Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

[Weatherfreak000]

Wow, this thing really may have a good shot here.

I'm kinda surprised but still skeptical, someone post a water vapor of that area?

Water Vapor Image

Thanks.


Well it looks alot better and the air around it looks moist, I suppose shear has really been the only factor haltering having the first typhoon of the season. I wonder how things are gonna play out but one way or the other time is gonna run out on this thing if it doens't spin up.

[CHRISTY]

yep looking somewhat better organized this morning....here's an IR image.

[MiamiensisWx]

Shear seems to be a bit more tolerable now, and outflow is established and the synoptic environment is fairly moist. I think slow development, especially due to the consolidation now, is very possible. Who agrees?

[senorpepr]

From Typhoon2000.com

Tropical Cyclone Formation is possible within the next 12 to 24 hours.

T2K Tropical Cyclone Watch [As of 8:00 PM May 08]:
Active LPA (91W/1004 mb) near 8.8N 136.4E or 1,150 km East of Surigao Del Norte

PAGASA is hardly mentioning it (which is normal for their operations).

JMA has it officially as a tropical depression... (Remember, JMA is the official met office here -- not the JTWC)

Surface Chart

WWJP25 RJTD 081200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 081200.
WARNING VALID 091200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA EAST CHINA SEA NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 27N 130E 31N 130E
35N 140E 42N 143E 46N 150E 55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 37N 180E 30N
155E 27N 130E.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 09N 136E WNW SLOWLY.
LOW 1016 HPA AT 40N 149E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 41N 132E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 47N 152E ESE 10 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 44N 170E SE 10 KT.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 40N 149E TO 40N 150E 40N 151E.
WARM FRONT FROM 40N 151E TO 39N 153E 39N 157E.
COLD FRONT FROM 40N 151E TO 37N 148E 35N 144E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 35N 144E TO 32N 136E 30N 135E 28N 132E 27N 130E
25N 127E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[senorpepr]

Links are posted to the S2K Worldwide Tropical Update:


http://tropicalupdate.storm2k.org/
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/wpac.htm


BTW, should this be named... it will be called Chanchu. It's a Chinese name, given by the Macauese, meaning "pearl".

[Coredesat]

Still needs to get better organized, but both NRL and JMA say this is TD 02W.

[cycloneye]

The first long range forecast for this system.

TD 2w Graphic forecast

[cycloneye]

SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081051Z MAY 06//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN31 PGTW 082100
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 8.6N 135.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.6N 135.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 8.5N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 9.1N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 10.1N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 11.2N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 13.3N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 8.6N 134.9E.

THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 081051Z
MAY 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 081100 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN



Above is the text of the first warning for TD2w.

[CHRISTY]

Here are a few images of our new TD.

[Jim Hughes]

I thought that I would point out to everyone that this TD has formed right after the solar wind peaked above 500 km/sec level. The highest 1hour average was 643 km/sec at 07z on the 7th. It has since dropped to the 520 km/sec range.

We have been under the influence of this coronal windstream since mid day on the 6th.

I have written about this possible relationship before. In reference to both tropical development and enhancement.

Look under the solar wind bulk speed heading.

http://www.sel.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/ac ... pam_1h.txt


Jim

[cycloneye]

08/2133 UTC 8.2N 133.2E T1.5/1.5 02W -- West Pacific Ocean

[cycloneye]

00:00z NRL update=35kts,997 mbs



Increasing organization of the system is evident with the estimated drop in pressure and the increase of the winds at the 00:00z update.

[whereverwx]

It looks pretty healthy!

[Jim Cantore]

Nice looking system there

[cycloneye]

Yes Calamity,it looks like it will be named Chanchu or overnight or in the morning if the organization continues.

[Jim Cantore]

Chanchu eh, how is that pronounced?

[HURAKAN]

Finally the WPAC is waking up from a long sleep. Let the real season begin!!!!

[HurricaneHunter914]

Hope the Philippines is safe cause it looks like it is headed there way.

[cycloneye]

SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 02W WARNING NR 002
WTPN31 PGTW 090300
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 8.1N 133.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.1N 133.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 7.8N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 8.5N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 9.4N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 10.4N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 12.5N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.0N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.9N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 8.0N 132.9E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN



It's now a storm and forecast to become the first Typhoon of the WPAC 2006 season.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Why am I not suprised?