Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

[x-y-no]

As fast as she's moving, she could be in the NE Caribbean by then and curve up through eastern Cuba

Not going to happen. There will be a wekness ahead in a couple of days, if not earlier, so she will gain latltude crossing the basin.

[cycloneye]

I truly think the only question with Helene will be how much of miss...big or small...will there be w/r/t the NE Caribbean islands.

I don't disagree with any of your anaysis except that I still can't entirely rule out an impact on the leeward islands. I will agree that a miss, either big or small, is by far the most likely scenario.

That is why here in the NE Caribbean we are watching the progress of Helene very closely.Even if she moves NE of the islands by 150-200 miles,being as big as it is it may well affect the northernmost Leeward islands with the tail of it's southern end.We will see what the future track is in the next few days.

[Evil Jeremy]

we cant rule out he possibilly of a direct hit in the caribbean! even if the chances are very very low, their still their.

[Thunder44]

I truly think the only question with Helene will be how much of miss...big or small...will there be w/r/t the NE Caribbean islands.

I don't disagree with any of your anaysis except that I still can't entirely rule out an impact on the leeward islands. I will agree that a miss, either big or small, is by far the most likely scenario.

That is why here in the NE Caribbean we are watching the progress of Helene very closely.Even if she moves NE of the islands by 150-200 miles,being as big as it is it may well affect the northernmost Leeward islands with the tail of it's southern end.We will see what the future track is in the next few days.

I agree. I don't think it will make a direct hit on the islands though.

[wxman57]

I put the center at 141N/36.8W at 17:45Z. 6-hour movement is toward 297 degrees at 9.3 kts.

[gatorcane]

I put the center at 141N/36.8W at 17:45Z. 6-hour movement is toward 297 degrees at 9.3 kts.

Yep its already making the gradual turn.

[Nimbus]

Really hope she chooses a track other than the extrapolated motion...

[gatorcane]

Really hope she chooses a track other than the extrapolated motion...

you can't extrapolate as she is gradually turning now as we speak

[Thunder44]

I put the center at 141N/36.8W at 17:45Z. 6-hour movement is toward 297 degrees at 9.3 kts.

11am NHC position was 13.4N/36.8W. If your position is correct that would be a movement due north.

[Windtalker1]

I put the center at 141N/36.8W at 17:45Z. 6-hour movement is toward 297 degrees at 9.3 kts.

At 11am it was at 13.4 / 36.8....doubt it moved .7 only and no west movement.

[hial2]

I put the center at 141N/36.8W at 17:45Z. 6-hour movement is toward 297 degrees at 9.3 kts.

11am NHC position was 13.4N/36.8W. If your position is correct that would be a movement due north.

The NHC is having problems finding "the"center..at least that's my impression after reading the discussion..

[Thunder44]

I put the center at 141N/36.8W at 17:45Z. 6-hour movement is toward 297 degrees at 9.3 kts.

At 11am it was at 13.4 / 36.8....doubt it moved .7 only and no west movement.

I don't think he's tracking the same center TPC is tracking. I do see where his center is in this visible image and I agree with him. It's moving WNW or even NW now. Put on the Lat/Lon lines and the tropical forecast points from TPC:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/sloop-vis.html

[Derek Ortt]

there could be some turning closer to the QUIKSCAT center, though I also see a ceter where Chris fixed one. This means Helene is not exactly organizing today. The fix I come up with is 13.3N and 37.0W. I would guess mine is the "center" since it is supported by the QS

The NHC center almost certainly was too far west this morning

[wxman57]

I put the center at 141N/36.8W at 17:45Z. 6-hour movement is toward 297 degrees at 9.3 kts.

At 11am it was at 13.4 / 36.8....doubt it moved .7 only and no west movement.

It didn't move .7 north, it was a bad forecast position by the NHC on the last advisory. It's definitely at 14.0-14.1 now.

[wxman57]

there could be some turning closer to the QUIKSCAT center, though I also see a ceter where Chris fixed one. This means Helene is not exactly organizing today. The fix I come up with is 13.3N and 37.0W. I would guess mine is the "center" since it is supported by the QS

The NHC center almost certainly was too far west this morning

I agree NHC was too far west at 15Z, but I see clouds moving from west to east at 13.3 N on high-res visible shots. Definitely a vortex at 14.1N/36.7W now. Was there an 18Z QS fix?

[SouthFloridawx]

Looking at the WV loop, it shows a pretty strong ridge developing just behing the current trough. Is that forecast to move east, potentially keeping Helene moving west?

1) The current eastern CONUS trough should drop ESE and split off the weaker western nose of the ATLC ridge, causing it to retrograde back westward toward the GOMEX. This should cause Helene to acquire an increasing northward component of motion, first toward the WNW and then eventually NW.

2) It's the second longer wave trough currently digging into the western CONUS that should eventually slam the door on any ideas that Helene might have about getting close to the U.S. mainland. By days 6-7 there is what can only be described as a complete and utter flattening of the mean mid to upper level flow over the western ATLC north of 20-22N.

I truly think the only question with Helene will be how much of miss...big or small...will there be w/r/t the NE Caribbean islands.

This is an excellent description of what I have been seening with the models at around that time.

[cycloneye]

14/1745 UTC 14.0N 36.6W T2.5/2.5 HELENE -- Atlantic Ocean

SSD has it very close to Chris position.

[Derek Ortt]

you might be seeing an MLC at 14.1. I agree that there is turning, without a doubt where you put the center. but upon zooming a GARP loop up, I am seeing turning where I put the center as well, along with inflow into that turning, leading me to believe that what you are seeing is either a vortex rotating around the center, or an MLC

And of course, every single flipping microwave pass missed Helene recently

[Windtalker1]

I guess everyone is right then as far as position.

[Sanibel]

Give it a couple of days.