Tropical Storm Chris

[CrazyC83]

I really hope your forecast is wrong. Unless you have it steadily weakening up until it's GOM landfall.

While it is too far out to map out, I kinda see a sharp right turn almost right back onto the Florida peninsula...

[Regit]

Hey I do not like where you are pointing that arrow, it is not nice to point

don't worry there is nothing this time of year to turn it towards you

What does time of year have to do with it?

[Ivanhater]

Hey I do not like where you are pointing that arrow, it is not nice to point

don't worry there is nothing this time of year to turn it towards you

I would hope so, but of course that is just not true ...Charley and others come to mind....plus look at this historical map, crazy enough just to make it in the gulf but to make it all the way across?\

[WindRunner]

[SunnyThoughts]

Ivan and I refuse to accept that line lol Everybody keep on their toes, looks like someone might just be in for an unexpected visitor. Hopefully it won't be as strong as Crazy38 predicts, I sure hope not anyway.

[Ivanhater]

Ivan and I refuse to accept that line lol Everybody keep on their toes, looks like someone might just be in for an unexpected visitor. Hopefully it won't be as strong as Crazy38 predicts, I sure hope not anyway.

Lol, ya we refuse, but I don't think Chris cares

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

If Chris becomes a hurricane tonight, it would be one of the biggest busts in NHC history....

I trust the pros enough not to expect a continued rapid intensification. This is one blow-up of convection. Tomorrow will tell much better.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like 2006 is going to try to show that it is not weaker then 2004,2005. We will see.

[jasons2k]

Nice forecast, but why weaken it when it is in some of the warmest waters in the basin?

Eyewall replacement cycles.

If you can forecast ERCs on a storm without an eyewall yet then you either have a crystal ball or Max Mayfield has a job for you.

[mvtrucking]

Hey I do not like where you are pointing that arrow, it is not nice to point

don't worry there is nothing this time of year to turn it towards you

I would hope so, but of course that is just not true ...Charley and others come to mind....plus look at this historical map, crazy enough just to make it in the gulf but to make it all the way across?\

Interesting as only one got into the Gulf at all.(This makes me feel better for the Gulf coast anyway.

[CrazyC83]

If Chris becomes a hurricane tonight, it would be one of the biggest busts in NHC history....

I trust the pros enough not to expect a continued rapid intensification. This is one blow-up of convection. Tomorrow will tell much better.

That is my prediction though...hurricane by the 5 am advisory at the latest...

[Rainband]

Hey I do not like where you are pointing that arrow, it is not nice to point

don't worry there is nothing this time of year to turn it towards you

What does time of year have to do with it?

No fronts to yank it North or Ne

[dixiebreeze]

I don't see much in the way for wherever Chris decides to go:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg

[WmE]

If Chris becomes a hurricane tonight, it would be one of the biggest busts in NHC history....

I trust the pros enough not to expect a continued rapid intensification. This is one blow-up of convection. Tomorrow will tell much better.

That is my prediction though...hurricane by the 5 am advisory at the latest...

We'll see

[fci]

If Chris becomes a hurricane tonight, it would be one of the biggest busts in NHC history....

I trust the pros enough not to expect a continued rapid intensification. This is one blow-up of convection. Tomorrow will tell much better.

Think you are overstating this to possibly be one of the biggest "busts" in NHC history.

They are using all tools that are available but Hurricanes/Tropical Storms just can't be predicted except by "Mother Nature" and she ain't tellin!!

[Stratosphere747]

I don't see much in the way for wherever Chris decides to go:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg

Just some 10,000ft mountains, that would probably shorten Chris' lifespan.

[Ivanhater]

Hey I do not like where you are pointing that arrow, it is not nice to point

don't worry there is nothing this time of year to turn it towards you

What does time of year have to do with it?

No fronts to yank it North or Ne

Your Kidding right? Charley was not that long ago

[WindRunner]

It looks like they decided not to transmit this dataset

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like Chris is now in between the ULLs...This looks like the perfect set up with one Ull to the northeast and another to the northwest. Which the one to the northeast is helping to form a outflow jet...Shear looks alot weaker right now in this storm has fastly developed a cdo. I remember Isabel developed something like this. If the ULL to its west can keep backing away from it this could get very strong. The Enviroment is not perfect for a RIC yet but I would watch it. I think a track to the west-northwest through eastern PR...North of Hati/DR. At maybe 24 north. Then I think the ridge to the north will hold enough to pull it westward....I would watch this if you are in Southern Florida(Miami).

I think this could be a hurricane in 12 hours.

Now 60 mph
6 65 mph
12 75 mph(Possible)
24 80-85 mph
36 90 mph
48 100 mph
60 105 mph
72 110 mph

If the set up happens it could be stronger...Its a tricky forecast.

[StormsAhead]

Last set didn't come in again...

SXXX50 KNHC 012259
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 38 KNHC
2247. 1729N 06033W 00306 0037 180 037 226 226 038 00353 0000000000
2248 1728N 06032W 00305 0038 181 035 224 224 036 00353 0000000000
2248. 1727N 06031W 00304 0038 179 033 224 224 033 00353 0000000000
2249 1726N 06030W 00305 0039 182 033 216 216 035 00355 0000000000
2249. 1725N 06029W 00306 0041 183 032 220 220 033 00357 0000000000
2250 1724N 06028W 00305 0042 187 033 218 218 033 00357 0000000000
2250. 1723N 06027W 00304 0043 189 034 222 222 035 00358 0000000000
2251 1722N 06026W 00305 0045 194 034 222 222 036 00360 0000000000
2251. 1722N 06025W 00307 0046 193 033 226 226 034 00364 0000000000
2252 1722N 06023W 00303 0044 194 035 230 224 036 00358 0000000000
2252. 1723N 06022W 00304 0044 190 033 234 218 034 00358 0000000000
2253 1724N 06020W 00304 0044 184 031 238 212 032 00359 0000000000
2253. 1725N 06019W 00305 0043 176 029 236 236 030 00359 0000000000
2254 1725N 06017W 00306 0043 173 028 234 234 028 00360 0000000000
2254. 1726N 06016W 00305 0043 171 027 234 234 028 00359 0000000000
2255 1727N 06014W 00304 0043 168 031 240 232 031 00358 0000000000
2255. 1728N 06013W 00305 0044 165 031 240 226 031 00359 0000000000
2256 1728N 06011W 00305 0044 165 031 240 226 032 00360 0000000000
2256. 1729N 06010W 00304 0044 164 032 240 230 033 00359 0000000000
2257 1730N 06008W 00306 0044 164 033 238 236 033 00361 0000000000