Tropical Storm Chris

[StormsAhead]

[WindRunner]

Here's one of the missing sets.


EDIT: and the second one

EDIT2: you got them. NM.

[senorpepr]

Carry on the recon discussion here...

[stormtruth]

Do the winds show Chris is still a TS or a TD? I saw a 38 flight level wind recorded.

[WindRunner]

That's technically still a TD, but they've barely started sampling.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 031740
AF308 0603A CHRIS HDOB 08 KNHC
1729 1931N 06646W 00365 0043 185 019 214 212 021 00419 0000000000
1729. 1932N 06647W 00368 0044 182 023 216 204 025 00423 0000000000
1730 1933N 06648W 00356 0042 187 028 224 182 031 00410 0000000000
1730. 1935N 06649W 00343 0040 188 031 228 182 032 00395 0000000000
1731 1936N 06650W 00342 0038 194 034 226 184 034 00391 0000000000
1731. 1937N 06652W 00363 0038 191 034 220 188 036 00412 0000000000
1732 1938N 06653W 00363 0037 192 036 220 188 037 00412 0000000000
1732. 1939N 06654W 00364 0037 190 033 214 206 033 00412 0000000000
1733 1940N 06656W 00376 0037 185 035 216 198 036 00424 0000000000
1733. 1941N 06657W 00369 0036 186 036 212 206 037 00417 0000000000
1734 1942N 06658W 00377 0036 187 034 210 210 035 00424 0000000000
1734. 1944N 06659W 00366 0035 186 032 210 210 033 00413 0000000000
1735 1945N 06701W 00368 0035 186 033 210 210 033 00414 0000000000
1735. 1946N 06702W 00366 0035 189 032 212 212 034 00412 0000000000
1736 1947N 06703W 00362 0033 189 030 216 216 031 00407 0000000000
1736. 1949N 06704W 00362 0033 189 032 220 214 032 00406 0000000000
1737 1950N 06706W 00360 0033 189 033 216 214 033 00405 0000000000
1737. 1951N 06707W 00373 0034 188 031 212 212 032 00418 0000000000
1738 1952N 06708W 00343 0032 185 031 212 212 031 00386 0000000000
1738. 1954N 06710W 00259 0026 181 029 220 220 030 00296 0000000000

[senorpepr]

Just a reminder... keep the discussion in the discussion thread...

[HouTXmetro]

I see Chris is still scheduled to slam into Cuba.

[dwg71]

38KT FL winds is about 35MPH and that was recorded in the deepest convection well removed from the center. It has weakened to 30KTS

[Extremeweatherguy]

They called this a 40mph TS earlier based on a 38 knot FL wind.

[cheezyWXguy]

thats about what it was before but the NHC didnt want to call it for sure

[cycloneye]

236
WTNT33 KNHC 031739
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
200 PM AST THU AUG 03 2006

...CHRIS LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.7 WEST OR ABOUT 225
MILES...365 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO CHRIS AND WILL REACH THE SYSTEM SOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND
NORTHERN HAITI THROUGH FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...20.7 N...67.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/FRANKLIN

[WindRunner]

Discussion thread please . . .

[storms in NC]

It seem to be moving more North now. Still WNW but a little more north. If it is there is no hope for chris. The dry air is just to much. It was just north of the track. Not much.

[Andrew92]

Really? What a pathetic "TS." Oh well, I say depression at 5.

[StormsAhead]

[dwg71]

If they had recon data they would have downgraded, they are just being cautious.

[Derek Ortt]

The flight appears to be at 1500 feet, meaning a .75 reduction factor is used

[KWT]

Yeah its pretty much a TD in al lbut name right now with recon having only found 38kts in the deepest convection it should get downgraded unless there is some more sizeable convective burst sover the next few hours nearer the center.

[dwg71]

The flight appears to be at 1500 feet, meaning a .75 reduction factor is used

38KTs = 30KTS at surface. Depression. If no change in overall structure, convection, or recon data, chris will be downgraded at 4PM update.