

[beachbum_al]

And we will wake up tomorrow and things will be different again. Like everyone has said...don't focus on the black dotted line. A lot can happen. It could go to the north or to the south. Who knows at this present time.

[wxman22]

Remember Cuba's Elevation is not as high as as PR's & especially Hispanolia so dont let your guard down just yet. Stateing how conservative the NHC been with Chris I would think that if they really thought it would "poof" they would have showed that in their forcast....

[Derek Ortt]

That track across Cuba typically causes no weakening.

Kate 1985 spent a day over the pancake flat portion of Cuba and only ahd an 8mb pressire rise

[miamicanes177]

The NHC has Chris over cuba for 24 hours and only weakening 15kts? Hmm...

[miamicanes177]

That track across Cuba typically causes no weakening.

Well it certainly has to weaken some considering it will be over land

[wxman22]

Tropical Storm CHRIS Forecast Discussion
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UPDATE US Watch/Warning
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000
WTNT43 KNHC 030300
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 02 2006

CHRIS HAS TURNED WESTWARD THIS EVENING...AS INDICATED BY A SERIES OF
AIRCRAFT RECON FIXES ENDING AROUND 00Z...WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM
SAN JUAN...AND GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...THE RADAR IMAGERY EVEN SUGGESTS A MOTION A LITTLE SOUTH OF
DUE WEST. FOR NOW I WILL CONSIDER THAT SOUTHWARD COMPONENT AS A
WOBBLE AND ESTIMATE THE INITIAL MOTION TO BE WESTWARD OR 270
DEGREES AT 7 KT. THE ONLY DYNAMICAL MODEL TO FORECAST A WESTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE GFDL...AND ITS SOUTHERN
TRACK SOLUTION NO LONGER SEEMS SO MUCH OF AN OUTLIER.
ALSO...OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE HAS SHIFTED
SOUTH...SEEMINGLY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD...BUT OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE REMAINING MODELS...NOT AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE GFDL.

CHRIS HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY PRODUCING VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER THIS EVENING...WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -80C.
WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM SAN JUAN DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS
DEPICTED A CIRCULATION NEAR 25000 FT IN ALTITUDE. THE LAST FIX FROM
THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT AROUND 00Z LOCATED THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER A LITTLE WEST OF THAT FEATURE...WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1007 MB. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.
IN ACCORDANCE WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...THE NEW
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY IN THE
PERIOD BEFORE IT POSSIBLY INTERACTS WITH THE LANDMASSES OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES. FOLLOWING THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...CHRIS
WOULD PASS OVER LAND LONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEFORE EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...IF IT LASTS THAT
LONG.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0300Z 19.8N 64.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 20.1N 66.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 20.4N 68.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 20.8N 70.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 21.2N 72.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 06/0000Z 22.0N 77.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 07/0000Z 22.5N 82.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 08/0000Z 23.5N 87.5W 60 KT

$$

[jhamps10]

call me crazy, but I think that NHC put the line over cuba just because of the wobble that he did tonight. U personally think that the high will make chris move more northwest than west. No I do not think that it will strike Miami, but going through the straights or the keys is VERY possible here,

[jusforsean]

Let's see what the A.M. brings us

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

call me crazy, but I think that NHC put the line over cuba just because of the wobble that he did tonight. I personally think that the high will make chris move more northwest than west. No I do not think that it will strike Miami, but going through the straights or the keys is VERY possible here,

Why did you quote yourself? Just wondering..

My personal opinion is that it will go slightly north of the forecast track. Probably interacting with Cuba, but not as much as is currently forecast.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Is it just me or is Chris moving nearly due south right now???

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

what would happen if it dipped due south into the Caribbean and then went up and under Cuba like Ivan, Charley, Wilma, etc. did???

[Stratosphere747]

It may be decoupling like mentioned.

Don't track the convection. The LLC may be moving away from it.

[jhamps10]

call me crazy, but I think that NHC put the line over cuba just because of the wobble that he did tonight. I personally think that the high will make chris move more northwest than west. No I do not think that it will strike Miami, but going through the straights or the keys is VERY possible here,

Why did you quote yourself? Just wondering..

My personal opinion is that it will go slightly north of the forecast track. Probably interacting with Cuba, but not as much as is currently forecast.

I meant to do an edit, and instead did a quote...

[HouTXmetro]

Is it just me or is Chris moving nearly due south right now???

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

no it sure does look that way.... WOW

[JonathanBelles]

Is it just me or is Chris moving nearly due south right now???

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

i think you might be right

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

call me crazy, but I think that NHC put the line over cuba just because of the wobble that he did tonight. I personally think that the high will make chris move more northwest than west. No I do not think that it will strike Miami, but going through the straights or the keys is VERY possible here,

Why did you quote yourself? Just wondering..

My personal opinion is that it will go slightly north of the forecast track. Probably interacting with Cuba, but not as much as is currently forecast.

I meant to do an edit, and instead did a quote...

Ah okay. Haha.

[MississippiHurricane]

I say the further south it moves, the less of a chance that it hits the us and more of Mexico

[jhamps10]

yeah it looks like it is...

[JonathanBelles]

will the recon be available for the 2 am advisory?

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like he can't resist the Puerto Rican women...

[jasons2k]

Is it just me or is Chris moving nearly due south right now???

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

no it sure does look that way.... WOW

On radar it looks like it is making a beeline towards Puerto Rico. I've noticed this all night but didn't say anything for fear of it being labeled a wobble....but the trend just hasn't changed IMO.

G'nite all......we'll see what tomorrow holds. I hope Luis and our friends in PR are watching this closely.