Tropical Storm Beryl

[cycloneye]

Until it's official,for all purposes it's still TD 2.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Hmm.. Are the water temps high enough to sustain a strong system there? Just wondering..

[WindRunner]

But note the plane has found a 1008mb pressure with a 15kt wind . . . so unless anyone wants to argue that what we are looking at is a 1006mb depression, I'm going to go with it as a TS.

[Aric Dunn]

only 32kts still no tropical storm force winds

[skysummit]

But note the plane has found a 1008mb pressure with a 15kt wind . . . so unless anyone wants to argue that what we are looking at is a 1006mb depression, I'm going to go with it as a TS.

So "you're" going to go with it as a TS, heh? Ok......

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Looks like a TS to me, but then again this still doesn't have convection over the center.

[WindRunner]

But note the plane has found a 1008mb pressure with a 15kt wind . . . so unless anyone wants to argue that what we are looking at is a 1006mb depression, I'm going to go with it as a TS.

So "you're" going to go with it as a TS, heh? Ok......

So maybe I've jumped the gun a little bit here . . . but now I have to defend my position, as for once it appears I'm the only one that didn't jump on the upgrade. Usually by now we'd have about three "OMG! It's a tropical storm!" threads up by now, and we don't, which I'm actually glad about, even if it does make that one post there stick out like a sore thumb . . .

[Aric Dunn]

Ok we have TS force winds 1917 3307N 07312W 00202 5033 199 035 218 218 036 00181 0000000000

[Aric Dunn]

Storm Name: CYCLONE (02L)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF308
Flt Data Number: 24
Recon Position: 180 mi SE of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina

01: 19:10:30; 33.3°N 73.5°W; PA: 659ft; D-Val: -49 ft; Wnd: NE (39°) @ 30mph (Max: 31mph); T: 71F; D: 71F; Radar Alt: 650ft
02: 19:11:00; 33.3°N 73.5°W; PA: 656ft; D-Val: -52 ft; Wnd: NNE (26°) @ 30mph (Max: 31mph); T: 71F; D: 71F; Radar Alt: 640ft
03: 19:11:30; 33.3°N 73.5°W; PA: 650ft; D-Val: -66 ft; Wnd: NNE (32°) @ 29mph (Max: 30mph); T: 71F; D: 71F; Radar Alt: 623ft
04: 19:12:00; 33.3°N 73.4°W; PA: 656ft; D-Val: -75 ft; Wnd: NE (35°) @ 24mph (Max: 26mph); T: 72F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 617ft
05: 19:12:30; 33.2°N 73.4°W; PA: 656ft; D-Val: -85 ft; Wnd: NNE (33°) @ 18mph (Max: 21mph); T: 72F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 610ft
06: 19:13:00; 33.2°N 73.4°W; PA: 656ft; D-Val: -92 ft; Wnd: NE (35°) @ 13mph (Max: 15mph); T: 72F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 600ft
07: 19:13:30; 33.2°N 73.4°W; PA: 659ft; D-Val: -98 ft; Wnd: NNE (14°) @ 9mph (Max: 10mph); T: 73F; D: 73F; Radar Alt: 597ft
08: 19:14:00; 33.2°N 73.4°W; PA: 656ft; D-Val: -98 ft; Wnd: NNW (329°) @ 6mph (Max: 7mph); T: 73F; D: 73F; Radar Alt: 594ft
09: 19:14:30; 33.2°N 73.3°W; PA: 656ft; D-Val: -102 ft; Wnd: WNW (292°) @ 7mph (Max: 7mph); T: 73F; D: 73F; Radar Alt: 594ft
10: 19:15:00; 33.2°N 73.3°W; PA: 656ft; D-Val: -105 ft; Wnd: WNW (294°) @ 7mph (Max: 8mph); T: 73F; D: 73F; Radar Alt: 587ft
11: 19:15:30; 33.1°N 73.3°W; PA: 656ft; D-Val: -105 ft; Wnd: W (277°) @ 7mph (Max: 8mph); T: 73F; D: 73F; Radar Alt: 587ft
12: 19:16:00; 33.1°N 73.3°W; PA: 650ft; D-Val: -112 ft; Wnd: WSW (244°) @ 7mph (Max: 9mph); T: 73F; D: 73F; Radar Alt: 574ft
13: 19:16:30; 33.1°N 73.2°W; PA: 659ft; D-Val: -115 ft; Wnd: SSW (212°) @ 23mph (Max: 33mph); T: 72F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 584ft
14: 19:17:00; 33.1°N 73.2°W; PA: 663ft; D-Val: -108 ft; Wnd: SSW (199°) @ 40mph (Max: 41mph); T: 71F; D: 71F; Radar Alt: 594ft
15: 19:17:30; 33.2°N 73.2°W; PA: 650ft; D-Val: -108 ft; Wnd: S (186°) @ 31mph (Max: 38mph); T: 72F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 581ft
16: 19:18:00; 33.2°N 73.2°W; PA: 650ft; D-Val: -108 ft; Wnd: S (179°) @ 16mph (Max: 21mph); T: 72F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 577ft
17: 19:18:30; 33.2°N 73.3°W; PA: 656ft; D-Val: -112 ft; Wnd: SSW (195°) @ 7mph (Max: 8mph); T: 73F; D: 73F; Radar Alt: 581ft
18: 19:19:00; 33.2°N 73.3°W; PA: 659ft; D-Val: -112 ft; Wnd: SSW (192°) @ 2mph (Max: 3mph); T: 73F; D: 73F; Radar Alt: 584ft
19: 19:19:30; 33.2°N 73.3°W; PA: 656ft; D-Val: -108 ft; Wnd: ENE (77°) @ 2mph (Max: 3mph); T: 73F; D: 73F; Radar Alt: 584ft
20: 19:20:00; 33.2°N 73.3°W; PA: 656ft; D-Val: -108 ft; Wnd: ENE (58°) @ 8mph (Max: 9mph); T: 73F; D: 73F; Radar Alt: 584ft

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

WOW, almost 0 shear over TS Beryl.

[skysummit]

There we go! Now, will the NHC upgrade? I'm sure they can find stronger winds than that.

[Praxus]

Long Island eh.....hmmmm well it is just one model run.

But still definitely will be keeping a close eye on this one.

[Grease Monkey]

But note the plane has found a 1008mb pressure with a 15kt wind . . . so unless anyone wants to argue that what we are looking at is a 1006mb depression, I'm going to go with it as a TS.

So "you're" going to go with it as a TS, heh? Ok......

Usually by now we'd have about three "OMG! It's a tropical storm!"

I know we only had one this time, but then the name was changed.

[Nimbus]

If you live in new england you have about 10 minutes to call your insurance company and raise your limits. Once a storm has been declared you are out of luck. Timing is everything.

[StormScanWx]

14: 19:17:00; 33.1°N 73.2°W; PA: 663ft; D-Val: -108 ft; Wnd: SSW (199°) @ ***40mph*** (Max: 41mph); T: 71F; D: 71F; Radar Alt: 594ft
15: 19:17:30; 33.2°N 73.2°W; PA: 650ft; D-Val: -108 ft; Wnd: S (186°) @ 31mph (Max: 38mph); T: 72F; D: 72F; Radar Alt: 581ft

[Thunder44]

Ok we have TS force winds 1917 3307N 07312W 00202 5033 199 035 218 218 036 00181 0000000000

That is at flight level.

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z GFDL shifted west. Makes landfall on Central Long Island.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

very intresting

uh-oh. May be the doomsday NY scenario could be coming to life. Hopefully not, but there seems to be a chance. I would watch this very closely if I were in the Big Apple.

Bring it on!

Even if it did become a Tropical Storm and make landfall on Long Island, there's not much change of a "doomsday" event.

no, not as a TS, but if this managed to become a hurricane then there would be a chance.

[HurricaneHunter914]

They'll probably make a Special Advisory. Till then this is TS Beryl in my books.

[WindRunner]

Ok we have TS force winds 1917 3307N 07312W 00202 5033 199 035 218 218 036 00181 0000000000

That is at flight level.

Yeah, and that'll convert to about 32kts at the surface.

[Aric Dunn]

yes it is but ,,,, but only at 594 ft above the surface .. when you extrap.. down to the surface .. from there its still 39 to 40 mph to that is TS force