Tropical Storm Chris

[dwg71]

39kt FL winds now recorded from Chris.

That's 30KT at the surface - Depression.

[Scorpion]

If any mets could reply it would be great. What is up with these conditions? I mean we have a huge TUTT digging down and then a massive ULL off Florida. Is this abnormal for this time of the year or what?

[chris_fit]

He is looking to be trying to wrap something around that center in the latest visible

[N2DaTropics]

39kt FL winds now recorded from Chris.

That's 30KT at the surface - Depression.

Yeah, but it's a strong depression..

[Derek Ortt]

that's all low cloud

cloud top temps are above freezing, suggesting no clouds above about 3-4km

[Swimdude]

39 knots at flight-level! Chris is strengthening!

This is in the SE quad.

I thought they were doing a SW-NE pass?

[StormsAhead]

39 knots at flight-level! Chris is strengthening!

This is in the SE quad.

I thought they were doing a SW-NE pass?

They decided to turn to the SE right after they hit the center, most likely to sample some of the "convection" to the east of the center before the 5PM advisory.

[IsaacRules06]

we must give the GFDL its due props....this is the second time it has been pretty sweet at calling storms in this general quadrant

remember with Katrina, it was the only model calling for the SW dip across Miami, when other models were no where near this solution

[MississippiHurricane]

Lets give him some prozac (spelling) and a coke!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Just look at water vapor. To much shear! HISTORY!!!

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 032022
AF308 0603A CHRIS HDOB 23 KNHC
1959 2011N 06717W 00372 0027 180 038 216 216 038 00411 0000000000
1959. 2010N 06716W 00374 0028 181 037 214 214 038 00414 0000000000
2000 2009N 06715W 00371 0029 178 036 216 214 037 00412 0000000000
2000. 2009N 06714W 00372 0030 178 036 220 206 037 00414 0000000000
2001 2008N 06713W 00374 0030 181 034 220 208 035 00416 0000000000
2001. 2007N 06712W 00372 0031 182 035 220 202 036 00414 0000000000
2002 2006N 06711W 00372 0032 179 033 220 206 033 00415 0000000000
2002. 2005N 06710W 00372 0032 177 033 218 210 034 00416 0000000000
2003 2004N 06709W 00373 0033 172 031 214 214 031 00418 0000000000
2003. 2003N 06708W 00370 0034 171 033 214 214 035 00416 0000000000
2004 2002N 06707W 00373 0035 171 033 214 210 034 00419 0000000000
2004. 2001N 06706W 00372 0036 169 033 216 208 035 00419 0000000000
2005 2000N 06705W 00373 0036 166 029 212 212 030 00421 0000000000
2005. 1959N 06704W 00372 0037 165 026 210 210 027 00420 0000000000
2006 1958N 06703W 00372 0037 167 028 214 214 028 00420 0000000000
2006. 1957N 06702W 00373 0036 170 028 218 202 029 00421 0000000000
2007 1956N 06701W 00372 0036 171 030 222 196 031 00420 0000000000
2007. 1955N 06700W 00371 0037 165 030 224 190 030 00419 0000000000
2008 1954N 06659W 00372 0036 163 027 218 200 028 00420 0000000000
2008. 1953N 06658W 00373 0036 165 024 216 210 025 00421 0000000000
;

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 032026
AF308 0603A CHRIS HDOB 24 KNHC
2009 1952N 06657W 00372 0036 173 024 218 204 025 00420 0000000000
2009. 1951N 06656W 00375 0037 173 026 218 198 027 00423 0000000000
2010 1950N 06655W 00371 0037 173 028 222 190 028 00419 0000000000
2010. 1949N 06654W 00373 0037 174 026 224 186 026 00422 0000000000
2011 1948N 06653W 00372 0037 182 025 226 186 026 00421 0000000000
2011. 1947N 06652W 00374 0037 188 024 226 190 025 00422 0000000000
2012 1946N 06651W 00370 0036 181 026 218 188 027 00418 0000000000
2012. 1945N 06650W 00375 0036 190 025 228 194 025 00423 0000000000
2013 1944N 06649W 00371 0036 184 026 224 190 026 00418 0000000000
2013. 1943N 06648W 00373 0036 181 026 226 180 026 00421 0000000000
2014 1942N 06647W 00371 0037 179 026 222 170 026 00419 0000000000
2014. 1941N 06646W 00374 0037 180 026 226 174 026 00423 0000000000
2015 1940N 06645W 00370 0038 180 028 226 174 031 00420 0000000000
2015. 1939N 06644W 00374 0039 172 027 220 174 029 00425 0000000000
2016 1938N 06643W 00370 0039 174 025 216 178 027 00421 0000000000
2016. 1937N 06642W 00374 0040 168 021 216 180 024 00426 0000000000
2017 1935N 06641W 00371 0040 177 024 212 186 026 00422 0000000000
2017. 1934N 06640W 00374 0040 187 028 200 188 028 00426 0000000000
2018 1933N 06639W 00372 0041 185 029 202 182 030 00425 0000000000
2018. 1932N 06638W 00373 0040 181 028 212 168 030 00425 0000000000
;

[Derek Ortt]

GFDL is only partially right

The SW motion was a very poor forecast with this one. Did not catch the decoupling at all

[HouTXmetro]

Looking at the shear and it does not seem as vigorous as it was earlier to the NE.

[tailgater]

Another little flare up just to the east of the center, let's see how long this one last before being blown off.

[StormsAhead]

URNT11 KNHC 032026
97779 20214 50194 66500 03700 18020 22159 /0017
41720
RMK AF308 0603A CHRIS OB 07

SE turn point: surface wind S at 20 knots; 1017mb

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Not long!!

[HouTXmetro]

Not long!!

what are the shear forecast? Visually it appears to be somewhat lessening.

[StormsAhead]

[Derek Ortt]

This may have to get to 72W before it gets into westerly shear, albiet a bit lighter

I may get the idiot of the year award for writing in forecasts that "All signs point toward a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico"