WPAC: Typhoon Saomai (0608)

[Cyclenall]

That looks really nasty. Those cloud tops that are black, if they wrap around the eye then what's next? I expect a major typhoon and who knows, maybe even a super typhoon could come out of this.

I have noticed that WPAC tropical cyclones have higher cloud tops then the Atlantic almost every time due to the black convection on the AVN.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That thing looks like katrina when its eye was coming out. This baby is at least 120 knots.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Saomai is looking annular tonight, but without the big round eye.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

Based on this in overall system...I would say it is now a cat4=115 knots.

I say if this keeps up this can become the first cat5.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Now if you did not get enough looking at Katrina's and Rita's last year here is another one.

[miamicanes177]

Oh man this thing is COOKIN! Holy cow it looks impressive. Check out the newly updated image at NRL. Raw T#'s coming in at 6.5 or 146mph. This will be a cat 5 in no time.

[HurricaneHunter914]

What major cities are going to be affected by Saomai?

[f5]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc06/WPAC/08W.SAOMAI/vis/geo/1km_zoom/full/Latest.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Cdo has become less organized. But overall eye has become better....This update will keep the winds at 115 knots.0

[Cyclenall]

The Cdo has become less organized. But overall eye has become better....This update will keep the winds at 115 knots.0

Yes, the overall system has become less organized but the eye is still clearing. I think it will re-organize in 6 hours.

[Coredesat]

What major cities are going to be affected by Saomai?

It's heading for the same areas affected by Bilis and Kaemi.

[Cyclenall]

It's now at 105 Knots. I'd say it's at that strength if not higher. Very beautiful tropical cyclone here. The eye is almost totally cleared with organization improving.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

09/0233 UTC 24.2N 127.7E T6.0/6.0 SAOMAI

[TheEuropean]

NRL has it now at 125 kt:

[P.K.]

Well it has deepened another 20hPa, up to 90kts now.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0608 SAOMAI (0608)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090600UTC 24.7N 126.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 160NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 100600UTC 27.0N 120.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
48HF 110600UTC 30.0N 114.5E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

[HURAKAN]

09/0833 UTC 25.1N 126.1E T7.0/7.0 SAOMAI -- West Pacific Ocean

GOING DEEP!!! 140 KNOTS!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I rise my winds to 135 knots...

Almost a cat5!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That island it just passed to the north...Most likely got zotted.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow this thing is moving fast...This thing could hit as a cat5.

[P.K.]

I can't see RSMC Tokyo increasing this to much more than 100kts if that. That Dvorak estimate would give a 107kt wind estimate based on the Dvorak scale that Aslkahuna posted a while ago. Even the CIMSS ADT is currently only a 6.0, or 100kts.