Cyclone Monica - Cat. 5

[benny]

As a counter argument for extremely low pressures.. the AMSU only technique never got below 932 mb:

http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu/2006/AMSU_ATC ... 232006.txt

second to last column is pressure. it isn't that small of a storm so the technique should be effective.. hmm..

[HURAKAN]

Since Tracy, how many cyclones have impacted Darwin?

[AussieMark]

I don't think any have made a direct strike on darwin since.

and very few have even come close enough to give gusty winds to darwin

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (MONICA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 11.3S 136.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S 136.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 11.3S 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 11.6S 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 12.3S 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 13.1S 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 136.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (MONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS DUE TO FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 23P WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AS IT
TRACKS WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, DECREASING AS IT MAKES LANDFALL. LAND
EFFECTS WILL THEN BEGIN TO BRING DOWN THE INTENSITY FROM TAU 36
THROUGH TAU 48. THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN
THE LATER TAUS AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER WESTERN AUST-
RALIA CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240300Z AND 241500Z.


[/b][/i]

[Scorpion]

Looks like Darwin will escape the brunt of this storm.

[CrazyC83]

This is really scary. They've got a storm with 175 mph sustained winds bearing down on them...

[Scorpion]

It will weaken significantly before(or if) it reaches Darwin.

[MiamiensisWx]

What does it matter if it weakens? You can still get some nasty damage, especially if the center passes VERY close to Darwin.

[Scorpion]

If it does what the projected path says, it would be a Cat 2 at most.

[CrazyC83]

Remember Katrina weakened and look at the damage it did...

[MiamiensisWx]

Do you think it would be a Category Two at highest due to land interaction, Scorpion?

[MiamiensisWx]

Remember Katrina weakened and look at the damage it did...

Exactly. Also, it dosn't take much of a shift to make a huge difference.

[CrazyC83]

I find it difficult to believe it will weaken to an Australian Cat 2 - or even an SS Cat 2. I think it will be an Australian Cat 4 or 5 right up to landfall, and at least an SS Cat 3.

[HURAKAN]

IN 36 TO 48 HOURS MONICA WILL BE AFFECTING THE DARWIN AREA. ANY DECISION SHOULD BE TAKEN NOW, OR IT WILL BE TOO LATE.

[skysummit]

Aren't we supposed to be using thumbnails?

[JamesFromMaine2]

the navy site has it at 130kts still when its just south of darwin thats still 150mph!

[skysummit]

CIMSS Java Loop

[MiamiensisWx]

CIMSS Java Loop

Wow!

[CrazyC83]

That is really a perfect circulation!

[HURAKAN]

THIS IS HAS BECOME TO SO POWERFUL THAT I THINK HAS CREATED ITS OWN ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH THERE IS NO CHANCE FOR WEAKENING EXCEPT CONTINENTAL LANDFALL. IT'S AMAZING HOW IT HAS BEEN ABLE TO REMAIN SO POWERFUL WITHOUT GIVING OUT. JUST AMAZING!