Tropical Storm Chris

[HouTXmetro]

I think he will survive, give him a few hours.

[cycloneye]

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT CHRIS HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS FOR CHRIS TO REGAIN TROPICAL
STORM STATUS.


From 8 AM Advisory.

They leave the door open to upgrade again to Tropical Storm.

[kenl01]

I doubt it will given the unfavorable environment and the interaction with Cuba and Hispaniola coming up.

[kenl01]

maybe another jet skier will waive at recon today with these 15 m.p.h. winds and no rain

Exactly.
If I were there, I'd be jet skiing in there right now. And don't forget the sunscreen either..........

[wxwatcher91]

If Chris can regain TS intensity and strengthen from here on out, he will likely move north of Cuba... and may even come ashore in southern Florida, however if Chris remains a weak TD, he will likely crash into Cuba and from there, dissipate

[Nimbus]

TD Chris slowed down by almost a third over the last 6 hours, the convection he was gathering must have hindered forward motion. It does not take much convective lift to maintain a small TD And the ULL to the east is sinking south faster than it is moving west. Even though overall Chris looks much weaker than he did yesterday morning its worth checking back tonight after the diurnal max to see if he is getting out of the shear.

[clfenwi]

the morning nhc discussion will be interesting. do they call for intensification or write it off?

Probably call for steady state with slight intensification down the road. Unless Franklin is writing the forecast.

[miamicanes177]

Deja vu...another morning and I wake up to people writing it off and calling it finished. Don't you people EVER learn your lesson?!?!? Persistant bunch you unbelievers are! That 5-10kts of shear today will be much welcomed by Chris.

[wxman57]

I don't see any favorable upper-level winds between the TD and Cuba. Beyond Cuba, a fairly strong ridge over the Gulf Coast States may be producing NE winds 25-40 kts across the central Gulf aloft. That won't be too favorable for redevelopment, but I wouldn't rule out the chance that Chris may regain a few pockets of TS force wind south of the center before reaching northeast Mexico or south Texas. On the other hand, the LLC may not survive the Cuba crossing.

[Frank2]

I'd have to say that it's likely to dissipate once it crosses the Cuban coast...

[miamicanes177]

the last few frames convection is beginning to flare up in the SE quad again....just like yesterday.

[curtadams]

Shear - and land for that matter - is irrelevant now because he's not generating any convection. Nothing to shear and nothing for land to cut off.

[HURAKAN]

[Normandy]

Ok if Chris makes it past this...then wow.

[westmoon]

miamicanes177,

Posted: Fri Aug 04, 2006 7:42 am Post subject:



Deja vu...another morning and I wake up to people writing it off and calling it finished. Don't you people EVER learn your lesson?!?!? Persistant bunch you unbelievers are! That 5-10kts of shear today will be much welcomed by Chris.

Some of them missed the fact that chris was renamed Timex Takes a licking & keeps on ticking

[HouTXmetro]

We shall see what happens, and BTW CHris is still moving north of his forecasted points.

[kenl01]

I don't see any favorable upper-level winds between the TD and Cuba. Beyond Cuba, a fairly strong ridge over the Gulf Coast States may be producing NE winds 25-40 kts across the central Gulf aloft. That won't be too favorable for redevelopment, but I wouldn't rule out the chance that Chris may regain a few pockets of TS force wind south of the center before reaching northeast Mexico or south Texas. On the other hand, the LLC may not survive the Cuba crossing.

Agree 100 %

[beachbum_al]

Of course I am not a pro but going from what I am seeing right now I think Chris is going to either miss Cuba or skirt it barely.

I do have one question: There is a Low sitting off of Florida. How is this going to affect Chris once he makes it to the Gulf? Will it affect him? Also the front that is coming down through the southern states right now. Will that have an effect on where he goes?

[tgenius]

He couldn't possibly survive this could he? Is Chris a cat?

[stormtruth]

He couldn't possibly survive this could he? Is Chris a cat?

A Cat 0 right now