Tropical Storm Chris

[btangy]

PS: From a scientific standpoint...in a way we are very lucky this is all happening within the constant monitoring of a land-based radar site. Visuilizing the MLC sitting in the SE quad of the LLC is much easier...and may yield some very valuable and rare scientific data when this is all over.

This is really a unique and fascinating deal.

MW

I agree. There have been lots of modelling studies investigating vertical decoupling of tropical cyclones due to vertical wind shear (Sarah Jones, e.g.). This could provide some very valuable observational verification for those numerical studies.

[MWatkins]

The best chance Chris has for surviving is redeveloping a LLC under the existing MLC once it gets decoupled...which is probably going to happen over night.

The degree of separation of the low level center and the mid level center is a really striking and clean example of vertical decoupling. Given the amount of separation, I agree that this is the only way Chris can survive. However, given the proximity to Puerto Rico, one has to wonder if the interaction of the circulation with land will prevent a coherent low level center from forming. Additionally if convection begins to fade away, both circulations will simply begin to decay. We'll probably know after the diurnal max.

Yep...Chris is getting a haircut.

This is probably the same deal that happened to Debby in 2000...but our satellites weren't as good back then. Excellent point about the land mass interfering with the reorganization.

Just looking at the SJU radar it looks like the MLC is sustaining itself on the SE edge of the LLC...so Chris getting some convergence help there as the MLC looks to be much smaller. But it can't last for very long like that.

MW

mike I also checked pressures in the northern islands and they are very high. So it looks like there is nothing going on at the surface under that convection canopy. anyway, recon will be leaving shortly to tell us what we already know.

Thanks for the info and the nice words Mobile...

Yep recon should be able to fill one of the puzzle pieces in. Some people like experiencing hurricanes...some like tracking them. Me...I like the detective work with a situation like this.

Now...if we can only keep most of the heavy rain away from Puerto Rico...

MW

[MWatkins]

Mike Watkins, Im a resident of Puerto Rico...Here almost everybody in the island got asleep thinking that the system has just passed us. How do you see this tropical storm and Puerto Rico?

The main concern I think will be torrential rains if the center of this system gets much closer to your island. I am not overly concerned about this becomming a hurricane...although stronger winds will occur at higher elevations.

The concern here...I think...is for flash flooding if more of the system gets over the island than is currently forecast.

I know you are used to dealing with this sort of situation...no place is as tropical cyclone savvy as PR...but please take care if this does shift southward.

MW

[mobilebay]

925
SXXX50 KNHC 030511
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 03 KNHC
0459. 1740N 06441W 01491 0117 196 019 160 128 019 01641 0000000000
0500 1740N 06439W 01491 0117 194 018 162 128 019 01641 0000000000
0500. 1740N 06437W 01495 0117 187 018 160 146 019 01645 0000000000
0501 1740N 06435W 01487 0115 192 018 160 134 018 01635 0000000000
0501. 1740N 06433W 01489 0115 189 017 160 128 018 01637 0000000000
0502 1740N 06431W 01493 0116 189 017 156 138 018 01642 0000000000
0502. 1740N 06430W 01493 0117 188 018 156 134 019 01643 0000000000
0503 1740N 06428W 01489 0117 187 018 160 130 018 01640 0000000000
0503. 1740N 06425W 01489 0118 184 017 166 116 017 01641 0000000000
0504 1741N 06424W 01490 0119 178 016 164 120 017 01642 0000000000
0504. 1742N 06423W 01498 0118 170 018 162 118 018 01649 0000000000
0505 1744N 06423W 01482 0118 165 018 160 140 018 01633 0000000000
0505. 1746N 06422W 01489 0115 166 016 160 148 017 01637 0000000000
0506 1748N 06421W 01490 0115 172 016 164 114 017 01638 0000000000
0506. 1749N 06421W 01491 0115 174 015 166 110 016 01639 0000000000
0507 1751N 06420W 01492 0115 174 015 166 114 016 01639 0000000000
0507. 1753N 06420W 01491 0114 172 017 162 118 017 01639 0000000000
0508 1754N 06419W 01490 0111 176 018 162 162 018 01635 0000000000
0508. 1756N 06418W 01492 0111 175 016 164 164 017 01636 0000000100
0509 1758N 06418W 01491 0109 178 017 160 160 017 01633 0000000100
;

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Mike Watkins, Im a resident of Puerto Rico...Here almost everybody in the island got asleep thinking that the system has just passed us. How do you see this tropical storm and Puerto Rico?

The main concern I think will be torrential rains if the center of this system gets much closer to your island. I am not overly concerned about this becomming a hurricane...although stronger winds will occur at higher elevations.

The concern here...I think...is for flash flooding if more of the system gets over the island than is currently forecast.

I know you are used to dealing with this sort of situation...no place is as tropical cyclone savvy as PR...but please take care if this does shift southward.

MW

Thanks for that Mike! The information from the RECON will be Crucial!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I will say they will find 1010 milibars with 48 knot peak winds.

[Grease Monkey]

*"On Our Own" by Bobby Brown song starts playing*

"Yeah
You want somethin' done?
You gotta do it yourself
Well I guess we're gonna have to take control
If it's up to us, we've got to take it home
Gotta, gotta, take it home, gotta, gotta, gotta take it home"

http://www.amazon.com/gp/music/clipserv ... 33-8047826

[curtadams]

The shear does not look strong enough to decouple the LLC and the MLC. Alberto and Daniel both stayed intact under stronger shear, even though the centers were exposed. When shear is strong enough to actually decouple the center (which happened to both of those) it looks very violent. The shear maps are showing less than 20 knots, which is also not enough - seems to take at least 25-30. Behind Chris is a hypothetically strong enough area but I think it's being enhanced by Chris' own shear, so that "real" shear will also be inadequate. Once the shear stabilizes the relative distance between the MLC and the LLC will also.

The shearing will pull Chris toward the MLC, which will move it south and slow it. I guess this is what the GFDL saw this when it predicted the southwest turn but since it's late I think Chris will hit the Dominican Republic now.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Let's just wait and see how Chris does over the next 12-18 hours. It still has a chance!

[mobilebay]

LLC appears to be near 21N, and 66W. Based on IR2 satellite.

[mobilebay]

606
SXXX50 KNHC 030521
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 04 KNHC
0509. 1759N 06417W 01491 0110 174 017 160 160 018 01635 0000000100
0510 1801N 06416W 01491 0114 184 016 158 158 017 01638 0000000100
0510. 1803N 06416W 01490 0115 181 016 160 160 016 01639 0000000100
0511 1805N 06415W 01497 0118 176 016 158 136 016 01648 0000000000
0511. 1806N 06415W 01529 0120 183 016 156 128 018 01682 0000000000
0512 1808N 06414W 01522 0118 183 018 158 122 019 01674 0000000000
0512. 1810N 06413W 01523 0115 185 020 164 100 021 01672 0000000000
0513 1811N 06413W 01524 0115 188 022 166 106 023 01672 0000000000
0513. 1813N 06413W 01524 0117 188 022 160 122 023 01674 0000000000
0514 1815N 06413W 01525 0119 184 017 146 144 018 01676 0000000000
0514. 1817N 06412W 01524 0118 163 017 154 132 018 01675 0000000000
0515 1818N 06411W 01525 0116 189 018 154 128 019 01674 0000000000
0515. 1820N 06410W 01524 0115 200 019 158 122 019 01671 0000000000
0516 1821N 06409W 01523 0115 200 016 158 120 017 01671 0000000000
0516. 1822N 06408W 01527 0113 199 019 158 140 021 01674 0000000000
0517 1824N 06407W 01524 0114 197 022 152 140 023 01671 0000000000
0517. 1825N 06405W 01526 0116 206 020 144 144 023 01675 0000000000
0518 1827N 06405W 01522 0115 206 021 152 140 022 01670 0000000000
0518. 1828N 06406W 01524 0117 195 016 154 132 017 01674 0000000000
0519 1830N 06408W 01525 0117 195 014 150 144 015 01675 0000000000
;

[btangy]

The shear maps are showing less than 20 knots

I'm assuming you're referring to the CIMSS product which is a product based on cloud track winds between the upper levels and lower levels. However, this is a bit misleading at the moment because there is a large amount of shear, but it is between the lower levels and mid levels. The 00Z San Juan sounding shows this nicely, though one must be mindful of the contamination of the winds by Chris itself in the sounding.

[mobilebay]

780
URNT11 KNHC 030522
97779 05174 50185 64118 15200 20021 15148 /2569
RMK AF300 0503A CHRIS OB 01
;

[ericinmia]

I'm going to need a truck of crow for this one. Either for myself, or to be able to hand out in rations.

I don't have the time to pull up past examples, but i believe from modeling synoptics of the direction that the LLC is moving... wnw that later today a new CDO is going to begin to blow up around it.

Like a hot cheese pizza... the CDO of Chris slid straight off. There is a possibility that this mass of storms forms another LLC and something in the eastern carrib. BUT i find that less likely.

The LLC is still WELL intact based on our limited visual inspection. That engine is going to pump out a new CDO... possibly this one will stick around this time.

I better get ready to cook up my crow

Edit: Fixed a stupid spelling mistake

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

The RECON is also going to fly where the MLC and thunderstorms are located right?

[mobilebay]

The RECON is also going to fly where the MLC and thunderstorms are located right?

they are just about to enter that convection canopy.

[Andrew92]

Where's a normal storm when you need one?

-Andrew92

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

The RECON is also going to fly where the MLC and thunderstorms are located right?

they are just about to enter that convection canopy.

I really wanna know if they found a new LLC near the area of thunderstorms. In that case, us in Puerto Rico have less than 12 hours until its landfall!

[mobilebay]

965
SXXX50 KNHC 030531
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 05 KNHC
0519. 1831N 06409W 01524 0115 193 015 150 150 016 01671 0000000000
0520 1832N 06410W 01525 0115 187 016 150 150 016 01673 0000000000
0520. 1833N 06411W 01523 0113 182 018 150 150 018 01669 0000000000
0521 1835N 06412W 01525 0113 186 018 146 146 019 01671 0000000000
0521. 1836N 06414W 01523 0112 197 016 148 148 018 01668 0000000000
0522 1837N 06415W 01526 0112 201 019 156 122 021 01671 0000000000
0522. 1839N 06416W 01522 0111 194 019 154 132 020 01665 0000000000
0523 1840N 06417W 01525 0108 191 024 148 136 025 01666 0000000000
0523. 1841N 06418W 01523 0106 190 025 146 122 025 01662 0000000000
0524 1843N 06420W 01527 0104 189 027 146 128 028 01663 0000000000
0524. 1844N 06421W 01521 0096 191 028 146 122 029 01650 0000000000
0525 1845N 06422W 01525 0105 194 031 148 116 031 01663 0000000000
0525. 1847N 06423W 01524 0106 191 030 146 132 030 01663 0000000000
0526 1848N 06425W 01524 0106 196 029 150 130 030 01663 0000000000
0526. 1849N 06426W 01523 0105 199 030 148 134 030 01662 0000000000
0527 1850N 06428W 01525 0105 193 031 150 142 032 01663 0000000000
0527. 1851N 06429W 01525 0105 190 036 146 122 037 01663 0000000000
0528 1852N 06430W 01522 0105 189 038 154 094 038 01660 0000000000
0528. 1854N 06432W 01525 0105 195 033 156 110 036 01662 0000000000
0529 1855N 06433W 01524 0103 194 031 154 122 032 01659 0000000000
;

[mobilebay]

0528 1852N 06430W 01522 0105 189 038 154 094 038 01660 0000000000

38 Knots so far. They are in the convection.