Tropical Storm Alberto

[karenfromheaven]

One other thing, please explain to me how this storm could possibly produce an 8-10 ft storm surge. Even if it had 70 mph winds, they'd be blowing from east to west on the northeast side of the storm - away from land. On the south and southeast side of the LLC the winds are SW 25-35 kts at best. That kind of flow will produce a setup tide of 2-3 feet at most. There just aren't any large areas of strong wind blowing toward the coast.

Nice call! Tides at the Cedar Key station are only 2 ft above normal at the moment.
CO-OPS Storm Surge Live: http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plotcomp.shtml?station_info=8727520+Cedar+Key,+FL#

[brunota2003]

How can it still not be tropical??? There is no front connected to it...it is warm core...and the winds are around 70 MPH...how is it not tropical? do you really think the NHC would keep something listed as tropical if it was not??? heck no...

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

This thing CAN'T still be tropical.

I'm surprised the NHC is still thinking Alberto will become a hurricane.

[CHRISTY]

This will most likely be down graded in the coming hours....its nothing but a naked swirl..dont get me wrong just because there are no thunderstorms near the center it doesnt mean there isnt strong winds cause there is.

[quandary]

Well, this storm looks terrible on satellite. It might be able to generate some decent sustained winds and gusts, but it certainlly has no structural potential to strengthen. The way the clouds are currently aligned it doesn't seem like there's any place for a convective burst to develop and turn this thing into a hurricane. Although I guess just a slight increase in the winds through some sort of baroclinic process could make this thing technically a hurricane.

[quandary]

Looks subtropical really. Shares both tropical and extratropical characteristics, at least by appearance. But it certainly isn't extratropical yet, I would think and they never downgrade something from tropical to sub-tropical, so I'd just keep it as a tropical storm.

[Noles2006]

One other thing, please explain to me how this storm could possibly produce an 8-10 ft storm surge. Even if it had 70 mph winds, they'd be blowing from east to west on the northeast side of the storm - away from land. On the south and southeast side of the LLC the winds are SW 25-35 kts at best. That kind of flow will produce a setup tide of 2-3 feet at most. There just aren't any large areas of strong wind blowing toward the coast.

Nice call! Tides at the Cedar Key station are only 2 ft above normal at the moment.
CO-OPS Storm Surge Live: http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plotcomp.shtml?station_info=8727520+Cedar+Key,+FL#

Landfall is still hours away and high tides aren't for another few hours as well. If they're already 2 feet above normal, I'm betting they'll be higher within the next 12 hours...

[SouthFloridawx]

One other thing, please explain to me how this storm could possibly produce an 8-10 ft storm surge. Even if it had 70 mph winds, they'd be blowing from east to west on the northeast side of the storm - away from land. On the south and southeast side of the LLC the winds are SW 25-35 kts at best. That kind of flow will produce a setup tide of 2-3 feet at most. There just aren't any large areas of strong wind blowing toward the coast.

Nice call! Tides at the Cedar Key station are only 2 ft above normal at the moment.
CO-OPS Storm Surge Live: http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plotcomp.shtml?station_info=8727520+Cedar+Key,+FL#

Landfall is still hours away and high tides aren't for another few hours as well. If they're already 2 feet above normal, I'm betting they'll be higher within the next 12 hours...

And the pressure has dropped almost 10mb in an hour.

[Cyclenall]

Did anyone hear Jay leno? He had 4 jokes about Tropical Storm Alberto. He thought is was a hurricane at first but corrected himself.

[ronjon]

One other thing, please explain to me how this storm could possibly produce an 8-10 ft storm surge. Even if it had 70 mph winds, they'd be blowing from east to west on the northeast side of the storm - away from land. On the south and southeast side of the LLC the winds are SW 25-35 kts at best. That kind of flow will produce a setup tide of 2-3 feet at most. There just aren't any large areas of strong wind blowing toward the coast.

Nice call! Tides at the Cedar Key station are only 2 ft above normal at the moment.
CO-OPS Storm Surge Live: http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plotcomp.shtml?station_info=8727520+Cedar+Key,+FL#

Tide only 2 feet above normal because wind still out of the E at Cedar Key. Look at Venice to the south - winds already picking up from the south - this will start to pile water into the bays and coastline later tonite. Winds will gradually veer to the S-SW up the coastline as the storm gains latitude.

STATION/POSITION TEMP WIND PRES WAVE SWELL
(F) DEG/KT/KT) (MB) HT/PER HT/PER
AIR SEA DIR (FT/S) (FT/S)
CEDAR KEY 72 90/ 32/ 38 1007.7F
28.5N 84.5W 78 78 120/ 19/ 23 995.8F 15/10 8/10
VENICE 82 82 150/ 31/ 36 1009.3F

[Brent]

This storm looks absolutely horrid. I SERIOUSLY doubt it even has 70 mph winds now, and it's going downhill from here. All the significant stuff is already onshore.

[Noles2006]

I want to go to bed, but I can't! Been waiting since January for Hurricane Season... and it's here... and there's a TS in my backyard.... but I need sleep... ARGH!

[SouthFloridawx]

This storm looks absolutely horrid. I SERIOUSLY doubt it even has 70 mph winds now, and it's going downhill from here. All the significant stuff is already onshore.

oh great it just heard you... now wait for another burst of convection.

[Noles2006]

Brent... I've thought the same all afternoon about Alberto... but recon keeps sending back some pretty decent wind reports... (even though the bouy's around the system say differently)... lol, and the NHC STILL predicts it to reach Hurricane strength!

['CaneFreak]

Before anybody goes to bed or anything else, you ought to have a look at these new buoy observations....the pressure the NHC had on the advisory are correct....and the pressure is still falling @ this buoy location....

[stormtruth]

Never doubt Alberto, the Seabiscuit of tropical storms. Many doubted Alberto last night and all were wrong.

[SouthFloridawx]

Before anybody goes to bed or anything else, you ought to have a look at these new buoy observations....the pressure the NHC had on the advisory are correct....and the pressure is still falling @ this buoy location....

what location?

['CaneFreak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42036

['CaneFreak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42036

[Brent]

Brent... I've thought the same all afternoon about Alberto... but recon keeps sending back some pretty decent wind reports... (even though the bouy's around the system say differently)... lol, and the NHC STILL predicts it to reach Hurricane strength!

See, I don't think the typical reduction applies here. In order to use the 90% one, you need deep convection.