WPAC: Typhoon Saomai (0608)

cheezyWXguy · #21 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:59 am

maybe the fujiwara effect?

#22 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 10:51 am

TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI LOCAL STATEMENT
GUZ001-002-003-004-051700-
TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
100 AM GUAM LST SUN AUG 6 2006

...TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI CONTINUES HEADING TO THE MARIANAS...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE
MARIANA ISLANDS.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN
AND SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1250 AM GUAM LST...1450Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI
WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
146.2 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 110 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
165 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
170 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN.

TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH.

...GUAM..ROTA..TINIAN AND SAIPAN...
REVIEW YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN AND CHECK EMERGENCY SUPPLIES
OF FOOD AND WATER. SECURE OUTSIDE FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS
IN YOUR YARD. FILL YOUR VEHICLES WITH GAS. GATHER CONTAINERS FOR
DRINKING WATER STORAGE AND PREPARE YOUR BATHTUB FOR WATER STORAGE.
RESIDENTS OF GUAM SHOULD REMEMBER THAT HEAVY RAIN MAY AFFECT WATER
PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN GUAM DUE TO SILT IN FENA RESERVOIR. CHECK
SUPPLIES OF PRESCRIPTION DRUGS. MOVE SMALL BOATS TO SAFE HAVEN.

BEAR IN MIND THAT TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI IS FORECAST TO PASS ROTA
CHANNEL THIS SUNDAY MORNING. PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD
BE COMPLETED AT THIS TIME.

AT 12 MIDNIGHT SUNDAY...GOVERNOR FELIX CAMACHO DECLARED GUAM IN
CONDITION OF READINESS 1. GOVERNOR FITIAL IN THE CNMI HAS PLACED
ROTA IN TROPICAL STORM CONDITION 2...TINIAN AND SAIPAN IN TROPICAL
STORM CONDITION 3.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. BE
PREPARED FOR MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SURF WILL LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS AT 9 TO 12 FEET TODAY...AND
CONTINUE AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY. LOCAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3 AM GUAM LST.

$$

AHN

#23 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 11:29 am

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUAM AND THE NORTHERN MARIANAS.

05/1433 UTC 12.5N 146.0E T3.5/3.5 SAOMAI -- West Pacific Ocean

#24 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 4:02 pm

TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI LOCAL STATEMENT
GUZ001-002-003-004-052100-
TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
500 AM GUAM LST SUN AUG 6 2006

...TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI IS VERY CLOSE TO GUAM AND ROTA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE
MARIANA ISLANDS.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN
AND SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 450 AM GUAM LST...1850Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.2 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 30 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
35 MILES SOUTH OF ROTA
100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN
110 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN.

TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.

...GUAM..ROTA..TINIAN AND SAIPAN...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE COMPLETED. KEEP OUTSIDE
FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS SECURED. SMALL BOATS SHOULD REMAIN
IN SAFE HAVEN. TROPICAL STORM SAOMAI IS FORECAST TO PASS VERY CLOSE
TO ROTA THIS SUNDAY MORNING.

GUAM IS IN CONDITION OF READINESS 1. ALL INBOUND AND OUTBOUND
CONTINENTAL EXPRESS FLIGHTS HAVE BEEN CANCELED FOR TODAY. ALL OTHER
FLIGHTS ARE SCHEDULED ON TIME. THE AIRPORT AUTHORITY CONTINUES TO
OPERATE THE AIRPORT. FOR MORE INFORMATION...CONTACT THE JOINT
INFORMATION CENTER AT 475-9701 THROUGH 9705.

IN CNMI...ROTA IS IN TROPICAL STORM CONDITION 1. TINIAN AND SAIPAN
REMAIN IN TROPICAL STORM CONDITION 3.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. BE
PREPARED FOR MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SURF WILL LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS AT 9 TO 12 FEET TODAY...AND
CONTINUE AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY. LOCAL
FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 7 AM GUAM LST.

$$

AHN

#25 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Aug 05, 2006 4:11 pm

WindRunner wrote:Won't that put it pretty close to Maria in 72hrs?

Yes, it'll be 7.8E 2.0S of Maria at 72hrs, with both as STSs. That should be close enough for a little interaction between the two.

I've put together an image showing the forecast centres of these systems. I've also looked at the approximate distances between them at each forecast point. Note that the final point on this image has Maria at 55kts, and Saomai at 65kts.

T+0: 1500km
T+24: 1200km
T+48: 1000km
T+72: 800km

#26 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Aug 06, 2006 5:18 am

45kts.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0608 SAOMAI (0608)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060900UTC 16.3N 142.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 22KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 070900UTC 20.2N 138.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
45HF 080600UTC 22.4N 135.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
69HF 090600UTC 25.7N 132.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT

#27 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Aug 06, 2006 5:45 am

I've also added markers for these systems on the same satellite image.

mtm4319 · #28 Postby **mtm4319** » Sun Aug 06, 2006 4:44 pm

Now Typhoon Saomai according to whatever service Weather Underground uses.

Strengthening, and moving faster now at 19mph... could be another monster for China unfortunately.

#29 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sun Aug 06, 2006 4:53 pm

i think they are using a one minute average

mtm4319 · #30 Postby **mtm4319** » Sun Aug 06, 2006 4:56 pm

The title on the NHC floater also says Typhoon Saomai.

Talk about active. :eek:

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #31 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Aug 06, 2006 4:57 pm

5.0/5.0t its very much so a typhoon....

#32 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sun Aug 06, 2006 4:57 pm

yes but the nhc also uses the one minute average

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #33 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Aug 06, 2006 5:00 pm

I do to...5.0=90 knots or a cat2 if it was in the Eastern Pacific or Atlatnic.

#34 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Aug 06, 2006 5:03 pm

Still 50kts from RSMC Tokyo although it has been upgraded to a Severe Tropical Storm since I last posted an advisory.

WTPQ20 RJTD 062100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0608 SAOMAI (0608)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 062100UTC 17.4N 140.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
30KT 190NM
FORECAST
24HF 072100UTC 19.9N 135.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
45HF 081800UTC 22.5N 132.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
69HF 091800UTC 25.1N 128.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT =

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #35 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Aug 06, 2006 5:05 pm

They are way low...

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #36 Postby **senorpepr** » Sun Aug 06, 2006 5:53 pm

For links concerning Saomai (0608), check out the S2K Worldwide Tropical Update page at...

http://tropicalupdate.storm2k.org
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/wpac.htm

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #37 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:04 pm

With looking at this 85h data this thing looks to be 75 knots like the JTWC has it now.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

#38 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Aug 07, 2006 4:19 am

T0608 (SAOMAI)
Issued at 06:00 UTC 7 Aug 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0608 SAOMAI (0608) UPGRADED FROM STS

ANALYSIS
PSTN 070600UTC 18.8N 138.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 200NM

FORECAST
24HF 080600UTC 21.4N 133.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
48HF 090600UTC 24.1N 129.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
72HF 100600UTC 26.8N 126.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT

#39 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Aug 07, 2006 5:14 pm

70kts

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0608 SAOMAI (0608)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 072100UTC 20.8N 134.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 082100UTC 24.6N 128.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
45HF 091800UTC 26.5N 124.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
69HF 101800UTC 27.8N 118.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #40 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Aug 07, 2006 9:22 pm

Visible shows a cyclone becoming better organized. Shear looks to have decreased with very good outflow over the south and southeastern quads. A pin hole eye forming. T numbers are 5.0 which is 90 knots...I will say 80 knots for now.

Now 80 knots
6 90 knots
12 95 knots
24 100 knots

Everything looks good for this to strengthing.
Once the eye clears up the winds should catch up to the 5.0.

WPAC: Typhoon Saomai (0608)

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