Tropical Storm Chris

[MississippiHurricane]

At this rate, shear will HELP tropical systems. I mean just looking at how our climate is changing, I would not be surpised.

[Recurve]

Wasn't Katrina in an odd patch off Florida? Soupy enironment, but it didn't come together very well, models showed anything from loop across florida and back into the big bend almost, to a rapidly intensifying storm diving south toward Key Largo (the GFDL I think, which actually was almost right, but had an insane intensity forecast), and Katrina barely achieved cat 1 at landfall, we were expecting mostly a TS for the two days before, if I remember right.
Just reminiscing, not that Chris is in any kind of similar synoptic environment to Katrina off the SF coast...just the development of a weak system rather close to land in August.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

1012 millibars...In whats worst is 24c inside in 24c outside the system with 304 heights inside in out. This LLC is dieing...In needs to keep flaring up that convection now.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 032350
AF308 0603A CHRIS HDOB 45 KNHC
2339 2007N 06756W 00764 0056 178 035 182 182 035 00843 0000000000
2339. 2006N 06755W 00766 0056 181 035 194 188 035 00845 0000000000
2340 2005N 06754W 00764 0057 180 035 200 188 035 00844 0000000000
2340. 2005N 06752W 00770 0056 182 036 206 182 036 00850 0000000000
2341 2005N 06750W 00762 0058 171 034 196 184 035 00843 0000000000
2341. 2005N 06748W 00766 0059 173 034 190 180 035 00848 0000000000
2342 2006N 06746W 00763 0058 174 031 188 188 032 00845 0000000000
2342. 2006N 06745W 00765 0059 175 031 188 188 033 00847 0000000000
2343 2005N 06743W 00762 0057 181 030 188 188 031 00842 0000000000
2343. 2004N 06741W 00765 0057 186 034 196 166 034 00845 0000000000
2344 2003N 06740W 00764 0058 182 033 196 166 033 00845 0000000000
2344. 2002N 06739W 00765 0059 179 032 198 160 032 00847 0000000000
2345 2000N 06739W 00762 0059 180 032 196 162 032 00844 0000000000
2345. 1959N 06738W 00766 0059 180 031 196 166 031 00848 0000000000
2346 1958N 06737W 00764 0060 179 031 196 180 031 00847 0000000000
2346. 1957N 06736W 00762 0060 178 028 190 190 030 00846 0000000000
2347 1956N 06735W 00766 0061 175 026 186 186 026 00850 0000000000
2347. 1955N 06733W 00762 0063 170 026 188 186 026 00848 0000000000
2348 1954N 06732W 00765 0062 167 027 186 184 028 00851 0000000000
2348. 1952N 06731W 00763 0062 166 027 188 188 029 00848 0000000000
;

[Stormavoider]

I count 28 lightning strikes in Chris' SE quad in the past 20 minutes . . . definately firing up . . .

Is there a public link to that data?

[MississippiHurricane]

[url][/url]


Still looks convection is blowing up

[Grease Monkey]

But maybe the good news for chris is his LLC is only dieing slowly which might give him enough time to get to a more favorable enviroment.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Whats worth theres no temperature difference at all from inside to out. 304 height through out. That means that the LLC has no fuel. Its good that chris is forming convection because its like a human under 40 feet of water for 3 minutes. His/her brain is starting to die.

[jhamps10]

yeah, but for it to survive it needs to get some more convection around the center of circulation.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

That will be the key late tonight.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

As convection forms it will release heat into the Atmosphere which will help reform the difference between the inside and outside. Which will strengthen the cyclone. Every little burst helps.

[jhamps10]

looking at IR 2 it may, and I can't overxpressly use the word may be getting more convection going Around the center, some wanting to develop in the NE quad of the storm.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
800 PM AST THU AUG 03 2006

...CHRIS HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
MODIFIED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH... WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH
HAITI EASTWARD TO SEMANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN
THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...
AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST OR ABOUT 165
MILES...265 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

CHRIS IS MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL BE OVER OR NEAR THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ON FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CHRIS COULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION
TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND
NORTHERN HAITI THROUGH FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...20.7 N...68.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

[JonathanBelles]

the west side of the storm seems to be falling in

[jhamps10]

...CHRIS HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
MODIFIED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH... WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH
HAITI EASTWARD TO SEMANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN
THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...
AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST OR ABOUT 165
MILES...265 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

CHRIS IS MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL BE OVER OR NEAR THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ON FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CHRIS COULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION
TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND
NORTHERN HAITI THROUGH FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...20.7 N...68.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB.

[Extremeweatherguy]

8pm = Still a TS. 40mph.

[MississippiHurricane]

I guess I will be up all night again.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I see popcorn convection forming in a line to the north and northeast side. Which is a shear block. Which helping block the core of the system from the shear. Pretty much a converces zone. It will likely help protect chris so he can get convection firing over the center.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 040000
AF308 0603A CHRIS HDOB 46 KNHC
2349 1951N 06730W 00765 0063 171 028 190 178 029 00851 0000000000
2349. 1950N 06729W 00764 0063 175 031 182 182 032 00851 0000000000
2350 1949N 06728W 00761 0064 174 030 184 182 032 00848 0000000000
2350. 1948N 06726W 00766 0066 173 027 184 184 029 00855 0000000000
2351 1947N 06726W 00762 0066 176 027 184 180 028 00851 0000000000
2351. 1945N 06725W 00765 0066 176 026 184 180 027 00855 0000000000
2352 1944N 06725W 00763 0066 179 027 192 174 027 00852 0000000000
2352. 1942N 06725W 00765 0066 183 027 192 176 028 00854 0000000000
2353 1941N 06725W 00770 0067 186 027 190 172 028 00860 0000000000
2353. 1939N 06724W 00763 0068 189 026 192 172 027 00854 0000000000
2354 1937N 06724W 00764 0069 187 025 194 178 025 00857 0000000000
2354. 1935N 06724W 00764 0069 188 025 196 172 026 00856 0000000000
2355 1934N 06724W 00763 0069 185 026 192 176 026 00855 0000000000
2355. 1932N 06723W 00765 0068 176 028 192 166 029 00856 0000000000
2356 1931N 06722W 00762 0068 170 029 192 170 030 00853 0000000000
2356. 1929N 06721W 00765 0069 167 027 188 164 028 00858 0000000000
2357 1928N 06719W 00765 0070 171 027 190 158 027 00859 0000000000
2357. 1927N 06718W 00760 0070 167 023 188 174 024 00854 0000000000
2358 1925N 06717W 00754 0070 168 022 188 182 023 00847 0000000000
2358. 1924N 06716W 00763 0069 175 021 192 172 023 00856 0000000000
;

[Jim Cantore]

is it just me or is it dropping just south of west?