Tropical Storm Chris

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cheezyWXguy
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#3181 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:59 am

I just noticed that too...I still think theres an oppurtunity for restrengthening over the next 12 hours
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#3182 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:59 am

HouTXmetro wrote:convection on the SE side is showing signs of life...
yes, I noticed that too. The question now is...can it be pulled in closer to the center?

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#3183 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Aug 03, 2006 10:00 am

ther eis very strong NE shear over it now

I do not forsee much regeneration until this moves into the GOM, where conditions are probably going to be more favorable
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#3184 Postby Scorpion » Thu Aug 03, 2006 10:01 am

Derek, how much shear do you estimate is over it?
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#3185 Postby Damar91 » Thu Aug 03, 2006 10:01 am

I'm sorry guys, but something just keeps telling me we haven't seen the last of Chris. Ready to eat crow when I'm wrong.
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#3186 Postby westmoon » Thu Aug 03, 2006 10:02 am

He sure looks to be trying to pull it in closer to the center, this is starting to look like the little engine than could
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#3187 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Aug 03, 2006 10:03 am

Damar91 wrote:I'm sorry guys, but something just keeps telling me we haven't seen the last of Chris. Ready to eat crow when I'm wrong.
same here. I'm getting a funny feeling about this one. Seems like when everyone starts saying "storm over" an even more organized system forms within 48 hours. I have a feeling that Chris could show his true colors once in the GOM.
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#3188 Postby miamicanes177 » Thu Aug 03, 2006 10:12 am

12Z NAM maintains Chris into the GOM and it bring him north of Cuba according to the Model. It heads just south of the Keys and seems to pick up intensity once in the GOM.
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#3189 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Aug 03, 2006 10:16 am

For now I am going to consider Chris a TD and I expect him to remain a TD or a wave as he moves along. However, just like with any other TD or wave, I expect there to be a decent chance of further development once in the GOM. Since I live in TX and whether or not this re-strengthens I will likely be affected in some way, I am not in any way going to let my guard down just yet. Warm SSTs, less dry air, and less shear will all help this if it can get through the FL straits and avoid land interaction.
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#3190 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Aug 03, 2006 10:17 am

it looks like about 40KT judging on how fast the clouds are moving to the SW
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#3191 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 03, 2006 10:22 am

Even if Chris makes it into the Gulf as a moderate tropical wave, we'll still have to monitor it for potential development. Chances are probably a good bit better of Chris redevleoping than of me winning the lottery, I'll concede. ;-)

But chances of Chris becoming a hurricane now appear remote.
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#3192 Postby Noles2006 » Thu Aug 03, 2006 10:25 am

In the past, I probably would have been bummed that Chris weakened like this. BUT, after last year [Dennis for me, personally, and Katrina, Rita and Wilma for everyone else], I breathed a sigh of relief to see not much more than a naked swirl when I woke up this morning. Besides... I don't need gas prices to go much higher than they already are!
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#3193 Postby westmoon » Thu Aug 03, 2006 10:25 am

119 days left still before it's over for another year!
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#3194 Postby HurricaneJim » Thu Aug 03, 2006 10:27 am

Wow...what a blowout. Those SAT pictures this am of it coming uncoupled from it's LLCC were really interesting. Can't remember when I've seen that before.

There might be the outside chance of reformation and redemption, as it were, but I doubt it.

Oh well, wasn't looking forward to a drive to TX.

Jim
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http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers
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#3195 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Thu Aug 03, 2006 10:32 am

It's history in my opinion. I could be wrong but they hardly ever come back after looking like this. The ULL late yesterday and last night kicked it's tail.
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#3196 Postby Johnny » Thu Aug 03, 2006 10:41 am

My opinion (which isn't worth much) is that Chris has another trick or two up his sleeve. No, I don't think he will become a major hurricane but a tropical storm or minimal hurricane is still a possibilty IF it makes it into the gulf. Ok, I'm fixing to head off to Galveston to tear into some speckled trout and redfish (a picture of me from early June) and trust me, Chris will not be on my mind....my mind is switched over to fishing mode! :cheesy:

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Last edited by Johnny on Thu Aug 03, 2006 10:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#3197 Postby Frank P » Thu Aug 03, 2006 10:41 am

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:It's history in my opinion. I could be wrong but they hardly ever come back after looking like this. The ULL late yesterday and last night kicked it's tail.


I hope you're right and the shear continues to kick their butts for the rest of the season... I can't recall any coming back from this level of butt whipping... Isidore back in 2002 looked very similar.... pounded the Yutacan with 110K winds and then went inland for about 24-36 hours before drifting back into the GOM... stuck the NGOM SE LA and MS with about 55 mph winds but very little convection.... she did bring in with it about a 8.5 foot storm surge in Biloxi... which was quite unexpected... this was probably because of its large wind field of TS force winds...
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#3198 Postby jasons2k » Thu Aug 03, 2006 10:47 am

I'm quite busy today so rather than creating a new post, I'm just going to paste the update I emailed out to friends/family:

I've had very little time to look at TS Chris this morning, but here is a summary based on a quick glance:

Current Synopsis:
Yesterday, Chris had a blowup of convection (storms) near the center and it appeared the storm was really going to ramp-up. However, as pointed out on Tuesday (included below) Chris has been fighting shear from two upper-level lows to its north. Beginning last night, Chris was nudged into an unfavorable position relative to the Upper Lows and the shear basically ripped the storm in half. This morning Chris is little more than a naked swirl (devoid of convection) on the satellite loops. It is barely a Tropical Storm with 40 mph winds right now and unless new convection can develop, the storm will be downgraded to a depression shortly. Right now one of the Upper Lows which had stalled is finally moving again. There is a very fine line between the shear suppressing all convection, essentially killing it, and ventilating the system which would allow for new development.

Future Impacts:
The big question right now is what happens next? Frankly, nobody knows. It could go either way. If the ULL to its west can keep moving, Chris might have a chance to regenerate. Otherwise Chris will continue to fall apart and we'll be left with an open wave.

Because of this uncertainty, the NHC has kept Chris as a 35mph Depression through the entire 120-hour forecast. In reality, the storm will not maintain that intensity for the entire 120hrs - it's mostly to keep continuity of the forecast track and as insurance in case he tries to spin-up again. The overall track forecast remains the same - going through the Florida Straits or skirting Cuba and then into the Gulf. IF Chris does reach the Gulf, it will be steered to the WNW around the periphery of the Bermuda High, making it most likely a TX or Mexico threat.

As stated on Tuesday "Chris could very well be a system that does little for the next few days but intensifies when/if it reaches the Gulf." This reasoning hasn't changed. Yesterday was more an anomoly as opposed to what happened overnight. The remains of Chris are still expected to move into the Gulf early next week where conditions for development are much more favorable. Whether or not there will be anything left to develop at all, of course, remains to be seen.
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#3199 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Aug 03, 2006 10:56 am

wow i didnt expect it to be 40 mph. are dry swirls gonna rule the tropics this year?
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#3200 Postby Andrew92 » Thu Aug 03, 2006 10:57 am

fact789 wrote:wow i didnt expect it to be 40 mph. are dry swirls gonna rule the tropics this year?


I doubt it, it's still early in the season. I don't see Chris re-generating in the future, but I don't see this being a trend for the whole season.

-Andrew92
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