Cyclone Monica - Cat. 5

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HURAKAN
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#541 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Apr 23, 2006 5:15 pm

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:A city of that population( which is very small) needs to evacuate pretty much NOW!
Hey HURAKAN, after Monica moves through could you post that picture as an updated version, I like looking at Before and After photos.


That image appears in Wikipedia. So, I don't know if they would update it after the storm.
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#542 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun Apr 23, 2006 5:16 pm

probably not
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#543 Postby whereverwx » Sun Apr 23, 2006 5:17 pm

Here are three loops and a few pictures; to enlarge, click on it.

Loops:

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Pictures:

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#544 Postby P.K. » Sun Apr 23, 2006 5:18 pm

Are there any online radio stations from Darwin? The only one I've found (http://www.topfm.com.au/default2.php) seems to be mainly playing music but there must be a talk station covering this area? There was for Glenda further west.
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#545 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Apr 23, 2006 5:22 pm

http://www.ecocam.com.au/cameras/darhi.php

A webcam from Fannie Bay, Darwin, Australia. Beautiful beach and beautiful day so far. It updates every 5 seconds.

This is the map.
Image


Image
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#546 Postby milankovitch » Sun Apr 23, 2006 5:22 pm

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:A city of that population( which is very small) needs to evacuate pretty much NOW!
Hey HURAKAN, after Monica moves through could you post that picture as an updated version, I like looking at Before and After photos.


There's no where to go but the inland parts of Darwin. Darwin is in the middle of nowhere.
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#547 Postby Windspeed » Sun Apr 23, 2006 5:24 pm

First few images from daybreak are coming out. Still extremely organized and impressive CDO:

Image
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#548 Postby P.K. » Sun Apr 23, 2006 5:25 pm

Just a note to say when the high seas warnings say phenomenal seas they mean exceeding 14m. :eek:
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#549 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Apr 23, 2006 5:33 pm

I hope Monica arrives at daytime to see how the water rises in that webcam image.
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#550 Postby P.K. » Sun Apr 23, 2006 5:33 pm

Up another 5hPa to 915hPa.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 61
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:00 am CST Monday 24 April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities between CAPE
WESSEL and DALY RIVER MOUTH, including DARWIN, the TIWI ISLANDS, COBOURG
PENINSULA and JABIRU.

A CYCLONE WATCH extends southwest between DALY RIVER MOUTH and PORT KEATS.

The CYCLONE WARNING between NHULUNBUY and CAPE WESSEL has been cancelled.

At 7 am CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 5 was located about 80
kilometres north of ELCHO ISLAND, 180 kilometres northwest of NHULUNBUY and 520
kilometres east northeast of DARWIN, moving west at 13 kilometres per hour. The
cyclone will move further west and closer to the coast later today. The cyclone
is then expected to weaken slightly as it passes over the COBOURG PENINSULA
tonight, but will still be a SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE as it moves across the
northwest DARWIN-DALY and TIWI ISLANDS area during Tuesday.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica with gusts to 350
kilometres per hour is currently affecting the islands off the northeast Arnhem
Land coast and is expected to cross the north coast between MANINGRIDA and
CROKER ISLAND later today, and approach DARWIN-DALY and TIWI ISLAND area on
Tuesday afternoon.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour are currently being
experienced on the remaining islands about the northeast Arnhem Land coast, and
should extend further west to CAPE DON by tonight.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced on
the northeast Arnhem Land coast, and will extend westward ahead of the cyclone,
reaching the northwest DARWIN-DALY and TIWI ISLANDS area on Tuesday morning.

DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between
NHULUNBUY and ELCHO ISLAND this morning, extending westwards to GOULBURN ISLAND
later today.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas in northeastern Arnhem Land this morning, extending across the
remainder of the northern Top End during the day.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 7 am CST:
. Centre located near...... 11.3 degrees South 135.5 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west at 13 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 350 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 915 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is current between CAPE WESSEL and DALY RIVER
MOUTH, including DARWIN, TIWI ISLANDS, COBOURG PENINSULA and JABIRU.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends southwest to PORT KEATS.

The next advice will be issued at 11 am CST.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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#551 Postby apocalypt-flyer » Sun Apr 23, 2006 5:40 pm

My my, I've not online for two days and I miss out on THIS. Phenomenal cyclone. Annular, just amazing.
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CHRISTY

#552 Postby CHRISTY » Sun Apr 23, 2006 5:42 pm

This is the wind field, as estimated by IR. :eek:

Image
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#553 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Apr 23, 2006 5:42 pm

I'm not paying attion to the bom pressure...Watch the winds and the organizion of the storm. There pressure is not even in the ball park any more.
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#554 Postby Coredesat » Sun Apr 23, 2006 5:47 pm

Monica is about to cross into the SIO basin:

WWPS20 KNES 232120
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
MTSAT VIS/IRDAY SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN
.
APRIL 23 2006 2033Z
.
11.4S 135.5E T7.5/7.5/D1.0/24HRS MONICA (23P)
.
PAST POSITIONS....11.3S 137.2E 23/0733Z IRNIGHT
11.6S 138.2E 22/2033Z VIS/IRDAY
.
REMARKS....SYSTEM IS A LITTLE MORE RAGGED BUT THE CENTER IS STILL
SURROUNDED BY CMG WITH A OW EYE FOR A DT=7.0. MET AND PT WILL BE
THE BASIS FOR A FT OF 7.5.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 24/0400Z. NOTE: THE NEXT
BULLETIN WILL FOUND UNDER THE INDIAN OCEAN HEADER WWIO21 KNES AS
"MONICA" IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 135E.
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#555 Postby senorpepr » Sun Apr 23, 2006 5:47 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I'm not paying attion to the bom pressure...Watch the winds and the organizion of the storm. There pressure is not even in the ball park any more.


There pressure, while a little high in my opinion, isn't that far off. I would expect the pressure to be a little below 900mb...

Also... remember that BoM is the official source...
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CHRISTY

#556 Postby CHRISTY » Sun Apr 23, 2006 5:53 pm

Hey guys It seems that the relatively small windfield of Monica will help maintain intensity of the cyclone by minimizing friction with land.... :eek:


Image

and this theory is consistent with the latest forecast by JTWC....

REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 136.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (MONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS DUE TO FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 23P WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AS IT
TRACKS WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, DECREASING AS IT MAKES LANDFALL. LAND
EFFECTS WILL THEN BEGIN TO BRING DOWN THE INTENSITY FROM TAU 36
THROUGH TAU 48. THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN
THE LATER TAUS AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER WESTERN AUST-
RALIA CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240300Z AND 241500Z.//
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#557 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Apr 23, 2006 5:54 pm

According to the windfield, it will be better if Monica passes north of Darwin instead of south like the forecast says.
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#558 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Apr 23, 2006 5:56 pm

milankovitch wrote:
Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:A city of that population( which is very small) needs to evacuate pretty much NOW!
Hey HURAKAN, after Monica moves through could you post that picture as an updated version, I like looking at Before and After photos.


There's no where to go but the inland parts of Darwin. Darwin is in the middle of nowhere.


There are some small towns in the inland central part of the Northern Territory, but that's it.
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#559 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Apr 23, 2006 6:08 pm

FYI, a track south of Darwin is the best case scenario since southern hemisphere TC's spin clockwise, so the strongest side is the left.
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#560 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sun Apr 23, 2006 6:10 pm

This 10 page rule isn't effective, there needs to be at least 15-20 pages from what I see because there will be just too much clutter.



10,000 Post Katrina Thread and divide that into 10 Page Topics. See what I mean?
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