Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

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cycloneye
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Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 05, 2006 8:52 am

91w invest

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

A new invest pops up at the Western Pacific.But so far the invests that haved poped up in the past few days haved not done anything.Let's see what this new one does.
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue May 09, 2006 4:07 pm, edited 7 times in total.
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Fri May 05, 2006 8:56 am

Worth not even to look at it!!!
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#3 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri May 05, 2006 11:32 am

HURAKAN wrote:Worth not even to look at it!!!


Come on give the future him/her a chance....
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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Fri May 05, 2006 11:45 am

SouthFloridawx wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Worth not even to look at it!!!


Come on give the future him/her a chance....


I give it a good chance of not developing according to how it looks at the moment.
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#5 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri May 05, 2006 1:10 pm

I give it a zero zero percent chance of development. Why is the Navy making every cloud a invest? I mean it makes a invest pretty much worthless as long as they do this. I say put a invest on the Eastern Pacific low that might deserve it...Intill then they need to just stop!
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#6 Postby feederband » Fri May 05, 2006 1:13 pm

Ironic on this forum I am PRO-LIFE... :lol:
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#7 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri May 05, 2006 1:14 pm

Me to...
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MiamiensisWx

#8 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri May 05, 2006 1:24 pm

Actually, this may have a better chance than the other INVESTs that have popped up recently in the western Pacific. Although convection is somewhay lacking at the time, there is a well-defined circulation on imagery. This corresponds to a possible slow organization and consolidation later on. Don't be fooled by the lack of convection - the other INVESTs that have popped up had more and supposedly better organized convection but poofed. Also, unlike the other INVESTs that have cropped up in the past few days, this one is in an environment of lower shear than the others. In fact, only around 10KT of shear exists over it now. Look at the shear map here. See the low shear environment it is in?

With that said, coupled with the well-defined outflow that indicates a center may be developing and slowly consolidating, don't count this one out yet. This will be good practice for the Atlantic and eastern Pacific seasons coming up as well. Remember: looks can be VERY deceiving! With that said, I think slow development of this system is very possible. Who agrees?
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#9 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri May 05, 2006 1:30 pm

Based on my opinion above, I think we should give this time. I think this may be one of our first better western Pacific candidates for development. Any thoughts?
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CHRISTY

#10 Postby CHRISTY » Fri May 05, 2006 1:30 pm

:(
Last edited by CHRISTY on Fri May 05, 2006 1:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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MiamiensisWx

#11 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri May 05, 2006 1:33 pm

CHRISTY, that is NOT in the western Pacific and is NOT INVEST 91W which I am referring to. Please post that in the thread with the (understandably misleading) title on the system near Panama. You can discuss the system near 120W in that thead. Thanks!
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#12 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri May 05, 2006 1:37 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Worth not even to look at it!!!


Be patient, my friend. Give it time. Actually, I think it has a better chance. See what I wrote above...

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Actually, this may have a better chance than the other INVESTs that have popped up recently in the western Pacific. Although convection is somewhay lacking at the time, there is a well-defined circulation on imagery. This corresponds to a possible slow organization and consolidation later on. Don't be fooled by the lack of convection - the other INVESTs that have popped up had more and supposedly better organized convection but poofed. Also, unlike the other INVESTs that have cropped up in the past few days, this one is in an environment of lower shear than the others. In fact, only around 10KT of shear exists over it now. Look at the shear map here. See the low shear environment it is in?

With that said, coupled with the well-defined outflow that indicates a center may be developing and slowly consolidating, don't count this one out yet. This will be good practice for the Atlantic and eastern Pacific seasons coming up as well. Remember: looks can be VERY deceiving! With that said, I think slow development of this system is very possible. Who agrees?


I expect some convection to possibly start forming soon and consolidating a bit.
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#13 Postby HurricaneBill » Fri May 05, 2006 1:37 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I give it a zero zero percent chance of development. Why is the Navy making every cloud a invest? I mean it makes a invest pretty much worthless as long as they do this. I say put a invest on the Eastern Pacific low that might deserve it...Intill then they need to just stop!


I read that Super Typhoon Gordon in 1989 evolved from a single cumulonimbus cloud.
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CHRISTY

#14 Postby CHRISTY » Fri May 05, 2006 1:37 pm

just saw it! Not that very impressive at the moment.
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MiamiensisWx

#15 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri May 05, 2006 1:39 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:I read that Super Typhoon Gordon in 1989 evolved from a single cumulonimbus cloud.


That's part of my point.

CHRISTY wrote:just saw it! 0 chance.....


Please read my post above on this western Pacific system. Thanks.
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#16 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri May 05, 2006 1:40 pm

It may have a chance if it can develop some convetion.
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#17 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri May 05, 2006 1:40 pm

CHRISTY wrote:just saw it! Not that very impressive at the moment.


True... but the key words are "at the moment". Do you agree with my thoughts on this system back up a bit?
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MiamiensisWx

#18 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri May 05, 2006 1:40 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:It may have a chance if it can develop some convetion.


I agree. I think we may see some convection development start soon.
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CHRISTY

#19 Postby CHRISTY » Fri May 05, 2006 1:44 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:It may have a chance if it can develop some convetion.


I agree. I think we may see some convection development start soon.
Honestly the image i posted early of the tropical wave to me i think might have a better chance.its in the other thread now. :roll:
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MiamiensisWx

#20 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri May 05, 2006 1:45 pm

I never said this had a better chance, CHRISTY. Calm down. Let's not have an argument. We are ALL watching these systems!
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