Tropical Storm Chris

[KFDM Meteorologist]

May lessen some but i have given my opinions on this.

[dwg71]

Not long!!

what are the shear forecast? Visually it appears to be somewhat lessening.

Look at WV its not going to be a pretty environment anytime soon...

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 032031
AF308 0603A CHRIS HDOB 25 KNHC
2019 1931N 06637W 00372 0041 177 023 210 166 024 00425 0000000000
2019. 1930N 06636W 00372 0042 184 023 214 160 023 00426 0000000000
2020 1929N 06635W 00373 0044 191 025 216 154 025 00428 0000000000
2020. 1928N 06634W 00371 0044 185 026 220 146 026 00427 0000000000
2021 1927N 06633W 00373 0044 186 024 220 144 025 00428 0000000000
2021. 1926N 06632W 00373 0045 181 020 222 148 021 00430 0000000000
2022 1925N 06631W 00372 0046 180 020 226 164 021 00429 0000000000
2022. 1924N 06630W 00373 0046 180 021 222 174 021 00431 0000000000
2023 1923N 06629W 00370 0046 180 019 220 188 020 00428 0000000000
2023. 1922N 06628W 00372 0048 180 016 216 196 017 00432 0000000000
2024 1922N 06626W 00377 0049 171 016 216 196 016 00438 0000000000
2024. 1924N 06626W 00367 0047 165 016 216 194 017 00426 0000000000
2025 1925N 06627W 00375 0047 167 018 216 188 019 00433 0000000000
2025. 1927N 06627W 00372 0047 169 018 216 178 018 00430 0000000000
2026 1929N 06627W 00374 0046 173 020 220 166 020 00432 0000000000
2026. 1930N 06627W 00373 0047 173 020 220 162 020 00431 0000000000
2027 1932N 06627W 00371 0047 171 019 220 156 019 00430 0000000000
2027. 1934N 06627W 00373 0046 168 020 214 162 021 00431 0000000000
2028 1936N 06627W 00371 0045 165 024 206 166 025 00428 0000000000
2028. 1937N 06627W 00373 0043 167 026 204 166 027 00428 0000000000
;

[TSmith274]

This may have to get to 72W before it gets into westerly shear, albiet a bit lighter

I may get the idiot of the year award for writing in forecasts that "All signs point toward a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico"

You aren't alone, believe me. I think this one fooled everyone.

[HouTXmetro]

This may have to get to 72W before it gets into westerly shear, albiet a bit lighter

I may get the idiot of the year award for writing in forecasts that "All signs point toward a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico"

Nope, many share those thoughts.

[stormtruth]

This may have to get to 72W before it gets into westerly shear, albiet a bit lighter

I may get the idiot of the year award for writing in forecasts that "All signs point toward a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico"

You were right before when u said it was weaking. I disagreed because I was busy looking at the pretty Dvorak picture (before Chris lost his clothes) instead of the recon data.

[StormsAhead]

[Brent]

WOOHOO! A whole knot. Run!

[beachbum_al]

Derek,
First I don't think you are crazy. Actually you are a remarkable met. So don't think I am being rude or disrespectful when I ask why you think this will be a hurricane in the Gulf. I respect your opinion. So far you have hit this one on the dot!

[Josephine96]

I thought it would have become a hurricane yesterday. But it appears to be hanging on for dear life now..

[dwg71]

Derek,
First I don't think you are crazy. Actually you are a remarkable met. So don't think I am being rude or disrespectful when I ask why you think this will be a hurricane in the Gulf. I respect your opinion. So far you have hit this one on the dot!

He thought it was, he doesnt think it will anymore.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 032041
AF308 0603A CHRIS HDOB 26 KNHC
2029 1939N 06627W 00372 0043 164 026 202 172 027 00427 0000000000
2029. 1941N 06627W 00372 0043 156 027 204 184 028 00427 0000000000
2030 1943N 06627W 00373 0043 159 028 204 186 030 00428 0000000000
2030. 1945N 06627W 00373 0044 160 027 210 192 027 00428 0000000000
2031 1946N 06628W 00372 0045 161 026 208 188 027 00429 0000000000
2031. 1948N 06628W 00371 0046 164 025 210 184 026 00428 0000000000
2032 1950N 06628W 00373 0047 162 025 212 182 025 00431 0000000000
2032. 1952N 06628W 00373 0047 162 025 210 190 025 00432 0000000000
2033 1953N 06628W 00371 0048 161 023 206 200 024 00430 0000000000
2033. 1955N 06628W 00374 0046 160 024 212 184 024 00431 0000000000
2034 1957N 06628W 00373 0045 162 026 216 168 026 00429 0000000000
2034. 1959N 06628W 00373 0046 167 026 218 160 027 00431 0000000000
2035 2000N 06628W 00373 0048 168 023 212 172 024 00432 0000000000
2035. 2002N 06628W 00370 0047 169 024 208 174 026 00429 0000000000
2036 2004N 06628W 00374 0047 169 027 208 166 028 00432 0000000000
2036. 2006N 06628W 00372 0046 171 027 202 184 029 00429 0000000000
2037 2007N 06629W 00374 0045 176 032 194 180 032 00431 0000000000
2037. 2009N 06629W 00371 0045 171 030 200 182 030 00427 0000000000
2038 2011N 06629W 00373 0045 167 029 200 176 030 00430 0000000000
2038. 2013N 06629W 00373 0044 166 031 204 174 031 00429 0000000000
;

[beachbum_al]

Oh okay. I read it wrong. Sorry.

[jasons2k]

This may have to get to 72W before it gets into westerly shear, albiet a bit lighter

I may get the idiot of the year award for writing in forecasts that "All signs point toward a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico"

Don't beat yourself up. We all fell for the trap.

[MississippiHurricane]

CHRIS AT MARGINAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT LIKELY TO
WEAKEN...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.2 WEST OR ABOUT 195
MILES...315 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR EARLY ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND
NORTHERN HAITI THROUGH FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...20.7 N...68.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

[Josephine96]

I could give you guys my amateur opinion, but wouldn't wanna risk being called an idiot

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
2100 UTC THU AUG 03 2006

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 68.2W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 68.2W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 67.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.9N 69.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.3N 72.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.7N 74.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.2N 76.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.3N 82.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 24.5N 87.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 25.5N 92.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 68.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

WTNT33 KNHC 032042
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 PM AST THU AUG 03 2006

...CHRIS AT MARGINAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT LIKELY TO
WEAKEN...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.2 WEST OR ABOUT 195
MILES...315 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR EARLY ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND
NORTHERN HAITI THROUGH FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...20.7 N...68.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 PM EDT THU AUG 03 2006

THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND WINDS OF 39 KT AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 800
FT OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF CHRIS. USING STANDARD REDUCTION
VALUES THIS WOULD CORRESPOND TO SURFACE WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH. SINCE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT THERE ARE A FEW
SPOTS OF TROPICAL STORM WINDS SOMEWHERE IN THE CIRCULATION...CHRIS
IS NOT BEING DOWNGRADED ON THIS PACKAGE. A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS
REDEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...BUT THIS
CONVECTION WAS NOT VERY DEEP. ASSUMING THAT SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
SPIN DOWN TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
SHEAR COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT IN A FEW DAYS BUT BY THEN THE SYSTEM MAY
HAVE WEAKENED TO THE EXTENT THAT IT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO COME BACK.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST SIMPLY MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN DISSIPATION AND
REGENERATION.

THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. CHRIS OR ITS
REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 20.7N 68.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 20.9N 69.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 21.3N 72.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 21.7N 74.3W 30 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 22.2N 76.9W 30 KT
72HR VT 06/1800Z 23.3N 82.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 07/1800Z 24.5N 87.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 08/1800Z 25.5N 92.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[curtadams]

I actually think he's strengthening some. Convection is strengthening in the sheared updraft. Clouds are thickening around the center (more moisture). The center keeps getting theese distortions that suggest absorbing smaller vortices. Current conditions should keep him a TD and maybe even a weak TS.