#56 Postby kenl01 » Tue Aug 01, 2006 6:25 am
Unlikely to strengthen rapidly anytime soon. AccuWx had a pretty good summary as to why:
"While Chris may strengthen somewhat over the next couple of days, rapid intensification appears to be unlikely. This is because Chris will face several obstacles during his west to northwestward track. First will come a pocket of dry air in the atmosphere, some of which will likely wrap into the circulation of the tropical storm. There is also the issue of wind shear. There are currently two areas of upper-level low pressure, one that is doing some shearing of Chris right now, and another over the Bahamas that could also come into play. However, many forecast models suggest these lows will weaken, and there is a path Chris could follow by which he would avoid much of the destructive wind shear. Finally, and perhaps most significantly, is the possibility of interaction with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Many strong systems, or storms that had the potential to strengthen, have been stopped in their tracks by the mountainous terrain of these two Caribbean islands. At this time, Chris is forecast to track north of the islands, but a deviation farther to the west would significantly weaken the storm or destroy it altogether."
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