Tropical Storm Chris

[Vandymit]

Still hangin on

I bet if planes sampled every low in the Atlantic they would find winds like these. This is just a reminant low. Sorry.

actually, no, this is called a tropical storm. Refer to the NHC 2pm advisory for details.

I am refering to the recent plane reports sampled AFTER the 2 PM NHC advisory. We'll see at the 5 PM advisory.

[StormsAhead]

That's the ocean estimate. NEVER use that.

I don't see why this isn't used being as these are trained people that make the estimates and they have flown into many storms in the past, but either way they are still saying 39-40mph winds based off of official measurements...still a TS.

There were no measurements that supported a TS. Highest FL wind so far was 38 knots, which is only about 33 mph at the surface.

[Derek Ortt]

the convection is already being sheared off, which is expected when you have 40KT of shear

[cycloneye]

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 031832
AF308 0603A CHRIS HDOB 13 KNHC
1819 2127N 06836W 00342 0034 053 026 230 230 026 00388 0000000000
1819. 2129N 06837W 00345 0034 055 025 230 230 026 00391 0000000000
1820 2130N 06839W 00343 0035 057 025 230 224 026 00389 0000000000
1820. 2131N 06840W 00341 0036 054 026 228 228 027 00388 0000000000
1821 2132N 06841W 00345 0036 055 026 228 226 026 00393 0000000000
1821. 2133N 06842W 00342 0037 053 026 230 226 027 00390 0000000000
1822 2134N 06843W 00343 0038 048 028 230 228 029 00392 0000000000
1822. 2135N 06845W 00344 0038 047 028 230 230 028 00394 0000000000
1823 2136N 06846W 00344 0038 051 027 230 230 028 00394 0000000000
1823. 2137N 06847W 00343 0039 051 027 228 228 029 00394 0000000000
1824 2138N 06848W 00342 0039 048 029 230 230 029 00392 0000000000
1824. 2139N 06850W 00343 0040 047 028 230 230 028 00394 0000000000
1825 2140N 06851W 00343 0034 047 027 230 228 028 00395 0000000000
1825. 2142N 06852W 00345 0040 049 027 230 230 028 00396 0000000000
1826 2143N 06853W 00343 0040 051 028 230 230 029 00395 0000000000
1826. 2144N 06854W 00343 0041 054 028 232 222 028 00395 0000000000
1827 2145N 06856W 00343 0041 054 029 232 220 030 00396 0000000000
1827. 2146N 06857W 00344 0041 055 030 230 226 030 00397 0000000000
1828 2147N 06858W 00343 0042 056 032 230 222 033 00396 0000000000
1828. 2148N 06859W 00343 0042 055 033 234 214 033 00396 0000000000

[Grease Monkey]

the convection is already being sheared off, which is expected when you have 40KT of shear

I don't know where your seeing that. It looks pretty much the same to me.

[Vandymit]

There were no measurements that supported a TS. Highest FL wind so far was 38 knots, which is only about 33 mph at the surface

My point exactly. . .

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That convection is already getting sheared. The tutt is moving with it and the area of faverable shear is at least 8 degrees west. I hate to say it but this might be goodbye for my friend Chris. The 2002 like tutt...In I say that is because that was the last year that had a tutt of this power. Lets look for Debby in which will have to fight the SAL/Dry air over the eastern Atlantic. It would be something if Chris reformed later on...Like Bonnie or Helen its possible they where only waves...We need to watch this down the road.

[StormsAhead]

[WindRunner]

Here you can see the 17:30Z sat image with the 18:30Z radar. Upon the appearance of that blow-up on the sat image, the radar was showing some orange-colored returns (about 50dBZ). Current returns on this puff (which is the green-colored blob to the west of the puff on sat) are less than 30dBZ. I wouldn't at all be suprised to see this not be visible on the next image. And I have a feeling that this is a process that may repeat itself several times over throughout the next few hours.

['CaneFreak]

the convection is already being sheared off, which is expected when you have 40KT of shear

Link please....thanks.....

[x-y-no]

the convection is already being sheared off, which is expected when you have 40KT of shear

Are you confident of that 40kt figure? CIMSS shows about 20 knots.

[StormsAhead]

URNT11 KNHC 031834
97779 18284 50218 69000 03400 06025 22228 /0016
40325
RMK AF308 0603A CHRIS OB 03

Surface: wind NNE at 25 knots; 1016mb

[Vandymit]

I don't know where your seeing that. It looks pretty much the same to me.

Look at any IR Sat Picture. . .It's clear as a bell.

[Derek Ortt]

the images I use are from GARP, which is not an internet based program.

Contact Unidata if you are interested in this program

[Extremeweatherguy]

There were no measurements that supported a TS. Highest FL wind so far was 38 knots, which is only about 33 mph at the surface

My point exactly. . .

this morning when they flew in they called it a TS based on 38 knot FL winds. Then, when they just recently flew in, they found 38 knot FL winds and using a 90% reduction (that is what they said they used) they found 39-40mph surface winds.

[wxmann_91]

The Internet's been down since 2:30 yesterday and now I return to this? Ah, figures. Thank goodness for that TUTT.

Funny thing is that the Globals were right, and we all doubted them.

[Derek Ortt]

I think their 40KT contour is a little too far to the north from 15Z, and has advanced SW since then. Definately looks to be impinging upon the storm.

As an aside, this storm is driving me nuts in the hurricane futures market, as it is not far from the GOM zone...

[Extremeweatherguy]

the convection is already being sheared off, which is expected when you have 40KT of shear

Are you confident of that 40kt figure? CIMSS shows about 20 knots.

yeah, and the NHC hasn't said 40 knots either. I doubt it is that strong over the center of the system.

[Vandymit]

the images I use are from GARP, which is not an internet based program.

Contact Unidata if you are interested in this program

Derek, I'll let you be the PROFESSIONAL MET here and trust your education and experience. If you see 40KT shear, that's good enough for me.