Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

[cycloneye]

Here is the graphic with the latest forecast.Goes directly to the center of Luzon as a typhoon.

[Jim Cantore]

I wouldn't be suprised if this because a pretty strong typhoon, like 120-130mph

[JonathanBelles]

^^^^^^^^it says TS 02w, isnt it chanchu?

[CHRISTY]

This thing is looking good. I say typhoon in 24 to 48 hrs.

Here's a visible image!

[cycloneye]

^^^^^^^^it says TS 02w, isnt it chanchu?

Although it's a Tropical Storm now at 35kts the name is not given yet until it reaches 45kts or 50kts I think it works that way over there.

[JonathanBelles]

thanks

[senorpepr]

^^^^^^^^it says TS 02w, isnt it chanchu?

Although it's a Tropical Storm now at 35kts the name is not given yet until it reaches 45kts or 50kts I think it works that way over there.

It isn't given a name until it is officially upgraded to tropical storm status. Since the Japan Meteorological Agency is the official agency over the WPAC, it won't be until they say it is 35kt of greater.

Of course, since the JMA, like the rest of the world excluding the USA, uses 10-min average wind speeds, 02W won't be upgraded until it reaches 40kt (by US standard).

[cycloneye]

Thanks Mike for making the clarification about that.

[wxmann_91]

Things look all toward rapid intensification for this storm. There is a TUTT moving away from the storm, a trough enhancing poleward outflow, and an anticyclone right over the system. IMO, over the next 48-72 hours, this could intensity into a formidable typhoon, perhaps a Supertyphoon within the next 96 hours. This area is also climatologically favorable for spawning some of the worst strong supertyphoons for the Phillipines, such as Zeb and Babs in 1998 and Nina in 2004.

[CHRISTY]

CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED....

[SouthFloridawx]

The T #'s rising back up the images posted above.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... anh11.html

[CHRISTY]

I think we are dealing with a developing MONSTER!

[CHRISTY]

HERE'S ANOTHER COUPLE OF GREAT LOOPS OF THIS GROWING MONSTER....

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamircolor.html

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guampalau.html

[wxmann_91]

Things look all toward rapid intensification for this storm. There is a TUTT moving away from the storm, a trough enhancing poleward outflow, and an anticyclone right over the system. IMO, over the next 48-72 hours, this could intensity into a formidable typhoon, perhaps a Supertyphoon within the next 96 hours. This area is also climatologically favorable for spawning some of the worst strong supertyphoons for the Phillipines, such as Zeb and Babs in 1998 and Nina in 2004.

Of course the one caveat being land. If this scenario is going to happen it had better gain latitude quick...

[Dave C]

Looking at latest sat. pics. seems to be fighting easterly shear for now. Here's a observation point near the forecast landfall point in Phillipines.
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/RPVM.html
Will repost it when the system is within 12 hrs of landfall(unless track changes).

[cycloneye]

09/0833 UTC 8.1N 132.3E T2.5/2.5 02W -- West Pacific Ocean

[no advance]

Matt you missed this one. I give it a zero zero percent chance of development. Why is the Navy making every cloud a invest? I mean it makes a invest pretty much worthless as long as they do this. I say put a invest on the Eastern Pacific low that might deserve it...Intill then they need to just stop!

[CHRISTY]

CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AS YOU CAN SEE ON THIS IR IMAGE....

[cycloneye]

Christy already that image has been posted by you 7 posts up.

[senorpepr]

ZCZC 761
WTPQ20 RJTD 090900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090900UTC 08.0N 132.3E POOR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 100900UTC 08.2N 130.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT =
NNNN