Tropical Storm Chris

Scorpion · #3781 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:26 pm

rockyman wrote:Center appears to be moving off due west at a pretty good clip...if this doesn't pull up soon, it will crash into eastern Cuba...it might even be possible for the center to slip SW between eastern Cuba and Hispaniola....

Wouldn't it be better for Chris though? The faster he goes, the better chance he outruns the shear right?

#3782 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:26 pm

Also - sorry so many posts - catching up after a long day - BUT

I wouldn't put too much stock in those DVORAK estimates with such a disorganized system such as this. Unless the shear relaxes over the system and the convection can wrap they don't mean too much IMO.

But yes, no doubt the convection is deeper than before. Thge question is will it stick around (yes, there's a pun there) or get blown away (one there too). :cheesy:

Swimdude · #3783 Postby **Swimdude** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:26 pm

rockyman wrote:Center appears to be moving off due west at a pretty good clip...if this doesn't pull up soon, it will crash into eastern Cuba...it might even be possible for the center to slip SW between eastern Cuba and Hispaniola....

I agree... It seems Chris is headed straight for Cuba, but then again, that is the official forecast.

#3784 Postby **MississippiHurricane** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:27 pm

WOW! Pressure is 1003 MB

Stratusxpeye · #3785 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:27 pm

looks like chris is battling it out out there. Trying to fire and pull that convection to his SE up around him. This has by far been the hardest storm for me to make a prediction on. I've stayed pretty silent with this one.

ROCK · #3786 Postby **ROCK** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:27 pm

rockyman wrote:Center appears to be moving off due west at a pretty good clip...if this doesn't pull up soon, it will crash into eastern Cuba...it might even be possible for the center to slip SW between eastern Cuba and Hispaniola....

still missing the forecast points to the north albeit not by a lot. Trying to gain some lat. Not sure it will make it though.

Extremeweatherguy · #3787 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:27 pm

Swimdude wrote:
rockyman wrote:Center appears to be moving off due west at a pretty good clip...if this doesn't pull up soon, it will crash into eastern Cuba...it might even be possible for the center to slip SW between eastern Cuba and Hispaniola....

I agree... It seems Chris is headed straight for Cuba, but then again, that is the official forecast.

actually if you put the overlay over the loop of Chris, the center is north of the 5pm forecast track.

ROCK · #3788 Postby **ROCK** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:28 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Swimdude wrote:
rockyman wrote:Center appears to be moving off due west at a pretty good clip...if this doesn't pull up soon, it will crash into eastern Cuba...it might even be possible for the center to slip SW between eastern Cuba and Hispaniola....

I agree... It seems Chris is headed straight for Cuba, but then again, that is the official forecast.
actually if you put the overlay over the loop of Chris, the center is north of the 5pm forecast track.

great minds think alike.... :lol:

Extremeweatherguy · #3789 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:28 pm

Misshurricane wrote:WOW! Pressure is 1003 MB

what? Where did you get this from? Is this from the new advisory? :eek:

#3790 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:29 pm

Misshurricane wrote:WOW! Pressure is 1003 MB

That gets my attention more than the convection and Dvorak estimates. Impressive.

Scorpion · #3791 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:29 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Misshurricane wrote:WOW! Pressure is 1003 MB
what? Where did you get this from? Is this from the new advisory?

No. Thats the DVORAK estimate.

miamicanes177 · #3792 Postby **miamicanes177** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:29 pm

Misshurricane wrote:WOW! Pressure is 1003 MB

?

Extremeweatherguy · #3793 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:29 pm

ROCK wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Swimdude wrote:
rockyman wrote:Center appears to be moving off due west at a pretty good clip...if this doesn't pull up soon, it will crash into eastern Cuba...it might even be possible for the center to slip SW between eastern Cuba and Hispaniola....

I agree... It seems Chris is headed straight for Cuba, but then again, that is the official forecast.
actually if you put the overlay over the loop of Chris, the center is north of the 5pm forecast track.

great minds think alike....

haha. I was just about to say the same thing. :wink:

Stratosphere747 · #3794 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:29 pm

There is NO 1003 pressure...

bamaboy · #3795 Postby **bamaboy** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:29 pm

Big Deal. Once it hits Cuba as disorganized as it is it'll have a hard time surviving never say never though. :beam:

whereverwx · #3796 Postby **whereverwx** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:29 pm

This storm still has an incredible amount of shear to face… maybe the only reason it’s blowing up is because the surrounding environment is not as dry as it was a few hours ago.

ROCK · #3797 Postby **ROCK** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:30 pm

1003 is aweful low for Chris being exposed. not to mention the lack of convection. Need recon......

#3798 Postby **MississippiHurricane** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:31 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt1.html

Noles2006 · #3799 Postby **Noles2006** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:31 pm

Dvorak is based solely on satellite presentation, without any actual surface obs, if I'm correct. I don't think it's very useful right now.

Website · #3800 Postby **Brent** » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:31 pm

The pressure is NOT 1003 mb. You should really not use DVORAK estimates when a plane was just in there 2 1/2 hours ago. Pressure defintely hasn't dropped that much.

Tropical Storm Chris

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