Tropical cyclone 09s

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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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Tropical cyclone 09s

#1 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jan 22, 2006 8:20 am

22/0830 UTC 13.9S 56.5E T1.0/1.0 96S -- South Indian Ocean



Looking good this morning. I think it has a very good chance of becoming our next cyclone.
Last edited by Matt-hurricanewatcher on Tue Jan 24, 2006 9:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby WindRunner » Sun Jan 22, 2006 8:34 am

Matt, don't ever say "looking good" about a storm around here and don't post a picture. That's just cruel. Anyway, it is looking pretty good.

Image
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#3 Postby WindRunner » Sun Jan 22, 2006 8:43 am

Or a better picture yet.

Image

And someone else will have to find the outlook on the La Reunion site, I don't really understand French enough to work it 8-)
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#4 Postby P.K. » Sun Jan 22, 2006 12:14 pm

WindRunner wrote:And someone else will have to find the outlook on the La Reunion site, I don't really understand French enough to work it 8-)


Nothing on there yet.
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#5 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Jan 22, 2006 12:28 pm

P.K. wrote:
WindRunner wrote:And someone else will have to find the outlook on the La Reunion site, I don't really understand French enough to work it 8-)


Nothing on there yet.


if u kno spanish, french and spanich are very similar
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#6 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 22, 2006 12:54 pm

Image

Image
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#7 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Jan 22, 2006 2:37 pm

d= low pressure and A= high pressure?
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#8 Postby WindRunner » Sun Jan 22, 2006 3:52 pm

fact789 wrote:d= low pressure and A= high pressure?


In French, yes.
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#9 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Jan 22, 2006 4:18 pm

ok
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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 22, 2006 10:34 pm

Image

Image
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#11 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Jan 23, 2006 2:46 am

Wow it looks very good right now. A nice tight LLC with convection over it. With inlflow moving into the system. This is a cyclone already....(NOT OFFICALLY YET!)
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#12 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Jan 23, 2006 2:49 am

23/0230 UTC 15.4S 55.6E T1.5/1.5 96S -- South Indian Ocean
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#13 Postby Meso » Mon Jan 23, 2006 7:33 am

Will be watching this... It's about the closest I get to Cyclones (+3000 km away) :p Living at the bottom of South Africa and all.
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#14 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jan 23, 2006 8:33 am

Meso wrote:Will be watching this... It's about the closest I get to Cyclones (+3000 km away) :p Living at the bottom of South Africa and all.


Has there ever been a TC landfall in South Africa?
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#15 Postby Coredesat » Mon Jan 23, 2006 10:22 am

Image
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#16 Postby Coredesat » Mon Jan 23, 2006 10:25 am

WWIO21 KNES 231510
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN MTSAT IRNIGHT
.
JANUARY 23 2006 1430Z
.
16.7S 54.9E T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS 96S
.
PAST POSITIONS...15.4S 55.6E 23/0230Z VIS/IRDAY
14.3S 56.1E 22/1430Z IRNIGHT
ADD. POSITIONS...16.0S 54.8E 23/0939Z AMSRE 89
.
REMARKS...AMSRE PASS SHOWS NICE LLC NEAR THE NE EDGE OF
CONVECTION. SLOW PROGRESSION DUE SOUTH LEAVES CENTER VERY
NEAR CONVECTION FOR A SHEAR DT OF 3.0. HOWEVER... THE
CONVECTION CLUSTER IS SMALL AND ONLY BANDS .35 BASED ON
CURRENT LOCATION FOR A DT OF 2.5. PT IS MORE LIKE A
DEPRESSION SO PT IS 2.0. MET IS 2.5.
FT IS 2.0 BASED ON PT.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 23/2200Z.
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#17 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jan 23, 2006 1:16 pm

23/1430 UTC 16.7S 54.9E T2.0/2.0 96S -- South Indian Ocean


GETTING BETTER!
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#18 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jan 23, 2006 1:23 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.7S 54.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 280 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. A 231128Z AMSU-B
SATELLITE PASS REVEALED THE AREA OF CONVECTION COINCIDES WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM 231200Z INDICATE 10 TO 15 KNOTS OF WIND ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
DEVELOPING CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES RANGING BETWEEN 1009 MB AND
1011 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS
IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. GIVEN THE LIMITED EXTENT OF CONVECTION AND THE STILL ORGANIZING
CIRCULATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

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#19 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Jan 23, 2006 3:56 pm

HURAKAN wrote:23/1430 UTC 16.7S 54.9E T2.0/2.0 96S -- South Indian Ocean


GETTING BETTER!


what is that that u highlighted?
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#20 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Jan 23, 2006 4:51 pm

Can't believe france has not jumped on it yet. That looks very very good.
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