Tropical Storm Chris

[clfenwi]

SXXX50 KNHC 041053
AF307 0703A CHRIS HDOB 42 KNHC
1041. 2153N 07002W 01523 0097 140 023 174 112 023 01655 0000000000
1042 2154N 07001W 01524 0097 140 024 174 118 025 01656 0000000000
1042. 2156N 06959W 01523 0098 138 025 172 114 025 01657 0000000000
1043 2157N 06958W 01524 0098 137 025 172 136 025 01657 0000000000
1043. 2159N 06956W 01523 0101 135 025 170 138 026 01660 0000000000
1044 2201N 06956W 01524 0104 132 025 170 144 026 01663 0000000000
1044. 2202N 06958W 01525 0099 123 025 172 148 025 01660 0000000000
1045 2202N 07001W 01525 0100 121 027 172 148 027 01661 0000000000
1045. 2203N 07003W 01525 0101 122 027 174 142 027 01661 0000000000
1046 2204N 07006W 01522 0101 124 027 170 146 027 01659 0000000000
1046. 2205N 07008W 01523 0101 126 027 172 130 028 01659 0000000000
1047 2206N 07010W 01523 0101 125 026 172 120 027 01660 0000000000
1047. 2207N 07013W 01523 0100 122 026 170 112 026 01658 0000000000
1048 2208N 07015W 01523 0100 116 025 170 108 026 01659 0000000000
1048. 2209N 07017W 01523 0100 115 024 170 110 024 01658 0000000000
1049 2210N 07020W 01523 0100 114 024 172 118 024 01658 0000000000
1049. 2211N 07022W 01523 0100 119 024 174 124 024 01658 0000000000
1050 2212N 07024W 01523 0100 119 023 170 132 023 01658 0000000000
1050. 2213N 07027W 01523 0099 120 023 170 146 023 01658 0000000000
1051 2214N 07029W 01523 0099 115 023 168 140 023 01657 0000000000

[clfenwi]

SXXX50 KNHC 041103
AF307 0703A CHRIS HDOB 43 KNHC
1051. 2215N 07031W 01523 0099 111 022 170 134 023 01658 0000000000
1052 2216N 07034W 01523 0099 108 023 170 130 023 01657 0000000000
1052. 2217N 07036W 01523 0099 103 024 172 120 025 01657 0000000000
1053 2218N 07038W 01523 0100 102 024 170 132 024 01659 0000000000
1053. 2219N 07041W 01523 0099 105 022 166 138 022 01657 0000000000
1054 2220N 07043W 01523 0099 108 022 164 142 022 01657 0000000000
1054. 2221N 07046W 01523 0099 109 023 160 144 023 01658 0000000000
1055 2222N 07048W 01523 0099 109 021 162 148 021 01657 0000000000
1055. 2223N 07050W 01523 0099 104 022 166 134 023 01658 0000000000
1056 2224N 07053W 01523 0099 101 023 164 130 023 01657 0000000000
1056. 2225N 07055W 01523 0099 100 023 164 128 024 01657 0000000000
1057 2226N 07057W 01523 0102 095 020 160 148 022 01660 0000000000
1057. 2224N 07059W 01523 0100 084 019 160 144 020 01658 0000000000
1058 2222N 07059W 01517 0098 088 015 170 114 016 01651 0000000000
1058. 2219N 07059W 01524 0098 087 016 170 114 016 01657 0000000000
1059 2217N 07059W 01523 0097 083 016 172 114 016 01655 0000000000
1059. 2215N 07059W 01523 0098 087 015 168 124 015 01656 0000000000
1100 2212N 07059W 01523 0097 088 014 162 146 014 01655 0000000000
1100. 2211N 07059W 01523 0097 085 014 164 140 015 01655 0000000000
1101 2208N 07059W 01522 0096 085 015 162 152 016 01654 0000000000

[clfenwi]

SXXX50 KNHC 041113
AF307 0703A CHRIS HDOB 44 KNHC
1101. 2206N 07059W 01523 0096 083 015 160 158 016 01655 0000000000
1102 2204N 07059W 01522 0097 082 016 160 160 016 01655 0000000000
1102. 2202N 07059W 01523 0096 079 015 160 160 016 01654 0000000000
1103 2200N 07059W 01523 0096 082 017 162 162 018 01655 0000000000
1103. 2157N 07059W 01522 0095 079 017 164 164 017 01653 0000000000
1104 2155N 07059W 01523 0095 076 017 166 166 018 01654 0000000000
1104. 2153N 07059W 01521 0095 069 018 166 158 019 01652 0000000000
1105 2151N 07059W 01524 0094 071 019 170 162 019 01654 0000000000
1105. 2148N 07059W 01523 0094 066 018 170 164 019 01652 0000000000
1106 2146N 07059W 01523 0093 060 018 170 160 019 01651 0000000000
1106. 2144N 07059W 01523 0092 066 019 174 156 020 01650 0000000000
1107 2142N 07059W 01523 0091 061 020 176 150 020 01649 0000000000
1107. 2139N 07059W 01524 0091 052 018 184 136 019 01651 0000000000
1108 2137N 07059W 01523 0090 055 017 182 138 018 01649 0000000000
1108. 2135N 07059W 01522 0090 060 016 182 140 017 01648 0000000000
1109 2132N 07059W 01523 0091 071 013 184 138 014 01649 0000000000
1109. 2130N 07059W 01527 0091 072 009 182 150 009 01654 0000000000
1110 2128N 07059W 01523 0090 076 008 178 154 009 01648 0000000000
1110. 2126N 07059W 01523 0090 078 005 180 152 005 01648 0000000000
1111 2124N 07059W 01523 0090 067 005 180 150 005 01648 0000000000

[cycloneye]

A VDM is comming.

[Air Force Met]

It still looks a little better then it did yesterday though, the convection was always going to fall apart because the shear simply is still too strong, also worth noting that Hispaniola seems to now be affecting the inflow of Chris as well. mind you I also believe its a tropical depression as well.

Those are my thoughts as well, Chris being effected by Hispaniola. I think after @ 6 to 10 more hrs. of strong shear conditions will improve, the western side is starting to gain a little more moisture already so if it hasn't opened up by late afternoon I'll predict a 60 mph storm by this time tomorrow.

I mentioned this yesterday morning...that once he got north of the island, the moist southerly inflow would be cut off and adiabatic warming would dry the air out as it came off the mountains. It would also mess of the southern part of the circulation.

[WindRunner]

Here are the first of the two remaining missing sets, but the second one appears to have not been transmitted. This one gives the "profile" you want, however.

SXXX50 KNHC 040844
AF307 0703A CHRIS HDOB 27 KNHC
0811. 2133N 07000W 01525 0082 155 025 174 170 025 01643 0000000000
0812 2134N 06959W 01524 0083 156 026 170 170 027 01643 0000000000
0812. 2135N 06958W 01524 0084 158 027 170 170 027 01644 0000000000
0813 2137N 06956W 01524 0085 155 024 166 166 024 01645 0000000000
0813. 2138N 06955W 01524 0086 145 025 164 150 026 01645 0000000000
0814 2139N 06954W 01524 0086 141 026 166 138 027 01645 0000000000
0814. 2140N 06952W 01526 0086 142 027 170 136 028 01648 0000000000
0815 2142N 06951W 01525 0090 146 026 170 144 027 01650 0000000000
0815. 2143N 06952W 01527 0091 131 028 170 132 029 01653 0000000000
0816 2143N 06954W 01519 0087 128 025 170 138 027 01641 0000000000
0816. 2143N 06956W 01525 0086 136 023 166 148 023 01647 0000000000
0817 2143N 06958W 01525 0085 139 022 166 152 023 01646 0000000000
0817. 2143N 07000W 01524 0085 142 021 168 160 021 01645 0000000000
0818 2143N 07001W 01524 0084 142 018 172 162 019 01644 0000000000
0818. 2143N 07003W 01524 0085 135 019 176 160 019 01645 0000000000
0819 2143N 07005W 01524 0084 136 020 176 158 021 01643 0000000000
0819. 2143N 07007W 01525 0083 140 021 174 166 023 01643 0000000000
0820 2143N 07009W 01525 0083 136 021 170 166 022 01643 0000000000
0820. 2143N 07011W 01525 0083 128 021 170 166 021 01643 0000000000
0821 2144N 07013W 01524 0082 124 019 170 166 020 01641 0000000000

[clfenwi]

SXXX50 KNHC 041123
AF307 0703A CHRIS HDOB 45 KNHC
1111. 2121N 07059W 01522 0090 097 009 178 144 011 01648 0000000000
1112 2119N 07059W 01523 0088 076 011 176 142 012 01647 0000000000
1112. 2117N 07059W 01524 0089 060 007 184 146 008 01648 0000000000
1113 2115N 07059W 01523 0089 057 005 188 148 006 01647 0000000000
1113. 2112N 07059W 01523 0088 043 004 190 146 004 01646 0000000000
1114 2110N 07059W 01523 0089 334 003 184 174 003 01648 0000000000
1114. 2108N 07057W 01524 0089 300 001 178 176 003 01649 0000000000
1115 2107N 07056W 01522 0089 192 002 180 170 003 01646 0000000000
1115. 2105N 07054W 01523 0090 235 004 180 158 005 01649 0000000000
1116 2104N 07052W 01523 0091 243 006 180 158 006 01649 0000000000
1116. 2102N 07051W 01523 0091 259 006 176 158 006 01649 0000000000
1117 2101N 07049W 01523 0091 262 007 176 152 009 01649 0000000000
1117. 2059N 07047W 01523 0091 243 007 174 156 008 01650 0000000000
1118 2058N 07046W 01523 0091 231 006 170 150 006 01649 0000000000
1118. 2056N 07044W 01523 0091 225 005 168 154 006 01650 0000000000
1119 2054N 07042W 01523 0089 242 006 162 162 007 01648 0000000000
1119. 2053N 07041W 01522 0089 236 008 170 158 009 01647 0000000000
1120 2051N 07039W 01523 0089 219 009 174 160 009 01648 0000000000
1120. 2050N 07037W 01523 0091 220 010 170 160 011 01650 0000000000
1121 2048N 07036W 01523 0093 208 013 172 154 013 01652 0000000000

[Jam151]

so when is this thing going to be downgraded?

[cycloneye]

Will they downgrade at 8 AM?

[kenl01]

Yes Chris is actually a depression since aircraft on the latest pass measured winds between 30 and 35knots overall, which is below TS status. There is also the possibility that the system could dissipate over Cuba into an open wave, since most of the intensity guidances anticipate dissipation.........

[clfenwi]

URNT12 KNHC 041128
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 04/11:14:20Z
B. 21 deg 08 min N
070 deg 57 min W
C. 850 mb 1543 m
D. 25 kt
E. 1 deg 077 nm
F. 100 deg 024 kt
G. 001 deg 077 nm
H. 1012 mb
I. 16 C/ 1522 m
J. 19 C/ 1521 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.12 / 2 nm
P. AF307 0703A CHRIS OB 24
MAX FL WIND 28 KT NE QUAD 10:46:00 Z

[cycloneye]

Only 28kts at the strongest quadrant the NE.

[clfenwi]

Here are the first of the two remaining missing sets, but the second one appears to have not been transmitted. This one gives the "profile" you want, however.
(snipped the observation set)

Thanks for digging it up. Looks like the max was roughly in the same position relative to the center on both passes. However, the earlier pass did not have a dip in between the center and the max; it was essentially a steady increase.

[Hyperstorm]

Yes, the LLC is slowly becoming diffuse. If we don't see a burst of new convection by 11pm tonight, we can all say Goodbye Chris...

[cycloneye]

WTNT33 KNHC 041138
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
800 AM AST FRI AUG 04 2006

...CHRIS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS
IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THESE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

AT 8 AM...1200 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COAST
OF HISPANIOLA FROM LA MOLE ST. NICOLAS HAITI EASTWARD TO SAMANA
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.1 WEST OR ABOUT 20
MILES... 30 KM...SOUTH OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT CHRIS HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS FOR CHRIS TO REGAIN TROPICAL
STORM STATUS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 6
INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH TODAY.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...21.2 N...71.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA

[cycloneye]

Downgraded to TD at the 8 AM advisory.

[cheezyWXguy]

ls there a lot of shear still over this storm?

[HURAKAN]

Only 28kts at the strongest quadrant the NE.

[Jam151]

the morning nhc discussion will be interesting. do they call for intensification or write it off?

[KWT]

It looks weaker then yesterday morning for sure, the LLC doesn't seem quite so tight and is becoming slacker now, hardly suprising given how unfavorable condtions are right now for Chris. Jam151, I suspect they will hold it steady at the 30-35kt mark which leaves scope for both strengthning but also weakening further.