Tropical Storm Chris

[Scorpion]

wow i didnt expect it to be 40 mph. are dry swirls gonna rule the tropics this year?

It's extremely early August. Conditions will get better soon.

[chris_fit]

So it appears gfdl didn't do as good of a job as I thought last nite. Looking at it now, the UKMET appears to be the winner with keeping it a little bit north and dissipating it...

[Stormcenter]

All I can say is WOW what happened?!?!?!?
As some have noted already several models did predict
something like this happening. Oh well, I can't say I'm
not happy about it.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[NONAME]

This reminds me of irene last year.

[Johnny]

jschlitz, my thoughts exactly. I would of been a little more detailed on my post but I'm currently a little busy making up leaders and organizing my fishing lures before I head out.lol Seriously, I agree with your post 100%...excellent write up.

[jasons2k]

Thx Johnny

[canes04]

Chris has had a rough 18 hrs and I'm kinda surprised so
many people are throwing in the towel.
If he can hang on for 24hrs I think he has a shot to
to make a comeback and be a threat to Fla and the Gulf coast.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Typical NHC, still calling it a TS with nothing there but a swirl.

[f5]

maybe he can do a Katrina and come back

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Good luck!

[Extremeweatherguy]

maybe he can do a Katrina and come back

if the ships model is right, then yeah it could. Currently the ships model has this as a 74mph Cat. 1 in 5 days.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 031650
AF308 0603A CHRIS HDOB 03 KNHC
1639 1742N 06449W 00000 0001 360 000 284 250 000 00000 0000000000
1639. 1742N 06449W 00000 0001 360 000 276 246 000 00000 0000000000
1640 1742N 06449W 00000 0000 360 000 280 246 000 00000 0000000000
1640. 1742N 06449W 00000 0001 360 000 278 242 000 00000 0000000000
1641 1742N 06449W 00000 0001 107 003 270 250 009 00000 0000000000
1641. 1742N 06448W 00029 0006 102 013 262 248 018 00046 0000000000
1642 1742N 06447W 00192 0033 103 013 242 242 013 00237 0000110010
1642. 1741N 06446W 00364 0043 104 013 236 218 014 00423 0000000000
1643 1739N 06447W 00631 0059 104 015 222 192 017 00714 0000000000
1643. 1738N 06449W 00958 0086 111 016 198 186 017 01068 0000000000
1644 1739N 06451W 01249 0094 111 015 178 164 016 01384 0000000000
1644. 1740N 06452W 01594 0111 133 013 160 144 014 01747 0000000000
1645 1741N 06453W 01767 0118 142 012 148 128 013 01927 0000000000
1645. 1743N 06455W 01786 0122 142 010 144 138 010 01949 0000000000
1646 1744N 06456W 01800 0125 130 010 142 142 010 01967 0000000100
1646. 1746N 06458W 01812 0125 138 011 140 140 011 01979 0000000100
1647 1748N 06500W 01805 0126 133 010 140 140 011 01973 0000000100
1647. 1749N 06501W 01802 0128 146 011 142 142 012 01971 0000000000
1648 1751N 06503W 01801 0128 153 009 146 114 010 01971 0000000000
1648. 1753N 06505W 01800 0127 153 009 146 114 010 01970 0000000000

They have departed from St. Croix.

[jhamps10]

yeah a cat 1 in 5 days, with STILL plenty of warm, favorible GOM waters ahead of it

[f5]

nobody expect Katrina at this stage to become a disasterous CAT 5

[StormsAhead]

[whereverwx]

I bet he could come back, but it seems unlikely. I remember (hey it's) Franklin was exposed at one point and regenerated and almost became a hurricane.
(31.5 hour loop)

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 031702
AF308 0603A CHRIS HDOB 04 KNHC
1649 1754N 06506W 01802 0127 158 010 146 120 011 01971 0000000000
1649. 1756N 06508W 01801 0128 158 010 146 122 011 01971 0000000000
1650 1758N 06510W 01798 0128 158 010 146 120 011 01968 0000000000
1650. 1759N 06512W 01804 0128 160 011 142 122 011 01974 0000000000
1651 1801N 06513W 01799 0127 161 011 140 128 012 01968 0000000000
1651. 1803N 06515W 01800 0126 166 010 142 122 011 01968 0000000000
1652 1805N 06517W 01804 0126 163 011 138 134 012 01971 0000000000
1652. 1806N 06518W 01801 0125 164 014 134 134 015 01968 0000000000
1653 1808N 06520W 01800 0106 174 018 114 114 020 01948 0000000000
1653. 1810N 06522W 01788 0122 148 012 114 114 016 01951 0000000000
1654 1811N 06523W 01789 0121 230 006 122 122 012 01951 0000000000
1654. 1812N 06525W 01803 0121 198 012 140 124 013 01965 0000000000
1655 1814N 06526W 01802 0121 184 014 138 118 014 01964 0000000000
1655. 1815N 06527W 01801 0121 177 014 140 126 014 01963 0000000000
1656 1816N 06528W 01801 0122 172 013 138 138 013 01965 0000000100
1656. 1817N 06530W 01801 0121 172 014 140 140 014 01964 0000000100
1657 1819N 06531W 01798 0121 178 013 140 140 014 01961 0000000100
1657. 1820N 06532W 01802 0121 178 014 140 140 015 01964 0000000000
1658 1821N 06534W 01794 0120 179 016 140 112 016 01956 0000000000
1658. 1822N 06535W 01779 0119 175 016 140 116 017 01940 0000000000

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

those upper LLs the the NE of Chris are racing towards him like blood thirsty devil hounds. Mother Nature is really on our side this year. I guess she feels bad after wht happened last year.

[StormsAhead]

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

those upper LLs the the NE of Chris are racing towards him like blood thirsty devil hounds. Mother Nature is really on our side this year. I guess she feels bad after wht happened last year.

the upper LL to his west also seems to now be moving NW. I think the combination could help speed up Chris toward a more favorable environment sooner as the upper LLs behind Chris should help push Chris away.